Week 14 is a tough slate, with a mid-tier team expected to have massive ownership, while the rest of the notable favorites are not available in most survivor pool entries.
Below, I’ll discuss multiple games, listed from highest projected ownership to least for teams with at least .5% projected ownership. As always, I will check in via the survivor pool channel in Discord to discuss any updates I have on any matchup. If you have any questions, get them into the Discord by midnight ET on Saturday.
Buccaneers vs. Saints
Spread: Buccaneers -8.5
Total: 42.5
Ownership: 61%
In most tournaments, I’m expecting 70-75% of remaining entries that still have the Buccaneers available to use them this week. I could see that number hovering around 90% in pick-two-teams formats.
In Circa, we saw 42.9% of entries ride with the Chargers in the Week 13 slate, so I’d expect that to be the minimum ownership we see with Tampa, a team in a similar spot, on a tougher slate. There’s a good chance the Buccaneers breach 50% ownership in that format.
If you are a game-theory player, you’re looking for ways not to play Tampa.
From a pure football standpoint, the Bucs blew out the Saints 23-3 in Week 8, in New Orleans. Tampa is the better, more motivated team with a vastly more reliable quarterback in Baker Mayfield. If you decide to take Tampa in this spot, that is primarily a bet on Mayfield. Something to keep an eye on in this game is Tampa’s injury situations, as they have a few important players listed as questionable as of this writing. If the Bucs are at full strength, they have a notable roster advantage over the Saints.
Your biggest concern here is that rookie Tyler Shough plays better than he did during New Orleans’ upset win over the Panthers, where the Saints only scored 17 points. Shough has had a few promising moments as a pro, but he’s going to need to do more than he’s done to this point to knock off Tampa. Otherwise, you’re banking on the Bucs either laying an egg or for this to be a wild turnover game like the Rams had in Carolina last week.
I will play Tampa to some degree, while likely being underweight versus the field conceptually. If I had one entry, I’d be looking for a way to not play Tampa for game-theory purposes, but it would depend on which teams I had left.
Best Remaining Matchups: Week 15 vs. ATL (TNF), Week 16 at CAR, Week 17 at MIA, Week 18 vs. CAR
We create the highest-quality NFL content
Our team includes renowned fantasy analysts Evan Silva and Adam Levitan, high-stakes professional DFS players, and specialists who cover niche areas that we believe are important to understand.
We don’t sell lineups or claim to have all of the answers. We do analyze what’s happening in a way that’s digestible and actionable, with a goal of preparing you to make the best decisions possible during the 2025 NFL season.
Read on to learn what’s inside our In-Season NFL subscription.
Full Details! » Already a subscriber? Log In
