The Rams signed Davante Adams to a two-year deal worth up to $46 million on Sunday. It’s a hefty, albeit not long-term, investment in the 32-year-old WR, who figures to take Cooper Kupp‘s spot as the WR2 in this offense. The Rams are looking to trade Kupp and could outright cut him if they can’t find a partner, and, as of now, we don’t know where he’ll be playing next year. Regardless, let’s dig into what this signing means for fantasy football.
DAVANTE ADAMS
- Adams is still a highly capable target earner, as evidenced by his 29% seasonal target share last year and 10+ target per-game average in each of the previous two seasons. His efficiency has slipped since entering his 30s, but much of the blame for that lies with his QBs with the Raiders and Jets. Matthew Stafford will be the best QB Adams has had since Packers-era Rodgers, and his target-earning ability — he was still at 0.29 targets per route run last year, sixth among all players with 100+ targets — indicates he still has something left in the tank.
- However, Puka Nacua is the unquestioned WR1 here despite the Adams signing. Adams was sixth among all players with 100+ targets in TPRR; Puka was first. He finished the season with 10 consecutive weeks of at least a 30% target share, which is truly an unprecedented combination of volume and consistency. He averaged 9.3 yards per target despite shouldering a massive load and has ascended into one of the ~5-6 best WRs in football, a tier that Adams has likely fallen out of in his current state.
- Still, this is such a concentrated passing offense that Adams can still be a high-end fantasy asset even as the clear WR2. The Rams’ 10.2% target share to RBs was the lowest in football by 1.2 percentage points, and their 15.3% TE target share was the fifth-lowest mark. Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson aren’t roster locks, and Davis Allen hasn’t ascended. The Rams did just pay Tutu Atwell $10 million, an interesting decision with the Adams signing on the horizon, but he hasn’t broken past a rotational role yet. Nacua can control a high-20s target share with Adams in the mid-20s, and there’s an additional ceiling on top of that simply because of how much Stafford peppers his top weapons.
PUKA NACUA
- As mentioned above, Nacua’s stretch of 10 straight games with at least a 30% target share was absolutely unheard of. While Adams will likely earn more targets than Cooper Kupp did over the second half of the season, Nacua led all players in TPRR with a gaudy 0.38 mark (among all players with 10+ routes for the entire season). We’ve seen Stafford send ridiculous volume to one WR before with Calvin Johnson, Kupp, and now Nacua, and while Adams is going to get his targets, Nacua is the WR1 here and the primary beneficiary of Stafford’s “kingmaker” reputation. With a lesser WR2 instead of Adams, he had a realistic argument to be the overall WR1 in fantasy leagues; this trade likely cements him in the mid-to-late first round.
OTHER RAMS PLAYERS
- We knew it already, but this marks the end of Kupp’s time as a Ram. We’ll see where he ends up, but he turns 32 years old in June and saw his production fall off a cliff down the stretch last year (10 catches over his last five active games). He has a fairly lengthy injury history and may not have much left in the tank. There are certainly landing spots where he could fall into triple-digit targets like late-career Adam Thielen, but the glory days are certainly over.
- Atwell’s contract inspired a glimmer of hope that he had a path to fantasy relevancy, but he’s now at least one injury away for 2025. He did earn 0.25 targets per route run in 2024 with 9.1 yards per target, but he hasn’t shown the ability to sustain that efficiency in a full-time role. Demarcus Robinson is at risk of missing 2025 games stemming from a legal incident, but even if he’s out/gone, Jordan Whittington could push Atwell for playing time too.
- This is a boost for Stafford simply because he has another high-caliber weapon, but his lack of rushing ability prevents him from ever really being a difference-maker at the QB position for fantasy.
