Week 8 Recap

Week 8 was defined by Mike Evans and his 42.8 PPR points. This was the second week in a row the model identified the top scoring WR of the week. And frankly that’s the measure I care about — far more than the overall hit rate — because it means you probably won some cash if you rostered him in a GPP.

 

Here are the full results for Week 8:

Player Team Projection Week 8
Mike Williams LAC 12.4 9.9
Sterling Shepard NYG 12 OUT
Odell Beckham CLE 11.8 10.2
Mark Andrews BAL 11.7 BYE
Anthony Miller CHI 11.5 9.7
Mike Evans TB 11.3 42.8
Travis Kelce KC 11.1 16.3
Demaryius Thomas NYJ 10.6 11.3
Robby Anderson NYJ 10.4 8.3
Preston Williams MIA 10.4 8.2
Larry Fitzgerald ARI 9.6 2.8
Keenan Allen LAC 9.2 12.3
Jamison Crowder NYJ 9.1 5.4
Robert Woods LAR 8.8 6.2
James Washington PIT 8.8 3.1
Evan Engram NYG 8.7 14
Jason Witten DAL 8.1 BYE

 

 

Week 9

The Buy-Low model uses target share and air yards to estimate a player’s expected production in the passing game, then highlights the players that underperformed relative to expectation. The key insight behind the model is that opportunity is sticky and production (in the form of catches and touchdowns) is not. You want to buy the signal and fade the noise, and the model helps us do just that.

The out of sample r-squared for the model for this week is 0.56 (down 1 point from 0.57 last week).

Editor’s Note: Before using the model, we strongly suggest everyone read Josh’s article introducing the concept here. We also recommend you listen to his interview with Adam Levitan in Episode 4 of the ETR podcast.

In general, pay most attention to the projection column as it reflects the value of the opportunity each player received. The next piece of information you should weigh is the size of the difference between what the model says a normal game from this player should be given his opportunity, and his actual performance in the recent past. The larger this difference, the greater the chance that the public will be fading the player, making him low-owned. And while we might be tempted to infer that larger differences might lead to a stronger “rubber band” regression effect, it’s typically the case that what dominates is the opportunity.

 

KEY

* Projection = The full-PPR projection the model gives for a player for the rest of the season based upon his opportunity in the previous three games.
* Actual = A player’s average PPR points per game over the past three games.
* Difference = The difference between projection and previous week result in full-PPR fantasy points.

Teams on BYE this Week are: the Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans Saints

 

Player Team Projection Actual Difference Main slate DK salary
D.J. Moore CAR 12.7 11.6 -1.2 4800
Mark Andrews BAL 12.5 10.9 -1.6 NA
Courtland Sutton DEN 12.4 12.2 -0.2 5800
Auden Tate CIN 12.3 11.7 -0.6 BYE
Robby Anderson NYJ 11.9 11.3 -0.6 5500
Keenan Allen LAC 11.1 9.2 -1.9 6400
Tyler Boyd CIN 10.9 9 -1.9 BYE
Jamison Crowder NYJ 10.4 9.3 -1.1 5300
REDACTED LAC 10.4 10.3 -0.2 4600
Demaryius Thomas NYJ 10.2 9.6 -0.6 4000
Preston Williams MIA 10.2 9.2 -1.1 4200
Jarvis Landry CLE 10.1 9.1 -1 4500
Sammy Watkins KC 10 9.5 -0.5 4900
Jason Witten DAL 9.2 9 -0.2 NA
Keelan Doss OAK 8.9 8.4 -0.5 3000
Dede Westbrook JAX 8.5 8.2 -0.3 NA
Zach Ertz PHI 8 6.4 -1.6 4700

 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • We have our first REDCATED of the 2019 season. This is his fourth straight week on the model, and if you really want to learn his cursed name just look at last week’s number one buy low and shudder. I will not speak his name in this column for the rest of the season.
  • Mark Andrews is a key component of the Baltimore passing attack, and with Marquis Brown on track to return, and the Patriots likely to be concerned with keeping him in check, Andrews stands to be in line for about as much opportunity as he can handle. I seldom mention defense in this column, but it’s worth noting the very high level at which New England has been playing. While New England lowers his floor, Andrews will in all likelihood be faded by the public Sunday Night, which makes him a solid play on the chance he scores a TD. Add in that the model indicates he has higher than usual upside this week, and he’s appears to be a solid contrarian play.
  • Sammy Watkins isn’t a player I think very highly of, but he is good for two or three explosive games a year. He’s already had one way back in Week 1, and the model indicates another may be in store. Just one week removed from an injury, he’s a risky play because the model is weighting Week 8 pretty heavily, but it might not be a spurious signal. At just $4900 on DK he’s probably worth slamming in a few lineups.
  • Zack Ertz is one of the best TEs in the league and leads the Eagles in share of team air yards over the past four weeks. He’s always a threat in the red zone, yet has just one TD over that four week period. Teams eventually come back and feed their studs as the season wears on, and it seems likely there will be targets waiting for Ertz this week against the Chicago Bears.