I am mainly a cash-game player. Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
This was a tough slate because there were almost no WRs or TEs under $5K I wanted to play. And no strong D/STs under $3K either. It created a situation where we’d have to take on some thinner spots or go for extreme balance.
MY MUST PLAYS
* With both Michael Thomas and Jared Cook sidelined, Alvin Kamara had a realistic shot at 30% of the Saints targets. Of course he would also handle 10-14 carries in a very good matchup and game environment at Detroit. The absence of both Saints starting CBs Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins increased the chances this would turn into a shootout. Kamara was one of the stronger cash plays we’ve had this season.
* The matchup wasn’t ideal for Ezekiel Elliott, but his increased pass-game role coupled with the return of LT Tyron Smith (neck) in an elite offensive environment made him a must. All the mid-range RBs (Joe Mixon, Kenyan Drake, Darrell Henderson) had too many usage holes I could poke in them.
* I spent most of last week calling Mike Davis “90% CMC.” He’s been plopped into McCaffrey’s role which means a floor of 15% target share from check-down Teddy Bridgewater. Davis’ pass-catching ability obviously isn’t the same as CMC’s, but it’s above average for an NFL RB. Whereas CMC would have been close to $10,000 in this matchup, Davis was $5700.
MY WANT PLAYS
* I only had six WRs in my pool for cash: Brandin Cooks, DJ Moore, Odell Beckham, Kenny Golladay, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. There were certainly ways I could have gotten off Cooks, who doesn’t fit with the rest of the group – all alpha 1A wideouts. The undersized Cooks is fighting with Will Fuller, Randall Cobb, Kenny Stills, David Johnson and two tight ends for targets. And perhaps I should have ignored Cooks’ price and been willing to come off Bucs D/ST for HOU D/ST (see below). With the way DraftKings has been pricing wideouts this season, there is just so much value in the upper $5K through mid-$6K range weekly.
* DJ Moore is not someone I ever play in cash. And I didn’t love having two Panthers. But the setup with Moore’s advanced stats were just too much to ignore at this price. It’s why he was in the Buy Low Model and popping so hard in projections. I’m fine with this play even though the “feel play” version of me would not have been on him. That said, I do think in NFL an over-reliance on math is not a path I want to be on. The sample sizes are so small and a player projecting two points off someone else is not something I should ever be afraid to take on.
* Regular readers know I almost always “punt” at D/ST in cash. The options this week were really weak. The only ones I considered were the $2200 Lions (against the depleted Saints) and the $2500 Texans (against a at-time mistake-prone Kirk Cousins). But given the spot for the Bucs with one of the league’s best pass rushes against a bad and injured Chargers offensive line against rookie Justin Herbert, I thought it was worth spending the extra $900 in this spot. It’s a good reminder about how unpredictable D/ST scoring is relative to other positions.
* It was another week where I didn’t want to play any tight ends. My pool was only three guys: Darren Waller, Logan Thomas and Adam Trautman. I knew I wouldn’t have the money for Waller in this construction, and I knew the spot for LT3 and Dwayne Haskins was brutal. So even though I thought Trautman would top out at a four target ceiling even with Jared Cook out, I was willing to eat that. Making mistakes at $2500 is way better than mistakes at $4500+.
* My final 2v2 was Tyler Lockett and Ryan Fitzpatrick or Odell Beckham and Deshaun Watson. I really grappled with this one as I loved the spot for Odell. I also didn’t love having Watson and Cooks stacked. And I wanted some exposure to the elite game environment in SEA/MIA. So – perhaps due to some recency bias after Lockett’s explosion in Week 3 – I went with the Lockett/Fitz side. And played Odell in my higher stakes, small field GPP lineups.
Note that Fitz was more of an “old school” DraftKings QB play. As they’ve raised the prices of the top QBs into the $7K and even $8K range, the guys in the low $5Ks are viable again. It was different when Russ, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray and Dak were all in the $6Ks – they were simply priced too close to the weaker options.
Week 4 Results
The biggest regret I have is getting locked onto Brandin Cooks. His target share and catch rate are just not in the same class as wideouts a mere $1300-$1500 more. If I had removed Cooks, I could have found a way to punt at D/ST (which I almost always do) or considered other RB options and had a winning week. That said, my process in cash has always been to prioritize the RB position and be willing to take risks at WR. I think that’s still right, but it’s always dynamic to pricing.
This is also a good reminder of something I’ve talked about incessantly over the last few years : A truly great ROI in DFS is somewhere in the 5%-15% range. In other words, for every $100 I put in play I think it’s worth somewhere between $5 and $15. So there are going to be plenty of losing weeks – sometimes we’re the bug and sometimes we’re the windshield.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 172.10 points, won 72.8% of head-to-heads.
Week 2: 138.34 points, won 66.8% of head-to-heads.
Week 3: 129.10 points, won 59.2% of head-to-heads.
Week 4: 111.60 points, won 28.8% of head-to-heads.
