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NFL Draft Props are a unique beast because it’s not settled on the field of play. This is a market which combines a hunt for information with an understanding of team need and player evaluation.
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NFL DRAFT PROPS WE HAVE BET:
1. Ikem Ekwonu to be the No. 1 pick
Line: +350
Date: March 5
Book: FanDuel and DraftKings (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: This was 100-1 about six weeks ago. Then it went to 7-1, and now 3.5-1. Ekwonu’s freakish skill set has him No. 1 in plenty of mocks, including Mel Kiper’s. We will be looking for more information and good prices on others to go No. 1 as the process moves along.
UPDATE: The Jaguars have franchise tagged Cam Robinson. We would not take this bet at anything worse than +700 now.
2. Breece Hall to be the first RB taken
Line: -110
Date: March 8
Book: DraftKings (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: Hall is the prototypical RB the NFL seeks. Big-time NCAA production and he blew up the Combine. We expect this line to quickly get up closer to -180.
3. Over 3.5 QBs selected in Round 1
Line: +182
Date: March 11
Book: FanDuel (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: We know Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett are locks. Based on team needs and tea leaves, we also think there’s a very good chance QBs move up later in process. Candidates include Matt Corral, Desmond Ridder, Sam Howell.
4. Travon Walker to be first Georgia player selected
Line: -175
Date: March 11
Book: DraftKings (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: Walker smashed the Combine and could threaten for top-five status. Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean are entrenched as first-round picks too, but Walker is quickly approaching Tier 1 prospect status. We think this should be closer to -240.
5. Ahmad Gardner under 8.5 draft position
Line: -135
Date: March 12
Book: DraftKings (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: We also considered Gardner to be the first CB off the board, but that was -200. At -135 here, we are betting on talent and big gap to the CB2.
6. Malik Willis to be the No. 2 pick
Line: +600
Date: March 16
Book: DraftKings (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: The Lions are in need of their QB of the future, and trading back will be difficult in this draft. We can see them selecting Willis to sit and learn behind Jared Goff in 2022.
7. Travon Walker to be the No. 2 pick
Line: +1000
Date: March 16
Book: FanDuel (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: If Aidan Hutchinson goes first overall, the Lions could still go with a pass rusher with the second pick. Walker has risen ahead of Oregon edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux after a monster Combine according to most scouts.
8. Kayvon Thibodeaux over 5.5 draft position
Line: -118
Date: March 21
Book: FOXBet (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: Thibodeaux has been one of the draft process’ biggest fallers. We also have a stacked class at edge rusher.
9. Over 5.5 WRs selected in Round 1
Line: +118
Date: March 23
Book: FanDuel (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: The wild trades have left many teams (Chiefs, Packers) with big holes at wide receiver. The class is also strong at the top.
10. Jermaine Johnson under 10.5 draft position
Line: -102
Date: March 28
Book: FanDuel (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: Johnson is screaming up during the process while Thibodeaux is slipping. Note that Daniel Jeremiah had Johnson 7th in his latest mock. We think he could go as high as four.
11. Ahmad Gardner to go No. 4 overall
Line: +1600
Date: March 30
Book: FanDuel (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: We don’t think Gardner is likely to go No. 4 overall, but this price is absurd. He’s clearly one of the top-8 prospects in the draft and there are going to be plenty of trades up top. 16-1 is a great longshot ticket.
12. Derek Stingley Jr. under 12.5 draft position
Line: -105
Date: April 6
Book: DraftKings (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: Stingley is fresh off posting a 4.37 40-yard dash at LSU’s Pro Day
13. Total 1st round safeties drafted over 1.5
Line: -200
Date: April 11
Book: DraftKings (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: Kyle Hamilton, Dax Hill and Lewis Cine all have 1st round potential. This line should be 2.5.
14. Tyler Smith to be drafted in the top 32
Line: +250
Date: April 12
Book: DraftKings (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: Peter Schrager said he does not see Smith falling out of the first round, and he is the favorite to be the fifth tackle off the board. We see this as a coin-flip at worst, making it a great value.
15. Jameson Williams under 16.5 draft position
Line: -115
Date: April 12
Book: DraftKings (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: There are rumblings Jameson could go as high as the top-10 and even be the first WR off the board. With so many WR-needy teams and speed always rising, we feel good about Williams getting selected before pick 17.
16. Desmond Ridder to be the first QB drafted
Line: +3000
Date: April 13
Book: Caesars and FanDuel (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: Ridder has been gaining plenty of steam as a first-round pick throughout the draft process. We think this should be closer to 9/1 in odds with no clear-cut QB1.
17. George Pickens to be drafted in the top 32
Line: +225
Date: April 13
Book: DraftKings (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: Pickens is a favorite of Shrine Bowl director Eric Galko, and Daniel Jeremiah recently quoted someone at Georgia as saying Pickens is better than A.J. Green. Assuming the medicals check out, he has a good chance to be selected in the bottom-half of Round 1.
18. Jameson Williams to go in the top 5
Line: +5000
Date: April 14
Book: DraftKings (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: Speed always rises toward the end of the draft process. Chris Mortensen is reporting Williams is going in the top-10. We think the Jets are a candidate to take him at No. 4. While this isn’t a bet that isn’t likely to hit, the 50-1 odds are far, far too high.
19. Kenny Pickett to be drafted by the Titans
Line: +5000
Date: April 15
Book: DraftKings (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: The Titans can save $18m in cap space by cutting Ryan Tannehill after this season. They should be looking to develop their next QB, and Pickett could slip to them. We think true odds are closer to 20-1 here, but we are getting 50-1.
20. Charles Cross first OL taken
Line: +1400
Date: April 15
Book: FanDuel (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: Yes, Ike Ekwonu and Evan Neal are the clear favorites. But it wouldn’t shock us if the new Giants regime prefers Cross, a pass-blocking specialist.
21. Panthers first pick to be OL
Line: +200
Date: April 19
Book: DraftKings (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: QB is in play for Carolina, but the drumbeat has been growing that they could instead take an offensive lineman.
22. Top 3 Exact Order to be Travon Walker-Aidan Hutchinson-Derek Stingley
Line: +4000
Date: April 23
Book: DraftKings (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: The buzz has been growing on Walker being the first pick in Thursday’s draft, but the biggest late riser may be Stingley, who the Texans have supposedly done a ton of work on. It is unlikely that he makes it to 13, and in a draft as flat as this one, Houston could just take him at three.
23. Jermaine Johnson to go in top 5
Line: +400
Date: April 25
Book: DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesar’s (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: It doesn’t look like any teams have a big desire to trade up. That leaves the Texans, Jets, and Giants all with holes that Johnson can fill.
24. Quay Walker to go in Top 32
Line: +175
Date: April 26
Book: DraftKings (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: Walker’s stock is rising fast ahead of draft day. We’d be surprised if he didn’t go Round 1 and we even think there’s room to double-dip here. We like Walker to be first LB off the board at 14-1 (FanDuel) and Walker under 38.5 draft position -105 (DraftKings).
25. Lewis Cine to be 2nd safety drafted
Line: +300
Date: April 26
Book: DraftKings (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: Kyle Hamilton will almost certainly be the first safety off the board. Getting Cine at 3-1 odds is a great price with no other safeties besides Daxton Hill and Cine garnering first-round consideration (other than Hamilton).
26. Kenny Pickett over 14.5 draft position
Line: -150
Date: April 26
Book: Kambi books (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: We’re not sure any QB will go before pick 14, and we also think teams prefer Malik Willis. Pickett’s tiny hands are a real concern.
