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Last updated: September 12th at 12:25pm ET


With Week 1 in the books, we now have more information to use in our decision-making process. Some big Week 1 performances do not, necessarily, mean that a player is on the cusp of a breakout season. That’s why one of my goals this week is to try and frame what may or may not be sustainable long-term.  Strategically, I tend to be conservative with my FAAB budget or waiver position until a major opportunity presents itself.  If you’re 0-1 with a tough matchup next week, you might have to be more aggressive.  As always, hit me up on Twitter @ryanreynnj if you’re considering a player I don’t have mentioned or if you’d like me to expand on something specific.


1. Josh Allen
2. Derek Carr
3. Andy Dalton
Keep an eye on: Sam Darnold, Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew.


Note: In leagues where Devin Singletary is still available, he would top this list.
1. Malcolm Brown
2. Gio Bernard
3. Chris Thompson 
4. Alexander Mattison
5. Justin Jackson
6. Raheem Mostert
7. Justice Hill
8. Ronald Jones
9. Carlos Hyde
10. Adrian Peterson
Keep an eye on: Rex Burkhead, Frank Gore, Darren Sproles, Dare Ogunbowale, Mike Davis, C.J. Anderson, Jamaal Williams, Ito Smith, Gus Edwards.


Note: In leagues where Jamison Crowder or John Brown are still available, they would be 1A options on this list.
1. John Ross
2. Mecole Hardman
3. Marquise Brown
4. Terry McLaurin
5. Cole Beasley
6. Deebo Samuel
7. Rashard Higgins
8. Demarcus Robinson
9. Marquise Goodwin
10. AJ Brown
Keep an eye on: Ted Ginn Jr., Danny Amendola, Trey Quinn, Adam Humphries, DJ Chark, Breshad Perriman, KeeSean Johnson, Willie Snead, Myles Boykin, Tre’Quan Smith, Deon Cain, Ryan Switzer, Diontae Johnson, Hunter Renfrow, Paul Richardson, Preston Williams.


Note: In leagues where Darren Waller is still available, he would be at the top of this list. T.J. Hockenson would be next.
1. Jordan Reed
2. Noah Fant
3. Mike Gesicki


1. Chris Boswell
2. Daniel Carlson


1. Texans
2. Chiefs
3. Panthers
4. 49ers
5. Bills


Note: Drop considerations are ordered by position.
Nick Foles, QB
Matthew Stafford, QB
Damien Harris, RB
Chase Edmonds, RB
Ty Montgomery, RB
Nyheim Hines, RB
Kalen Ballage, RB
Tony Pollard, RB (drop as a last resort)
Darwin Thompson, RB (drop as a last resort)
Devin Funchess, WR
Anthony Miller, WR
Rob Gronkowski, TE
Eagles Defense



  1. Josh Allen, QB, Bills, 3% of FAAB Budget: You know what I want to do this fantasy season? Invest in offensive players that are facing the Giants pass defense. Allen isn’t the ideal candidate to shred a vulnerable Giants secondary that is further exposed by one of the league’s worst pass rushes, but Allen’s passing opportunity paired with his rushing upside makes him a very appealing consideration this week.
  2. Derek Carr, QB, Raiders, 1%: If you can’t start Derek Carr at home versus the Chiefs, when can you? During Carr’s last two meetings at home versus the Chiefs, he has averaged 351 yards passing and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions. Even after a solid showing versus Denver on Monday night, it’s difficult to get excited about the Raiders offense.  Despite that, Carr is a real option against the high-powered Chiefs if you need a spot start.
  3. Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals, 0%: Dalton had 418 yards passing in a deceptive, play-action heavy Bengals offensive attack that threw on 78.5% of their offensive snaps on opening day. The Bengals do not enjoy stable pass protection, making Dalton a volatile play every week. Given the Bengals extremely high week 1 pass volume in a neutral game scrip, as well as the 49ers defense’s stylistic similarities with the Seattle defense, Dalton is worth considering if you’re in need at quarterback this week, but pass protection can become an issue any given week with this team.


Keep an eye on

Sam Darnold: The Jets offensive line against the Browns pass rush brings concern this week, but there is also a real path for both teams to exceed their implied totals.

Jacoby Brissett: I’m not looking to pull the trigger on Brissett for this week, but he has three rather appealing matchups from week 3 to 5 that make him worthy of a stash now.

Gardner Minshew: Only a consideration in two QB leagues to this point, but couldn’t have been much better in relief duty last week.



Running Backs

  1. Malcolm Brown, RB, Rams, 8% of FAAB Budget: Last week we mentioned Brown as a form of low-cost insurance for Todd Gurley owners. After the first game, Gurley only out-touched Brown 15-11, with Brown swiping two rushing touchdowns. At worst, Brown is the primary backup behind Gurley to this point.  At best, Brown continues to function in a 60/40ish timeshare while seeing some goal-to-go work heading into the home opener versus the Saints.
  2. Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals, TBD: If Joe Mixon misses time with an ankle sprain, Bernard becomes a must add. If Mixon does not miss time due to injury, Bernard still has value, but he slides down towards the bottom of this list. For Mixon owners, it would be wise to grab Bernard as a form of insurance given the situation.  For everyone else, we may not truly know Mixon’s status until after waivers are processed.
  3. Ty Montgomery, RB, Jets: LeVeon Bell looked good in his Jets debut, while being on the field for all of the Jets offensive snaps.  Now, Bell’s having an MRI due to shoulder concerns, putting his week 2 status in question.  When considering this injury, Bell has only played 14 or more games twice out of the previous five seasons, not including his decision to sit out all of 2018.  All signs point toward Montgomery serving as Bell’s primary backup.  Montgomery has shown that he can be productive during his time in Green Bay, particularly as a pass catcher.  With Bell’s status already in question, consider taking Montgomery as a form of Bell insurance with the potential for an immediate, massive spike in playing time should Bell miss any time.

  4. Chris Thompson, RB, Redskins, 6%: Thompson caught 7 passes for 68 yards in a game the Redskins lead until the third quarter. Thompson has historically been a PPR asset under Jay Gruden when healthy. With Derrius Guice likely to miss time with a knee injury, Thompson is an especially appealing PPR asset in games the Redskins are likely to play from behind.
  5. Alexander Mattison, RB, Vikings, 4%: Kirk Cousins only had 10 passing attempts compared to 38 Viking runs during their opening day victory over the Falcons. With Dalvin Cook firmly entrenched at the head of the Vikings backfield, Mattison still put together 9 carries for 49 yards on only 12-of-53 snaps in the opener. The Vikings won’t continue to establish the run at quite this clip, but Mattison’s role is inline with what we expected to this point.
  6. Justin Jackson, RB, Chargers, 4%: Per PFF, Jackson only saw 16 snaps to Austin Ekeler’s 47 on opening day. However, Jackson did rush for 57 yards on 6 carries while bringing in 1 catch for 4 yards against the Colts. With Melvin Gordon’s holdout expected to last deep into the season, Jackson has a useful role with difference making upside should Ekeler miss time.
  7. Raheem Mostert, RB, 49ers, 4%: With Tevin Coleman likely to miss time with a sprained ankle, Mostert is set to join the talented Matt Breida as part of a timeshare. Mostert saw 20-of-67 offensive snaps while leading the team in rushing with 40 yards on 9 carries in the opener. It’s never a bad decision to grab a share of a Kyle Shanahan backfield.
  8. Justice Hill, RB, Ravens, 4%: I continue to view Hill as a potential difference maker in fantasy, but his usage in week 1 has given me some pause. Hill did not see his 7 carries for 27 yards until very late in a game that was over at halftime, while Gus Edwards carried 17 times in primary reserve duty. That said, Edwards did only out-snap Hill 29 to 22.  I’m still stashing Hill for his upside and plan to continue doing so, even though Hill was third in the pecking order on Sunday.
  9. Ronald Jones, RB, Buccaneers, 4%: Just as expected, the Buccaneers backfield situation is a bit of a mess with a three-way timeshare. While Peyton Barber slightly out snapped Jones 25-22, Jones out touched (14-10) and outproduced Barber in the opener with 75 yards rushing on 13 carries and 1 catch for 18 yards. I can understand why you might want to take a shot on Jones if he’s available.
  10. Carlos Hyde, RB, Texans, 3%: Hyde nearly split touches with Duke Johnson on Monday Night Football. Hyde ran for 83 yards on 10 carries with 1 catch for 2 yards against the Saints. While Hyde is now on his 5th team in 3 seasons, being part of an early timeshare in Deshaun Watson’s offense makes him worthy of a roster spot if you can fit him.
  11. Adrian Peterson, RB, Redskins, 3%: A healthy scratch in week 1, Peterson is now set to fill in for Derrius Guice while the latter is on the mend with a knee injury. Peterson was very game script dependent in Washington last year, seeing very sporadic usage in contests the Redskins fell significantly behind in. Depending on how long Guice is out for, Peterson has appealing matchups in week 4 at the Giants and week 6 at the Dolphins.


Keep an eye on

Rex Burkhead: Lead the Patriots in rushing yards with 44 on 8 carries Sunday Night.

Frank Gore: Gore did not produce, but he did lead the Bills in carries with 11.

Darren Sproles: Sproles tied Miles Sanders with 12 touches to lead Eagles running backs in week 1.  Sproles faces a Falcons D that is historically vulnerable to running back targets in week 2.

Dare Ogunbowale: Lead the Bucs backfield in targets and snap share week 1.

Mike Davis: Out snapped David Montgomery 4027 on opening night.

C.J. Anderson: Anderson had 11 carries compared to Kerryon Johnson’s 18 total touches.

Jamaal Williams: Aaron Jones only out touched Williams 14-7 in the opener.

Ito Smith: Despite being significantly less talented, Smith saw 38 to Devonta Freeman’s 36 snaps in Atlanta’s loss to Minnesota.

Gus Edwards: Logged 17 carries as the primary reserve during the Ravens blowout win.



Wide Receiver

  1. John Ross III, WR, Bengals, 15%: In A.J. Green’s absence, Ross had a monster 7-158-2 opener on aggressive, high-volume usage with a team-high 12 targets and a 23.5% target share. However, Ross’s two long touchdowns came on unordinary plays. The first touchdown of the day for Ross came on a very well-designed flea flicker, where Ross was motioned left behind the formation.  Ross was then lost by the defense on a wheel route that culminated in a 33-yard touchdown.  Ross’s second score came with 16 seconds left in the half, after dropping a wide open cross.  Ross then caught a 55-yard touchdown on a stop-and-go route because the safety, who was in position to intercept the pass, badly mistimed his jump.  For optimists, this is year three for the former 9th overall pick Ross and new head coach Zac Taylor’s offense is a breath of fresh air for the Bengals.  For me, Ross’s usage with Green sidelined is more intriguing than his box score.
  2. Mecole Hardman, WR, Chiefs, 10%: With Tyreek Hill set to miss multiple games with a shoulder injury, Hardman becomes a must add. Hardman saw 53-of-59 snaps against Jacksonville last week, with 22 coming out of the slot. The rookie Hardman only saw one uncaught target in his regular season debut, while being the 5th option in the Chiefs passing attack.  With Hill out, expect the speedster Hardman to be more involved in the offense, starting with a very appealing matchup against the Raiders.  In fact, it would make a lot of sense if Andy Reid went out of his way to get Hardman going in this matchup.
  3. Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, WR, Ravens, 5% of FAAB Budget: I love Hollywood, he’s a DeSean Jackson type of deep threat that went postal against Miami with 4 catches for 147 yards and 2 scores. Despite the monster box score, keep in mind that Hollywood only played 14 offensive snaps on opening day, after missing most of training camp due to offseason Lisfranc surgery. Hollywood has another strong opportunity coming against a Cardinals’ secondary that just surrendered 385 yards passing to the Lions, followed by a week 3 tilt with the Chiefs. However, he may remain on a short pitch count through that two-game stretch.
  4. Terry McLaurin, WR, Redskins, 5%: McLaurin put up 5 catches for 125 yards on 7 targets with a 69-yard touchdown against the Eagles in week 1. With either Case Keenum or former Ohio State teammate Dwayne Haskins under center, McLaurin looks like a potential spike-game asset for Washington. Week 4 at the Giants is the next truly appealing matchup for McLaurin.
  5. Cole Beasley, WR, Bills, 2%: Beasley had 5 catches for 40 yards on 9 targets with a 24.3% target share at the Jets.  Beasley also operated primarily out of the slot.  Beasley remains a solid floor PPR option with an upside week 2 matchup.
  6. Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers, 2%: Two pick-sixes by the 49ers defense lead to an underwhelming showing for the 49ers’ offense, which did not have a wide receiver exceed Samuel’s 3 targets on opening day. Deebo lead the wide receiver group in playing time, seeing 59-of-67 snaps, while lining up outside 50 times. Despite the receiver-by-committee approach, I remain interested in shares of the 49ers’ offense and Deebo especially has long-term appeal.
  7. Marquise Goodwin, WR, 49ers, 1%: Goodwin saw the second-most playing time for 49ers wide receivers in the opener, seeing 49-of-67 snaps with an intriguing 16 from the slot. Even with the 49ers early receiver-by-committee approach, Goodwin remains a lid-lifter that has the most rapport with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo out of the 49ers wide receiver group.
  8. Rashard Higgins, Browns, WR, 1%: Higgins posted 2 catches for 46 yards on 3 targets with a 43.7% snap share during the Browns opening day disaster. The vulnerable Jets secondary is on deck this Sunday for Browns pass catchers, as Baker Mayfield and company look to right the ship after being humbled by the Titans.
  9. Demarcus Robinson, WR, Chiefs, 1%: Robinson’s value is also on the rise after the Tyreek Hill injury, as any potential share of the Chiefs offense comes with upside. Robinson caught 1 pass for no yards on 2 targets in the opener, while seeing 43-of-59 snaps, including 15 out of the slot. In the season finale of 2018, Robinson had an 89-yard touchdown against the Chiefs week 2 opponent, the Raiders.  Robinson has yet to be a consistent producer for Andy Reid, but now is easily his best opportunity to date.
  10. A.J. Brown, WR, Titans, 1%: Brown had 3 catches for 100 yards in the opener. Brown saw 25-of-57 snaps, impressing on an underthrown deep post and a big run after the catch gain. Projecting Titans pass catches looks like a muddy week-to-week endeavor, but Brown has the talent to force an expanded role.


Keep an eye on

 Ted Ginn Jr.: The lid-lifter Ginn caught 7 passes for 101 yards on 7 targets Monday Night.

Danny Amendola: Amendola is coming off a big 7-104-1 showing, but faces an exceptional Chargers pass defense this week.

Trey Quinn: Quinn led Washington receivers in playing time with 62-of-64 snaps, while bringing in a late touchdown.

Adam Humphries: Very disappointing week 1 usage for Humphries, though I like his matchup against the Colts as they tend to allow underneath targets by design.

DJ Chark: Chark was a hit in week 1, though his long-term ceiling is likely reduced with Nick Foles injury.

Breshad Perriman: Perriman had a 12.2 aDot on 5 targets with a 63.7% snap share in week 1.

KeeSean Johnson: Johnson saw 10 targets with an 11.3 aDot in his regular season debut.  Johnson was the primary option on a few aggressive targets.

Willie Snead: Snead played 49 snaps with 35 of them coming out of the slot.  Baltimore has two nice matchups on deck.

Miles Boykin: Boykin only caught one pass for a 5-yard touchdown against Miami, but he does have matchups with upside the next 2 weeks.

Tre’Quan Smith: Smith had mild usage with a touchdown Monday Night, but he played 43 snaps with 23 coming out of the slot.

Deon Cain: With Devin Funchess out, Cain looks to see a rise in opportunity.

Ryan Switzer: Switzer saw 46-of-67 snaps with 6 catches on 6 targets while primarily operating out of the slot.

Diontae Johnson: Johnson saw 24-of-67 snaps with 5 targets in his regular season debut.

Hunter Renfrow: Renfrow had limited week 1 usage, but has an appealing matchup against the Chiefs in week 2.

Paul Richardson: Richardson saw 51-of-64 snaps with a 10.7 aDot in the opener.

Preston Williams: Williams impressed this preseason, while hauling in a week 1 touchdown for the openly tanking Dolphins.



Tight End

  1. Jordan Reed, TE, Redskins, 4% of FAAB Budget: We have to make sure of Reed’s status for week 2, but he may be on your waiver wire after missing week 1 entirely. If Reed is legitimately good to go this week, he has the highest floor/ ceiling combo out of the scraps on most waiver wires at the position.


  1. Noah Fant, TE, Broncos, 1%: Every week for the last several years I have dreaded watching Joe Flacco’s offense. From said harrowing experience, I have noticed that Flacco is very comfortable dinking and dunking to running backs and tight ends when facing higher quality defenses. That’s the situation Denver will be in when they face the Bears next week, and Fant was the only Bronco tight end to see a target (he saw 5) last Monday Night.


  1. Mike Gesicki, TE, Dolphins, 0%: This is not a safe play, but tight end is thin right now for most leagues so you may have to get creative. Miami has historically played well at home against the Patriots in the Bill Belichick and Tom Brady era, but this Miami team is truly bad and will likely lose this week. However, there is some appeal to Ryan Fitzpatrick playing from behind once again for Gesicki, who posted 2 catches for 31 yards on 6 targets with a 67.3% snap share last Sunday.  Instead of trying to determine which Bengal or Cowboy tight end is likely to see more looks in week 2, I’d rather take a shot on Gesicki.



  1. Chris Boswell, K, Steelers, 0% FAAB Budget: Considering that Andy Dalton just lit up the Seahawks pass defense, there’s a strong chance Ben Roethlisberger and company orchestrate multiple scoring drives after the egg Pittsburgh laid in New England on Sunday Night.


  1. Daniel Carson, K, Raiders, 0%: Raiders versus Chiefs has a 53 ½ point total, tied for the highest of week 2. The Raiders implied total of 22 projects them for 4 or 5 scoring drives, setting up nicely for Carson as a streaming option.




  1. Texans Defense vs Jaguars, 1% of FAAB Budget: Houston opened as a 9 ½ point home favorite versus what is presently Gardner Minshew’s Jaguars. Even with the departure of Jadeveon Clowney, J.J. Watt and Mercilus Whitney can provide enough pressure to force the rookie Minshew into making decisions under duress, which is a recipe for turnover opportunities.


  1. Chiefs Defense at Raiders, 1%: The Chiefs are 9-point road favorites against a Raiders offense that will be coming off a short week. With the Chiefs likely playing ahead, the stage is set for Chris Jones and Frank Clark to terrorize a Raiders offensive line that will still be without their two starting guards.


  1. Panthers Defense vs Buccaneers, 1%: The Panthers are 6 ½ point home favorites on Thursday Night Football versus the rival Buccaneers. Given Jameis Winston’s turnover issues, the Panthers have a good opportunity to outperform expectations on a short week, while doubling as a viable play in three of the next four weeks as well.


  1. 49ers Defense at Bengals, 0%: The 49ers D had a big showing against the Buccaneers behind 2 pick-sixes, while totaling 3 sacks and 3 interceptions overall. Despite a strong showing in Seattle, the sometimes-erratic Andy Dalton is playing behind a mediocre offensive line that will face an emerging 49ers’ front in DeForest Buckner, Dee Ford, and Nick Bosa. There is a very realistic path to the 49ers defense providing another multi sack and turnover outing against the Bengals.


  1. Bills Defense at Giants, 0%: The Bills defense is very talented, and the Bills are a somewhat-surprising -2.5 road favorite for the Giants home opener. Expect this contest to be the Saquon Barkley show after his questionable week 1 usage, which would limit the opportunities for sacks and turnovers for the Bills defense. However, there is still potential for Eli Manning to be playing from behind against a talented defense.


Drop Considerations

Nick Foles, QB: Out indefinitely with a broken clavicle.

Matthew Stafford, QB: Stafford was a hit for streamers, but Detroit faces a far superior Chargers defense in week 2.

Damien Harris, RB: Harris was a healthy scratch in week 1.

Chase Edmonds, RB: Only saw 10-of-88 snaps in week 1, remains David Johnson’s handcuff.

Nyheim Hines, RB: I wouldn’t be opposed to holding Hines for another week, but he only saw 17-of-63 snaps in week 1.

Kalen Ballage, RB: I’d rather have Ronald Jones on my fantasy roster to this point.

Tony Pollard, RB: I’d wait another week if possible, but Pollard didn’t do much on 13 carries against a bad Giants defense.  His role is more likely to shrink than expand with Ezekiel Elliot back.

Darwin Thompson, RB: Despite no real week 1 workload, I’m only dropping Thompson as an absolute last resort for the foreseeable future.

Devin Funchess, WR: Placed on IR with a broken collarbone.

Anthony Miller, WR: Miller will see better days, but he only logged a concerning 15-of-71 offensive snaps with a tough Broncos pass defense on deck.

Rob Gronkowski, TE: Even if Gronk does return at some point, what will his usage be with Josh Gordon and Antonio Brown now in the fold?

Eagles Defense: Failed week 1 streamer that visits Atlanta on Sunday Night.


Ryan Reynolds has privately analyzed football for investing and betting purposes for nearly two decades.  Ryan began forecasting by using sports cards as a method of investing in individual baseball and football players, a practice he still takes part in today.  Ryan plays DFS, high-volume best ball, and season-long fantasy while directly betting on props, totals, and point spreads that meet his conditions.  Ryan has watched every snap, of every NFL game since 2014.