The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.
The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.
The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.
With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 6. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.
Week 6 Bye Week: Chiefs, Dolphins, Rams, and Vikings
DL Rankings – Week 6
- Texans – DL Denico Autry is suspended for the first six games.
- Browns
- Chiefs
- Giants
- Steelers – DE Alex Highsmith remains out with a groin injury. DE Nick Herbig missed practice on Wednesday with a hamstring injury.
- Eagles
- Broncos
- Vikings
- Ravens
- Lions
- Packers – DT Devonte Wyatt missed last week’s game and didn’t practice on Thursday.
- 49ers – DT Javon Hargrave is out for the year with a torn triceps.
- Bills
- Seahawks
- Bucs
- Jets – Haason Reddick has skipped the entire offseason and preseason holding out for a new contract that doesn’t have an estimated end date.
- Saints
- Bengals
- Rams
- Jaguars
- Bears
- Chargers – DE Joey Bosa injured his hip two weeks ago and missed practice on Wednesday.
- Raiders – DE Malcolm Koonce is on season-ending injured reserve. DT Christian Wilkins is on short-term injured reserve with a foot injury and will be without until at least Week 10.
- Colts – DT DeForest Buckner was placed on short-term injured reserve.
- Commanders
- Titans
- Cowboys – DE DeMarcus Lawrence is on short-term injured reserve that will keep him out until at least Week 9. Micah Parsons is likely out for the second consecutive week after suffering an ankle sprain in Week 4. Backup edge rusher Marshawn Kneeland was placed on short-term injured reserve after Week 5.
- Patriots – DT Christian Barmore is out indefinitely with blood clots.
- Falcons
- Dolphins – Bradley Chubb has not played yet this season and remains out this week. DE Jaelan Phillips is out for the year with a knee injury.
- Cardinals
- Panthers – DT Derrick Brown is out for the season with a knee injury.
OL Rankings – Week 6
- Eagles
- Lions
- Colts
- Bucs
- Bills
- Chiefs
- Vikings
- Jets
- Chargers
- Texans
- Packers
- Falcons – C Drew Dalman is on short-term injured reserve that will keep him out until at least Week 8.
- Cowboys
- 49ers
- Ravens
- Commanders
- Giants
- Steelers – RT Troy Fautanu is on short-term injured reserve with a knee injury that will keep him out until at least Week 7.
- Bengals – RT Trent Brown is on season-ending injured reserve with a knee injury.
- Panthers
- Jaguars
- Browns – RG Wyatt Teller is on short-term injured reserve and will be out for at least four weeks with an MCL sprain. C Ethan Pocic missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday.
- Broncos – RT Mike McGlinchey is expected to be out around a month with a sprained MCL.
- Seahawks
- Saints – C Erik McCoy is out for 6-8 weeks with a groin injury and RG Cesar Ruiz is likely out multiple weeks with a knee injury. OG/C Lucas Patrick missed practice Thursday with a chest injury.
- Raiders
- Cardinals – RG Will Hernandez is on short-term injured reserve.
- Bears
- Dolphins
- Titans
- Rams – LT Joe Noteboom, LG Steve Avila, and C Jonah Jackson are on short-term injured reserve.
- Patriots
Biggest Week 6 DL > OL Mismatches
- Texans DL (1st) > Patriots OL (32nd)
- Steelers DL (5th) > Raiders OL (26th)
- Eagles DL (6th) > Browns OL (22nd)
- Packers DL (11th) > Cardinals OL (27th)
- Bucs DL (15th) > Saints OL (25th)
Biggest Week 6 OL > DL Mismatches
- Lions OL (2nd) > Cowboys DL (27th)
- Packers OL (11th) > Cardinals DL (31st)
DL > OL
1. Texans DL > Patriots OL
Key matchups: DT Mario Edwards vs. LG Michael Jordan, Edge rushers Danielle Hunter & Will Anderson Jr. vs OTs Vederian Lowe & Demontrey Jacobs
Notes: The Texans’ DL ranks fourth in pass-rush win rate, ninth in pressure percentage, and sixth in sacks per pass attempt. DEs Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. have a combined 42 pressures. The Patriots’ OL ranks 32nd in pass-block win rate, pressure percentage allowed, and 31st in QB hits given up.
Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye will be making his first career start this week with just two Week 1 starters remaining in the lineup due to injury against a highly disruptive Texans front led by elite edge rusher Danielle Hunter, who will absolutely dominate in this game against both tackles if not double-teamed. With Hunter likely taking up a significant amount of extra attention to give the passing game a chance at functioning, look for Will Anderson Jr., Mario Edwards, and other complementary rushers to have advantageous matchups across the line in one of the biggest mismatches so far this season.
2. Steelers DL > Raiders OL
Key matchups: Edge rusher T.J. Watt vs. RT Delmar Glaze, DTs Cameron Heyward & Keanu Benton vs. OGs Jackson Powers-Johnson & Dylan Parham
Notes: The Steelers’ DL ranks seventh in pass-rush win rate, 14th in pressure percentage, and sixth in QB knockdown percentage. The Raiders’ OL ranks 20th in pass-block win rate, 18th in pressure percentage given up, and 25th in sacks per pass attempt given up.
Despite missing two of their three best edge rushers in Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig, the Steelers’ front still has an elite player in T.J. Watt rushing over rookie third-round right tackle Delmar Glaze with the aging, yet still dominant Cam Heyward set to face rookie second-round left guard Jackson Powers-Johnson. Add in fellow defensive tackle Keanu Benton with mismatches against the rest of the interior blockers, and Pittsburgh is geared up to have too many advantages in one-on-one scenarios not to expect them to generate a consistent amount of pressure this week.
3. Eagles DL > Browns OL
Key matchups: Edge rushers Josh Sweat & Bryce Huff vs. OTs Jedrick Wills & Dawand Jones, DT Jalen Carter vs. C Nick Harris & RG Zak Zinter
Notes: The Eagles’ DL ranks 12th in pass-rush win rate, 20th in QB hurry percentage, and 27th in pressure percentage. DE Josh Sweat and DT Jalen Carter have a combined 31 pressures. The Browns’ OL ranks 14th in pass-block win rate, 31st in pressure percentage given up, and 32nd in QB hits given up. Center Ethan Pocic missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday while Pro Bowl right guard Wyatt Teller is out.
The Browns’ line is banged up and without Pro Bowl right guard Wyatt Teller, while center Ethan Pocic is doubtful and both tackles, Jedrick Wills and Dawand Jones, are underperforming. Add in dreadful pocket presence from QB Deshaun Watson and the issues in pass protection have been magnified, which shouldn’t discontinue this week against an Eagles line with three potent threats in Jalen Carter, Josh Sweat, and Bryce Huff coming off of a bye week at their home stadium. Carter in particular is set to face rookie backup right guard Zak Zinter in an enormous mismatch for the Browns, while both tackles could be in trouble on any sort of true drop-back game against these edge rushers and a QB doing them zero favors when pressure does come (Watson leads the NFL in sacks taken at 26).
4. Packers DL > Cardinals OL
Key matchups: DT Kenny Clark vs. RG Trystan Colon, Edge-rushers Rashan Gary & Preston Smith vs. OTs Paris Johnson & Kelvin Beachum
Notes: The Packers’ DL ranks 30th in pass-rush win rate, 12th in pressure percentage (19th last week), and ninth in QB hurry percentage. The Cardinals’ OL ranks 23rd in pass-block win rate, 19th in QB hurries given up, and 17th in sacks per pass attempt given up.
Green Bay’s defensive line is coming off of their best game of the year in the pass-rush department with 14 pressures, and this week they have multiple backups on the right side of the Cardinals’ line to pinpoint with Kenny Clark against right guard Trystan Colon and Rashan Gary against right tackle Kelvin Beachum. This Packers front is also one of the more well-rounded units in the league in terms of viable threats with players like Karl Brooks, Preston Smith, Kingsley Enagbare, Lukas Van Ness, and Colby Wooden each posing a threat to win isolated reps against middle-of-the-pack level starters, which is the level of player this Cardinals line is full of. The real question comes down to whether or not Green Bay’s run defense can hold up, but with multiple backups in for Arizona, they have an improved shot at having a respectable performance in that area.
5. Bucs DL > Saints OL
Key matchups: DTs Vita Vea & Calijah Kancey vs. Saints interior OL, DE YaYa Diaby vs. OTs Taliese Fuaga & Trevor Penning
Notes: The Bucs’ DL ranks 23rd in pass-rush win rate, 12th in QB knockdown percentage, and 16th in pressure percentage. DT Calijah Kancey is set to make his season debut this week. The Saints’ OL ranks 29th in pass-block win rate, 23rd in pressure percentage given up and, tied for 28th in QB hurries given up.
The Bucs’ pass rush is set to be at full strength for the first time this season with the return of defensive tackle Calijah Kancey to form an underrated power-speed duo on the inside with counterpart Vita Vea that is set to face a Saints interior trio consisting of all backups. Against shaky pass-protecting tackles Taliese Fuaga and Trevor Penning, Tampa’s solid trio at edge in YaYa Diaby, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, and Logan Hall has a good chance of having one of their more favorable matchups of the season, as well. Add in rookie fifth-round QB Spencer Rattler in line to make his first career start this week, and the odds of Tampa’s pass rush generating significant pressure becomes a smart bet to make this weekend.
OL > DL
1. Lions OL (2nd) > Cowboys DL (27th)
The Cowboys’ pass rush is decimated with their top three edge rushers likely out (DeMarcus Lawrence and Marshawn Kneeland are on injured reserve while Micah Parsons didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday after missing Week 5 with an ankle injury), and the Lions’ line will get back All-Pro center Frank Ragnow to put them at full strength this week. With a hobbled Dallas front, poor run defense, and a lack of threats in the pass-rush department, look for the Detroit line to control this game from start to finish.
2. Packers OL (11th) > Cardinals DL (31st)
As long as the Cardinals’ hapless defensive line plays a fringe top-10 or better offensive line, they will have a good chance of being included on the wrong end of the mismatch rankings, and that is the case this week against Green Bay. The Packers are a solid pass-protection unit with a dynamic run game and a QB in Jordan Love who is excellent at mitigating pressure when it does come. Arizona simply lacks the juice and talent to be counted on to generate much pressure in this matchup.
