Welcome to the second edition of GPP Leverage. This article is going to be a catch-all space for my GPP thoughts. In every article I’ll address some of the relevant GPP plays for that day’s slate, but some of the articles will be more focused on plays and others more focused on strategy. Today is going to be more of a strategy session as yesterday’s slate highlighted some things to consider when playing GPPs in this NBA restart format.
Evaluating Incentives, Leveraging Late Swap, and Dealing with the Unknown
The August 4th slate was one that really highlighted some of the challenges we’ll have to navigate during this restart season.
A brief review of the slate would include:
- The Bucks late scratching Brook Lopez for rest and then playing their key players only a half
- The Mavericks announcing Trey Burke as a starter, only to start J.J. Barea
- The Heat late scratching Jimmy Butler on the second night of a back-to-back, opening up clear values late
I’ll briefly review how I dealt with each of these situations and with the benefit of hindsight evaluate how to get better in the future.
The Brook Lopez news was a signal that the Bucks weren’t taking this game particularly seriously and it should’ve set off red flags on Middleton-Giannis-Bledsoe (was already on a minutes restriction) and any veteran that is a normal part of the rotation (Kyle Korver and George Hill most notably). We had already baked in a lowered playing-time expectation for the Bucks starters but the question was if it would be a lost 4Q rotation (due to blowout or rest) or more. The lowered minutes projection led to very little exposure to Giannis-Middleton in GPPs but I could’ve just as easily x-ed them out and moved on. The slate had studs we were more confident in their playing time in James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Luka Doncic, Damian Lillard, etc – investing anything in Giannis-Middelton was a mistake.