Breakout or Fakeout: Week 5

Each week, there are unexpected performances across the NFL that leave fantasy gamers puzzled. In 2023, for example, you may have asked yourself the following:

• Is Puka Nacua’s 14-target performance in Week 1 a fluke, or a sign of things to come? (Answer: He’s legit)
• Should I chase Will Levis after a dazzling 4-TD performance in his debut in Week 8? (Answer: No)
• De’Von Achane had 51 points in Week 3…after being a healthy scratch in Week 1? What the hell do I do with that information? (Answer: Buy Achane in all your leagues!)

The goal of this article is to help you separate the signal from the noise for the most perplexing breakout fantasy performances from the previous week. Each week, I will cover ~3-5 situations in-depth through both a statistical and film-based lens to help you answer pressing questions related to waivers, trades, start-sit decisions, or DFS lineup decisions. Let’s get into it:

Tucker Kraft | Tank Bigsby | Rico Dowdle

In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Tight End is King?

There’s no getting around it: The tight end position has been an abject disaster thus far in fantasy, especially for drafters who selected an “elite TE” early on. Coming off a 2023 season where TE scoring was at its lowest point in nearly a decade, things have somehow gotten worse in 2024. In 2023, there were 11 TEs to eclipse 10 PPR points per game. So far this year, there are only seven. The biggest difference-makers at the TE position in terms of points per game — George Kittle, Dallas Goedert, and Brock Bowers — all were drafted outside of the top six TEs on most best ball and redraft platforms.

Behind these three, Packers TE Tucker Kraft is tied with Jake Ferguson as the current TE4 with 11.2 PPR points per game. In what many were expecting would be the “Dontayvion Wicks game”, Kraft instead broke through with four catches for 88 yards and two TDs, making him the highest-scoring TE in Week 5. Is Kraft making a case to be considered amongst the elites at the position, or are we simply playing a game of tight-end-whack-a-mole by chasing this 22.8 PPR-point performance?

For Kraft, let’s start with his statistical profile through 1.5 seasons in the NFL. Kraft started 2023 as the backup to fellow rookie TE Luke Musgrave but, due to a combination of injury and performance, has emerged as the Packers’ preferred starting TE. Here are his yards-per-route-run (YPRR) and targets-per-route-run (TPRR) numbers across both seasons:

• 2023: 1.1 YPRR, 14% TPRR
• 2024: 1.7 YPRR, 16% TPRR
• Combined: 1.3 YPRR, 15% TPRR

Starting with his TPRR numbers, anything in the 14-16% range for TEs is not typically good enough to be considered an “elite TE”. Kraft’s career 15% TPRR would have ranked 22nd out of 31 TEs who ran at least 300 routes in 2023. The general threshold you look for in an elite TE is >20% TPRR, though it’s possible for hyper-efficient TEs on a per-target basis to get there in the ~18-19% range (e.g., George Kittle).

His career YPRR is similarly mediocre. His 1.34 career YPRR would have ranked 16th out of 31 TEs in 2023. On the positive side, it is encouraging that Kraft has performed fairly well on a yards-per-target basis. For younger players, high per-target efficiency can lead to increases in volume. In other words, while the statistical profile is middling, we are talking about a second-year TE who has barely run 400 career routes, and has only been a full-time player in a handful of games. Thus, we should be open to the idea that Kraft can improve his target-earning ability, and shouldn’t completely bury him for this weakness.

Moving on to the film analysis, a clear positive for Kraft is his versatile athleticism. Kraft is neither the fastest or most elusive TE, nor is he the biggest or strongest, but he is solidly above average in both speed and size. This is backed up by his tested athleticism coming into the NFL, which put him in the ~80th percentile for speed and ~70th percentile for size. This versatility allows Kraft to be a featured part of the offense in both run and pass situations, as he’s both a capable blocker and a threat to make a play in the receiving game.

In terms of what matters for fantasy scoring, this athletic versatility helps Kraft in two key areas: play-action and check-and-release. Let’s start by looking at a designed play-action rep for Kraft: