Value Report: The Open Championship

It may be a bit of a faux-links test, but I’m a massive fan of the Scottish Open, as it has set itself up with one of the more predictable tests of skill that we get on Tour. With it being wide open off the tee, there’s no doubt an advantage to letting it rip, and we saw that with the likes of Johnny Keefer and Michael Thorbjornsen breaking through with top performances of their young careers. And although it’s a wildly different test than The Open Championship this week, we have seen experience in the elements at The Renaissance Club be an important factor, as the leaderboard was chock-full of course horses, and ultimately, Tom Kim made good on his recent run of form. We’ve now seen two players go from borderline irrelevant for almost two years to immediately striking against the world’s best with Kim and Wyndham Clark, and it can be a difficult DFS spot to approach, as ownership often outraces the baseline. Their play, plus the likes of Robert MacIntyre and Matt Fitzpatrick coming in hot while Rory McIlroy fights Scottie Scheffler for the favorite, makes for one incredible final major of 2026.

I’m always open to feedback on the Value Report, but I really enjoyed getting to dip into the DP World Tour guys for one of the more unique events of the season. Many on the list actually projected quite decently too, and because of the lack of knowledge on their profiles, ownership was held very much in check for the slate. Despite not landing any top 10s, the four who did make the cut did decently enough that they could be quite important when 6/6 rates were so low at the Scottish Open. Alejandro del Rey was the best of the bunch and had legs to better the T17 if he hadn’t started so slow. His history at The Renaissance Club speaks for itself, and with his ability to separate via the driver, it’s going to continue to be a spot to attack for him. He sets up well in Puntacana this week, too! The trio of Calum Hill, Oliver Lindell, and Jesper Svensson all finished within a few DraftKings points of each other, and at one point, it looked like at least one of them was going to make a big run at it. Lindell was out in front early, with Hill on his heels, and then Svensson fired low in the middle, but unfortunately, all three pulled up on Sunday. It was better, though, than Angel Ayora and Daniel Hillier, who both showed that their lack of recent form should have been more alarming than I gave it credit for. And the final touch was on Freddy Schott, who takes the cake as the worst pick I’ve ever put up for the Value Report. Dead last by nine shots. I simply must tip my cap and apologize to my guy Stude.

So, it’s on to The Open Championship, and it’s hard to believe we’re putting a bow on the final major championship of the year. It’s far and away the most unique of the four, with the forecast being almost always the talking point of the entire lead-up. What’s odd in this edition, though, is that wind shouldn’t play too much of a factor, as the temperature is taking the forefront, projecting to bake out Royal Birkdale to a crisp over the weekend. Firm and fast means fewer drivers will be hit, so potentially the accuracy factor is slightly less important, but it will put an emphasis more on creativity and likely short game. Playing the ball on the ground is one of links golf’s specialties, and if anyone caught Bob MacIntyre’s driver off the deck on the back nine on Sunday, that type of 100-yard-plus run-out should be a common shot style. But with wind not a real factor, it’s not likely to be as brutal a test as other Open Championships have been, so I’ll be going with a mixed-bag approach on the type of players I’m targeting as low-owned, large-field plays. I’m going to stick with the theme of DP World Tour and include LIV golfers in this one too, as they are likely to carry the least amount of ownership in these spots but come with a wealth of experience in this part of the world. With pricing being as soft as it is, most won’t even dip into this range at all, and it leaves the door open for more sim/game-theory setup of the PGA Tour players in the low $7K range and high $6K range who will have a better projection. Those plays will set up well in smaller-field contests, especially with chalk surely to concentrate around a couple. But it’s time to break it down for Royal Birkdale. Let’s go have another ETR member take down the million-dollar top prizes this week!