Last updated: October 10th at 4:31pm ET.
Team Totals: Rams 26.5, 49ers 23.5
Undefeated San Francisco visits L.A. in a battle of offensive masterminds who were ironically both run out of town by the woebegone Redskins and have played to shootout results of 48-32, 39-10, 34-13, and 41-39 since Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan entered the head-coaching ranks. Mainly a game manager under Shanahan, Jimmy Garoppolo’s Weeks 1-5 fantasy results were QB28 > QB6 > QB27 > QB16, while Rams DC Wade Phillips’ defense was clipped by Jameis Winston (QB1) and Russell Wilson (QB3) in its last two games, all told yielding 85 points to Tampa and Seattle. The Rams will miss OLB Clay Matthews (broken jaw) and are down to 29th in QB Hit Rate (10.9%), while Garoppolo has a 6:3 TD-to-INT ratio and 74.4% completion rate when kept clean. Unfortunately, Garoppolo’s floor lowered when 49ers RT Mike McGlinchey (knee) joined LT Joe Staley (broken leg) on the shelf. San Francisco’s starting tackles are now sixth-round rookie LT Justin Skule and college TE Daniel Brunskill, last seen balling in the AAF. Despite the Rams’ lack of sack and hit production, they rank No. 2 in the NFL in pressure rate. Garoppolo is a very tough sell as a Week 6 streamer. … The 49ers came off their bye with Matt Breida handling a backfield-high 35% snap rate but getting out-touched 16 to 14 by Tevin Coleman with Raheem Mostert taking seven touches on a 32% playing-time clip. Early-season short-yardage maven Jeff Wilson was inactive. This remains an RBBC that will lack fantasy reliability, even for as well as Breida and Coleman have performed in Shanahan’s system. Breida and Coleman are dicey if entertaining RB2/flex plays in this spot. Mostert did get most of his Week 5 run in garbage time against the Browns and isn’t playable.
Jimmy G’s target distribution: George Kittle 29; Deebo Samuel 17; Marquise Goodwin 12; Dante Pettis and Kendrick Bourne 9; Breida, Richie James, and Kyle Juszczyk 8; Mostert 6; Coleman 3. … Teams targeting tight ends against L.A. are a perfect 11-of-11 for 160 yards (14.5 YPA) and a touchdown in the last two weeks. This bodes beautifully for Kittle, who busted his scoring slump in last week’s evisceration of Cleveland and obliterated the Rams for stat lines of 9/149/1 > 5/98/1 > 4/100/0 in these teams’ last three meetings. Travis Kelce (vs. HOU) is the only tight end I would play over Kittle on Week 6’s slate. … The Niners narrowed their wideout committee somewhat in last Monday night’s post-bye destruction of the Browns with Bourne and James taking backseats, yet none of their top-three receivers so much as drew five targets, and Pettis painfully dropped an easy second-half touchdown on a poorly-defended slant route. From a fantasy standpoint, it’s Kittle or bust in San Francisco’s receiving unit at this point.
Similar to last season, Jared Goff’s home-away splits are stark with QB9 and QB4 fantasy results in L.A. versus QB29, QB19, and QB11 scores on the road. Since the start of 2018, Goff has averaged 9.2 yards per attempt with a 25:6 TD-to-INT ratio at home compared to 7.4 YPA with a 14:13 TD-to-INT ratio away from Los Angeles. Goff’s biggest Week 6 worry should be San Francisco’s beastly front, which ranks No. 3 in tackle-for-loss rate (29.4%), No. 5 in sack rate (9.2%), and No. 6 in QB Hit Rate (18.3%) while yielding to-date quarterback scores of QB30 (Jameis Winston), QB10 (Andy Dalton), QB24 (Mason Rudolph), and QB32 (Baker Mayfield). Goff is a low-floor QB1. … Even as Todd Gurley escaped with two rushing touchdowns in last Thursday’s loss to Seattle, he fell below 20 touches for the eighth straight game and finished under 100 total yards in the fourth consecutive week this year. He did log a season-high 93% snap rate against the Seahawks. This year’s 49ers have limited enemy backs to 70/267/0 (3.81 YPC) rushing and just 28.0 receiving yards per game. Gurley is best approached as a touchdown-reliant RB2 whose risk is increased by a quad injury that kept Gurley out of early-week practices. Should Gurley miss Sunday’s game, the Rams would turn to Malcolm Brown as their early-down lead back and so-far on-ice rookie Darrell Henderson to change the pace.
Goff’s 2019 target distribution: Cooper Kupp 63; Robert Woods 47; Brandin Cooks 34; Gerald Everett 26; Gurley 22; Tyler Higbee 18; Josh Reynolds 8. … The West Coast’s version of 2018 Adam Thielen, Kupp looks to top 100 yards for the fifth-straight game against a 49ers defense that’s been tormented by slot WRs Tyler Boyd (10/122/0), JuJu Smith-Schuster (3/81/1), Jarvis Landry (4/75/0), and Chris Godwin (3/53/1). Kupp averages 82 career yards per game at home versus 59 on the road. Kupp has also caught over half of his receptions (28/41) and over half of his yards (285/505) versus zone coverage this season; San Francisco plays zone at an 81.1% rate (Sports Info Solutions). … Woods has seen at least seven targets in 15 of his last 17 games, raising his floor even if Woods’ ceiling is lower with a healthy Kupp. Woods’ stat lines against San Francisco since joining the Rams are 2/24/0 > 5/78/0 > 6/108/0. … Cooks’ availability will be determined by concussion protocol. An increasing disappointment, Cooks has cleared 75 yards once in the Rams’ last ten regular season games. … Everett was the Rams’ best skill player in last Thursday night’s loss to Seattle, breaking tackles and stiff-arming haters en route to a career-best 7/136/0 receiving line. Over the past two weeks, only Austin Hooper and Travis Kelce have run more pass routes than Everett among NFL tight ends. Assuming rational coaching, deploying more two-tight end sets would be a means of better protecting pressure-sensitive Goff against the pressure-proficient Niners. Cooks not playing would be another major boon to Everett’s TE1 outlook.
Score Prediction: Rams 24, 49ers 23