NBA Matchups: May 4

PHI @ NYK | MIN @ SAS

Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks

Team Totals: 76ers 102.5, Knicks 109.5

Injury Report: Joel Embiid (P, hip)

76ers projected starters: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Paul George, Kelly Oubre Jr., Joel Embiid

Knicks projected starters: Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns

Offensive Ranks: 76ers 17th (23rd halfcourt), Knicks 4th (7th halfcourt)

Defensive Ranks: 76ers 17th (10th halfcourt), Knicks 10th (14th halfcourt)

Season Series: 2-2

Noteworthy Missed Games: Joel Embiid (2), Kelly Oubre Jr. (2), Paul George (1), Quentin Grimes (1), OG Anunoby (1), Josh Hart (1), Deuce McBride (2)

Nurse quotes: Said Embiid was doing everything he could to stay in the game, said Embiid “was a focal point to play through” and he added some defensive rebounding, said it was great to have some tight games for the experience, said Maxey had some “very timely” buckets late to close the game, said keeping the Celtics in the halfcourt late was helpful, said the Celtics were helping off Edgecombe, said Edgecombe turned up his defense in the second half on White, said he had a thought to just play seven and “we have the whole summer to recover,” said they were really trying to get matched up on defense, said they have played the Knicks a lot “and their starting lineup is incredible,” said “rebounding is a big problem against the Knicks.”

Brown quotes: Said they are going to try to get in transition more against the 76ers, said the 76ers can score in a variety of ways and they have to keep Maxey in check in transition, said OG can guard 1-5 and they will try to mix it up against the 76ers (dropped a hint that he could guard Embiid or Maxey), said Mikal has had an opportunity to guard Maxey while they could go to Hart or Deuce (didn’t say OG).

Team stats and notes:

*The Knicks are coming off an absurd three-game stretch with a +96 over those wins. They had elite halfcourt offense and solid halfcourt defense in that span while also controlling the boards. They were also excellent at keeping the Hawks from running on them as well (they were not great in the first two games of the series with transition frequency). If the Knicks play like that, it’s going to be a short series, but there’s almost no chance of that. Besides that, New York has been one of the best rebounding teams, while the 76ers have really struggled on the boards. Philly doesn’t really rebound much better with Joel Embiid on the court, and they’re actually worse on the O boards. The 76ers had to overcome a rebounding deficiency last series and were the third-worst rebounding team in the first round, while the Knicks were the best (the Hawks had been excellent on boards in the second half, too). Both teams are middle-of-the-pack for transition during the season, but the 76ers have been one of the worst transition defenses in the postseason. Both of these teams tend to give up off-ball shooting, but the 76ers did tighten that up against the Celtics. I’d expect them to be somewhat better there as well. The other big weakness for the 76ers is their paint defense, while the Knicks have been solid in the paint all year. On the macro stuff, the Knicks have so many advantages, but the 76ers are coming in with some major momentum in one of the most shocking 3-1 comebacks ever. It’s the first time a No. 7 seed pulled off a 3-1 comeback (2003 was the first year they started a best-of-seven series).

Player stats and notes:

*Tyrese Maxey put the Celtics away down the stretch, and he’ll be getting an easier matchup here in this round (Derrick White was the primary last round). During the year, Maxey saw a ton of Mikal Bridges (fifth-most matchup minutes of anyone), and the Knicks probably start that way. Maxey smashed in this matchup with a 30/4/5 line (22/3/6 and 36/8/4 with Joel Embiid in). Maxey’s usage took a huge hit to close the series with Embiid getting so much playing time. Maxey didn’t get much transition in the first round at just 4.0 points per game, which could be an issue against a Knicks team that locked that up in the first round. It’s still a decent spot, as the 76ers will likely use Maxey to attack the Knicks in a PNR-heavy plan.

*Joel Embiid did look worn down at the end of Game 7, and two players fell into his lower leg twice down the stretch. He was hobbling around, and we’ll see how he feels in this one. I’d be concerned that Embiid can’t make it through this series healthy. In his two games against the Knicks, Mike Brown didn’t flip the matchups, with Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson as the primary. There’s a chance that the Knicks do go with OG Anunoby on him (Tom Thibodeau has done this) with KAT on Kelly Oubre Jr. In the last two games, the 76ers just leaned on Embiid in the post with an absurd 12.0 post-up touches and a Nikola Jokic-like 55 frontcourt touches per game. As long as he’s healthy, expect a massive amount of Embiid.

*Paul George’s defense has been as good as it’s been in the last decade, and Nick Nurse has played him 40+ minutes in each of the last four close games (42, 40, 43, 41). In the last four games, PG has been assisted on 55% of his makes, playing off the ball. He’s had over five C&S attempts per game and 44% of his shots were no-dribble shots. He only has 4.0 potential assists per game in the last four, so it’ll have to come through scoring for a big fantasy line. I’d expect PG to see a ton of OG Anunoby, who was just absurd in the first round. This is a terrible spot for PG.