Last updated: September 14th at 10:26pm ET.
Team Totals: Bears 21.5, Broncos 19
Fresh off the single-worst prime-time quarterback performance I’ve witnessed since Josh Freeman with the Vikings in 2015, Mitchell Trubisky’s Bears now trek to Denver, where the Broncos have a 22-1 record in the first two games of a season since 2000. Trubisky deserves the brunt of Chicago’s Opening Day blame; he averaged an abysmal 5.1 yards per attempt, didn’t lead a touchdown drive, and was fortunate Packers defenders dropped at least three picks. No one is keener to Trubisky’s weaknesses than Broncos coach Vic Fangio, who ran Chicago’s defense in each of Trubisky’s first two years. Denver’s D/ST is a sexy bounce-back play after its atrocious Monday night effort in Oakland. … Mike Davis was Chicago’s surprise Week 1 lead back, out-snapping David Montgomery 56% to 36% and ineffectively out-touching him 11 to 7 in a ground game that ran in place. Davis and Montgomery can only be considered dice-roll flex options until one distances himself. … Tarik Cohen ran ahead of Anthony Miller as the Bears’ Week 1 slot receiver, playing 72% of Chicago’s offensive downs and catching eight passes but finishing with a long gain of nine and 49 total yards without a rushing attempt. Further removed from his late-training-camp foot injury, Miller seems likely to play more against the Broncos, putting Cohen’s fantasy utility up in the air at best. I’m viewing him as a low-floor, PPR-specific flex option.
Trubisky’s target distribution: Allen Robinson 13; Cohen 10; Davis 7; Taylor Gabriel 5; Cordarrelle Patterson 3; Adam Shaheen 2. … Robinson was the best player on the field in last week’s NFL opener; he should’ve had 200 yards at halftime considering his superb route separation and Trubisky’s errant throws. Robinson’s 153 Air Yards were sixth most among NFL wideouts on the week. Although A-Rob’s quarterback play is far from ideal, volume trumps efficiency in the game we play, and A-Rob is averaging 9.7 targets over his last six games. Coach Matt Nagy smartly schemed Robinson into the slot on 45% of his Week 1 plays, and Broncos slot CB Bryce Callahan (foot) is out indefinitely. Tyrell Williams diced up this Denver secondary (6/105/1) last Monday night. … Gabriel played 92% of Chicago’s Week 1 snaps. A definitively overused role player, it’s been 13 games since Gabriel topped 61 yards. … Not only did Cohen handle slot duties over Miller, but Javon Wims(29%) out-snapped Miller (22%) as well. Miller won’t be fantasy viable until we see on-field evidence of his usage expanding. … Trey Burton sat out Week 1 with groin issues he’s been battling since January, and his Week 2 availability is again up in the air. Shaheen stood in as the Bears’ main tight end but drew just two targets on 46% of the snaps and lacks streamer viability, even against a Broncos defense Darren Waller(7/70/0) dog walked last week.
Especially after Joe Flacco showed zero pocket awareness, timing with his receivers, and passing-game rhythm in last Monday night’s embarrassing loss to the Raiders, Denver’s offense looks like a full fade against Chicago’s league-best defense in Week 2’s lowest-totaled game. … Although Phillip Lindsay held slight Week 1 edges in touches (15) and snaps (53%) over Royce Freeman (11, 47%), the near-even split promised all offseason by OC Rich Scangarello is real. It’s a fantasy situation to avoid versus the Bears, who stymied Packers backs for an anemic 18/39/0 (2.17 YPC) rushing line on Opening Night. Making matters worse, Denver appears likely to be without prized offseason RT acquisition Ja’Wuan James(knee). … Courtland Sutton (7/120/0) and Emmanuel Sanders (5/86/1) were Denver’s only productive Week 1 pass catchers, and they now draw a Bears secondary that shut down Davante Adams (4/36/0) last week. Sutton looked like the Broncos’ true No. 1 with team highs in targets (8) and Air Yards (95). Sanders didn’t catch a pass until there were two minutesleft in the first half against Oakland, doing most of his damage in garbage time. DaeSean Hamilton chipped in a back-breaking end-zone drop in the second half. … Athletic rookie Noah Fant’s Week 1 usage was promising enough to hold in tight end-premium leagues with TE1 upside down the line. He drew five targets on 81% of the Broncos’ snaps.
Score Prediction: Bears 14, Broncos 13