Last updated: October 31st at 5:15pm ET
Team Totals: Eagles 24.5, Bears 19.5
The toilet-circling Bears will stick with Mitchell Trubisky after his latest abominable game; he committed two turnovers, took four sacks, and led one touchdown drive against the Chargers’ struggling defense in last week’s loss. Still yet to bank a single top-12 fantasy score through six 2019 starts, Trubisky is almost impossible to trust outside of two-quarterback leagues, even in favorable draws like this. Trubisky did rip off an 11-yard scramble to help set up K Eddy Pineiro’s final-drive field-goal miss but finished below 12 rushing yards for the seventh straight game. Once among the NFL’s best running quarterbacks, Trubisky hasn’t cleared 25 rushing yards since last November 18, an 11-game span. … Coach Matt Nagy at least showed he understands Trubisky’s assortment of limitations by recommitting to the run versus L.A.; David Montgomery’s 27 carries, 31 touches, 21 pass routes, and 74% playing-time clip all set or equaled season highs. But trampling a Chargers team missing both its starting defensive tackles at home is likely to prove far easier than doing so against run-tough Philly on the road. The Eagles have stymied enemy backs for 157/535/4 (3.41 YPC) rushing, while Montgomery has failed to compensate for low-efficiency run-game efforts with fewer than 15 receiving yards in six straight games. He’s a fringe RB2/flex option in a decidedly unfavorable spot. … Although Sunday’s game theoretically sets up better for receiving specialist Tarik Cohen since Philadelphia has surrendered the NFL’s seventh-most running back catches (46), Cohen’s sustained lack of effectiveness keeps him at the very back end of PPR-specific flex-play discussion. Including the playoffs, Cohen has gone ten straight games without clearing 50 total yards.
Trubisky’s 2019 target distribution: Allen Robinson 50; Cohen 34; Taylor Gabriel 22; Anthony Miller 18; Montgomery and Trey Burton 15; Adam Shaheen and Cordarrelle Patterson 10; Mike Davis 8; Javon Wims 4. … Robinson is the one Bear worth starting confidently in season-long leagues with ample DFS-tournament appeal. A-Rob ethered a similar-looking Eagles secondary (10/143/1) last January, while this year’s version has coughed up seven 100-plus-yard wideout performances through eight games. Even with Trubisky under center, I’d be willing to play Robinson in DFS cash games where reasonably priced. Davante Adams (10/180/0), Stefon Diggs (7/167/3), Terry McLaurin (5/125/1), Julio Jones (5/106/2), Amari Cooper (5/106/0), Calvin Ridley (8/105/1), Marvin Jones (6/101/1), Adam Thielen (6/57/1), and Cole Beasley (3/41/1) have smashed Philly’s backend. … Gabriel has gone 17 straight games without topping 75 yards. … Miller has topped 50 yards in three straight weeks but remains scoreless on the season, suggesting he’s due for positive-TD regression after a seven-score rookie year. Miller last hit pay dirt in December of 2018. … Burton hasn’t scored a touchdown or topped 20 yards in a game this year.
Back home after a much-needed victory at Buffalo, the Eagles host an NFC North cellar-dwelling Bears team that has dropped three straight while allowing 25 points per game in that span. Badly missing ex-DC Vic Fangio and interior disruptor Akiem Hicks (elbow, I.R.), Chicago was ethered by enemy backs for 62/307/6 (4.95 YPC) rushing in its last three games. This is a revenge spot for ex-Bear Jordan Howard, who continues to establish himself as the unlikely focal point of Philadelphia’s offense after logging Week 8 season highs in touches (24), snaps (73%), and routes run (21). Even with obvious touchdown dependency, Howard has emerged as a respectable RB2 play in season-long leagues without enough ceiling for DFS usage. … Even as Miles Sanders totaled 118 yards and a touchdown in last week’s upset of Buffalo – he’s crushing the passing game with six catches of 20-plus yards – Sanders handled fewer than ten touches for the third straight week and remains dependent on big plays to make fantasy noise. With 40-plus receiving yards in four of his last six games, however, Sanders has earned every-week RB3/flex discussion in an Eagles offense struggling for passing-game contributions. The Bears have allowed the NFL’s sixth-most receiving yards per game to enemy backs (52.9). One big threat to Sanders’ usage would be Darren Sproles’ (quad) return from his three-game absence. … Even as Chicago’s 2019 defense has taken a step back downgrading from Fangio to DC Chuck Pagano, not a single opposing signal caller has finished above QB15 versus the Bears to this point. Carson Wentz’s all-around toolbox gives him matchup-proof upside, but he’s a fringe QB1 consideration in a probable low-scoring affair.
Even if DeSean Jackson (abdomen) can only play a limited role against the Bears, his dangerous long-ball presence can provide relief for the rest of Philly’s offense. As for Jackson’s individual fantasy utility, I’d want to see him play at least one near-full game before deploying him as a boom-bust WR3. … This is a revenge game for ex-Bear Alshon Jeffery, whose 2019 box-score results have been heavily touchdown dependent without a single week above 76 yards. Jeffery does lead the Eagles in targets inside the ten-yard line (4) but remains a TD-or-bust WR3 option in an increasingly crowded Philly pass-catcher corps. Jeffery has reached 80 yards just twice in his last 16 games. … Nelson Agholor has topped 50 yards in 1-of-8 games. … Catch-less since Week 4, Mack Hollins will return to the bench as soon as D-Jax is back. … The Eagles went all in on two-tight end 12 personnel during Jackson’s absence, primarily benefiting Dallas Goedert, who’s logged top-ten PPR TE1 production over the last five weeks. Zach Ertz was victimized by reduced usage, passing-down double teams, and even Tre’Davious White’s sporadic shadow coverage last week. In theory, Jackson’s return should help Ertz by freeing up the middle of the field, and hurt Goedert by raising Philly’s three-receiver usage at the expense of two-tight end sets. Either way, this is a transitioning passing game lacking high-confidence fantasy plays against Chicago.
Score Prediction: Eagles 24, Bears 17