Last updated: November 29th at 8:15am ET
Team Totals: Ravens 26, 49ers 20
49ers-Ravens sets up as a thrilling real-life game with fewer fantasy implications totaled fairly low at 46 points and San Francisco drawing the short end. Just 1-of-11 quarterbacks to face Baltimore has logged top-12 fantasy results, while Jimmy Garoppolo has been a top-12 scorer in only 4-of-11 starts. Jimmy G is a low-end two-QB-league play versus the league’s best secondary. … Matt Breida’s (ankle) expected return opens the possibility of San Francisco’s backfield devolving into a three-man timeshare, especially if coach Kyle Shanahan determines Raheem Mostert has earned a legitimate role after sparking the 49ers’ rushing attack with 28 carries for 144 yards and two touchdowns (5.14 YPC) over his last five games. Tevin Coleman has struggled mightily since his four-TD Week 8 explosion against Carolina, managing 2.64 yards per carry and averaging an underwhelming 13.8 touches per game. Neither projected game script nor workload bankability is working in this backfield’s favor. Coleman is still the best flex option, but he’s a risky one with fewer than 75 total yards in six of his last seven games.
George Kittle gutted out the fracture in his ankle to torch Green Bay’s secondary for 6/129/1 receiving on 79% of the 49ers’ Week 12 offensive snaps and should be healthier this week. The Ravens have allowed the NFL’s fourth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends, rendering Kittle a bet-on-talent TE1 play. Kittle has 86-plus yards and/or a touchdown in five of his last six games. … Emmanuel Sanders has been quiet outside of his Week 9 explosion (7/112/1) against Arizona, managing 33 yards or fewer in each of his other four games as a 49er. A debilitating rib injury is largely to blame, and Sanders’ health remains questionable entering Week 13 following another limited week of practice. He’s a high-risk WR3 option in this tough draw. … Deebo Samuel drew only two targets in last week’s blowout win over Green Bay but tied Sanders for the team lead in routes run (20) in a game where Garoppolo needed to complete just 14 passes in San Francisco’s smooth-sailing win. Healthier than Sanders, Samuel remains the 49ers’ best fantasy wideout bet at Baltimore. … After Dante Pettis (knee) got injured in Wednesday’s practice, San Francisco’s three-receiver set will be rounded out by low-upside possession WR Kendrick Bourne.
Lamar Jackson reproved his matchup-proof scoring ability in last Monday night’s five-TD demolition of the Rams and gets another opportunity to reinforce it here. This is a letdown spot for San Francisco after its nationally-televised Sunday night blowout of Green Bay, now traveling cross country to face the NFL’s best team. The Niners’ defense continues to lose critical bodies, most notably glue-guy MLB Kwon Alexander (torn pec) in Week 9, dangerous nickel rusher Ronald Blair (ACL) in Week 10, seven-sack DE Dee Ford (hamstring) in Week 11, and Blair fill-in Damontre Moore (broken arm) in Week 12. San Francisco gave up top-eight fantasy scores to Kyler Murray in Weeks 9 and 11, and Jackson is an upper-case version of Kyler with a superior supporting cast. Per Sports Info Solutions, 62% of Jackson’s designed runs are going to the outside. San Francisco has shown extreme vulnerability on run plays to the edges, coughing up 7.1 yards per carry on perimeter runs. … The 49ers’ run defense doesn’t present a Week 13 matchup to fear after coughing up a 162/752/3 (4.64 YPC) rushing line to enemy backs over its last eight games. Mark Ingram’s box-score production is much more tied to touchdowns than rushing efficiency, anyway, with 12 all-purpose TDs in 11 games and the NFL’s fourth-most carries inside the ten-yard line (12). Ingram continues to be an RB2 with every-week RB1 upside driven purely by end-zone trips. Gus Edwards and Justice Hill still need blowout-driven garbage time to matter in fantasy football.
Jackson’s post-bye target distribution: Marquise Brown 19; Mark Andrews 18; Nick Boyle 13; Willie Snead 11; Ingram 8; Hayden Hurst 6; Seth Roberts and Patrick Ricard 4; Miles Boykin 2. … Brown’s Week 12 usage painted a promising picture as to his health; “Hollywood” ran 24 routes – his most since Week 5 – and played 62% of Baltimore’s offensive snaps, his most since Week 4. The 49ers have shown no vulnerability to wide receivers, but Brown can run by any defensive back and warrants upside WR3 treatment here. … No team has allowed fewer fantasy points to tight ends than San Francisco, rendering Andrews a bet-on-talent play. If the 49ers keep Sunday’s game close, the Ravens will need Brown and Andrews more than usual. … Chasing Ravens ancillary pass catchers has been a losing proposition despite their sporadic popups. It’s Jackson, Ingram, Andrews, Brown, and then a full-on guessing game.
Score Prediction: Ravens 27, 49ers 13