Dynasty Outlook
April 20
Greg Dulcich is currently our TE3 for rookie drafts, and is the TE18 in our overall dynasty ranks. He is someone to consider at the border of the second and third round in Superflex/TE premium rookie drafts. In more standard formats, he shouldn’t come off the board until the third round. Dulcich comps to some elite fantasy TEs, and excels in making big plays as a receiver. This gives us an upside profile worth betting on. It is important to remember in rookie drafts that TEs can take some time to break out in the NFL, so this investment should be considered long term. Even if Dulcich is successful, it may not happen as a rookie.
Profile Summary
Dulcich put together an impressive career while at UCLA, and is likely to be one of the first TEs off the board in the NFL Draft. He had massive production within the context of the offense, breaking out at the WR threshold as a junior. The scouts note that while he is an accomplished receiver, Dulcich is also a satisfactory blocker. That means his path towards playing time should not be inhibited. Dulcich has an impressive ability to make big plays happen.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/21) — 21.8
Experience — 4 years
Height — 76 inches
Weight — 243 pounds
Hand Size — 9.875 inches
Arm Length — 33.375 inches
Wingspan — 80.75 inches
Forty — 4.7 seconds
Bench — 16 reps
Vertical — 34 inches
Broad — 122 inches
Cone — 7.05 seconds
Shuttle — 4.37 seconds
By the Numbers
Dulcich was a walk-on who became a scholarship player while at UCLA. He had minimal involvement in the offense his first two seasons while playing behind third-round pick Devin Asiasi, then quickly rose to prominence in 2020. Meeting the WR breakout threshold is no small feat, and he did it at 20 years old.
In his final season, Dulcich hit career highs in catches and yards, and expanded the sample size for us to trust his profile. He averaged 17.6 yards per reception for his career, indicating that Dulcich may have some big-play potential from the TE position.
What the Scouts are Saying
Here is what Dane Brugler had to say about Dulcich:
Dulcich is at his best as a “big slot” with his ability to find open zones or attack the seam/crossers with his pull-away acceleration (averaged 17.6 yards per catch in his career). As a blocker, his pass protection has a quick expiration date and he needs to continue developing his play strength and hand technique. Overall, Dulcich needs continued maturation as a blocker, but he is explosive as a pass catcher with a good-sized catch radius and separation burst before and after the catch. He projects best as an “F” tight end in the NFL with mismatch value.
Lance Zierlein notes that Dulcich can be a vertical threat at TE:
Move tight end with some vertical talent who can’t be expected to add much as an in-line blocker. Dulcich is a long-legged, duck-footed runner who is faster than he looks, averaging 17.6 yards per catch for his career. He can improve as a route runner, but might have three-level potential as a pass catcher. He’s urgent and determined, adding extra yardage after the catch. He has a decent catch radius and tracks it well, but lacks desired body control for tougher catch adjustments down the field.
Daniel Jeremiah agrees with Dulcich’s big-play potential:
Dulcich is a twitchy tight end prospect with big-play production. He aligns inline or flexed in the slot. He is quick off the line, and he can really build speed working down the field. He displays nuance and polish at the top of routes to create separation out of the break. He is very effective on seams and crossers, using his speed to pull away. He can track the ball naturally and will attack the ball at the highest point when needed. He does have a few contact drops, but his hands are well above average. After the catch, he can make defenders miss, but primarily relies on his burst. In the run game, he is competitive and competent to seal and wall off. He does need to add some strength in that department. Overall, Dulcich is exactly what teams are looking for at the position and he should emerge as a quality starter.
Draft Projection
Dulcich currently has an expected draft position of 72.6 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. NFL Mock Draft Database, a similar service, has him 76th overall. He went at pick 75 in Brugler’s seven-round mock draft. Dulcich is a likely Round 3 draft selection.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate TE prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable TEs in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
There is a wide range of comps for Dulcich, but it is always good to focus on the upside at TE. To that point, we see two perennial studs in Jordan Reed and Mark Andrews, along with Tyler Eifert, who was excellent when on the field but struggled to stay healthy. This gives us a nice look at the best possible version of what Dulcich could be.
On the other end of the spectrum, we see Jace Sternberger, Kahale Warring, Josh Oliver, and David Thomas. The remaining comps were recent draft picks plus Fred Davis, who had some short-term viability for fantasy gamers.
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