Reynolds: Protector of the Year Awards Analysis

The Protector of the Year Award presents a rare opportunity for bettors, as this is a brand-new market with zero direct historical precedence to build a betting process from. Since we’re starting from scratch, let’s build a baseline to work off of before hunting for some edges and discussing some players.

You can find the details of this new award here, but below you’ll find quick hits on criteria and who will decide the winner of the first Protector of the Year Award.

The Criteria:

– Skill Metrics

• Pass/Run-Block Win Rates
• Sacks Allowed
• Penalties Allowed
• Helmet Contact

– Impact

– Leadership

– Durability

– Strength of Opponent

The Panel:

– LT Andrew Whitworth

– LT Orlando Pace

– C Jason Kelce

– C Shaun O’Hara

– G Will Shields

– C/ G LeCharles Bentley

As we’ve been saying for years, when it comes to betting in awards markets, it does not matter who you think will win; what matters is who voters will vote for and why.

Right off the bat, this group of high-caliber former linemen all came up before the heavy rise of data usage in the NFL and will likely all veer more toward “football guy” measures when push comes to shove. What makes that even more interesting is that it’s pretty safe to assume most of these former players won’t be analyzing film every week on every starting lineman in the league, nor should they from a time management standpoint.

So, the first step in reverse engineering the panel’s likely evaluation process is through the lens that performance metrics and/or player reputation will qualify various linemen for the panel. From there, the panel will do deeper dives on those players through film study, asking both teammates and opponents about the impact each of these linemen have, etc.

When this award was first announced, my initial reaction was that the Defensive Player of the Year was the closest match in terms of what kind of player wins this award. To that end:

– Positional Value: i.e., OT = Pass Rusher

– Team Success: Making the playoffs may be a silent requirement.

– The production metrics in the above criteria will matter, as they largely mimic what matters in DPOY races.

– Name Value Matters: You have a much better chance to win DPOY if you had a big year and you’re already a household name.

– The last quarter of the season matters more than any of the three previous quarters.

The panel being filled with former players changes that framework somewhat, as each position group has at least one panel member that played that position.

Rewarding legacy could also play a factor, especially since there are just a few linemen left in the league who played at the same time as some of the older members on this panel, which means the window to vote for one of their own is closing rapidly. The leadership criteria is an obvious way that they could rationalize the impact of a player’s legacy as well.

The Favorites