Last updated: December 12th at 9:15am ET
Team Totals: Packers 22, Bears 18
Winners in four of their last five with playoff hopes alive, the 7-6 Bears come off a mini-bye following last Thursday night’s triumph over Dallas with Mitchell Trubisky playing red-hot football. A top-ten fantasy QB1 in four of his last five starts, Trubisky is 117-of-176 passing (66.5%) for 1,223 yards (6.95 YPA) and an 11:5 TD-to-INT ratio during that span, adding two rushing scores. Trubisky’s individual matchup sets up as difficult on paper – eight straight quarterbacks to face Green Bay have managed fantasy finishes of QB12 or worse – yet Bears top receivers Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller each catch plus Week 15 spots. Trubisky has also resumed running lately, raising his floor and ceiling as a confident two-quarterback-league start. … Green Bay has been beatable all year on the ground – allowing 4.89 yards per carry and 15 all-purpose TDs in 13 games to enemy running backs – while Chicago’s ground attack has shown signs of life with David Montgomery tallying a crisp 36/161/0 (4.47 YPC) rushing line over the last two weeks. With 15-plus touches in eight straight games, Montgomery is a workload-secure RB2/flex option whose ceiling continues to be capped by Montgomery’s shortage of passing-game usage. He’s topped 20 receiving yards once since Week 1. … Cohen has cleared 60 total yards in 1-of-13 games, doing more to eat into Montgomery’s fantasy stock than establish his own.
Trubisky’s 2019 target distribution: Robinson 100; Cohen 68; Miller 56; Taylor Gabriel 47; Montgomery 27; Javon Wims 17; Cordarrelle Patterson 12; Ben Braunecker 11; Jesper Horsted 6; J.P. Holtz 3. … Identified before the season as Establish The Run’s most-undervalued player, Robinson has more than answered the bell with 60-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 10-of-13 games (77%). Robinson slayed Green Bay’s overrated secondary (7/102/0) in these teams’ Week 1 meeting, while the Packers have coughed up the NFL’s ninth-most 20-plus-yard completions (48) and second-most pass plays of 40-plus yards (14). …. Gabriel (concussions) and Wims (leg) both appear unlikely to face Green Bay, which should raise Miller’s floor. With 50-plus yards and/or a touchdown in four straight games, Miller has gone as Trubisky as gone and emerged as a bankable season-long WR3. He projects to spend most of Sunday’s game in 36-year-old Packers CB Tramon Williams’ slot coverage. … Fourth-round pick Riley Ridley is the next man up in three-receiver sets after he drew one target on 40% of last week’s offensive snaps. Matt Nagy could also opt for increased two-tight end packages featuring Holtz and Horsted to account for Gabriel and Wims’ injuries. Holtz got hot early for 56 yards on three catches in last week’s win over the Cowboys but wound up running just 11 routes on 53% of the Bears’ offensive snaps. Horsted ran 21 routes, drew four targets, and would be the preferred streamer against a Packers defense yielding the NFL’s fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Like Holtz, Horsted (44%) remains a part-time player.
His name bigger than his box-score game at this point, Aaron Rodgers enters Week 15 with fantasy scores above QB15 in just 5-of-13 starts hosting a Bears defense that’s yielded top-12 finishes to only 2-of-13 quarterbacks faced. Even with DT Akiem Hicks (elbow) due back, Chicago is best attacked on the ground missing top ILBs Roquan Smith (pec) and Danny Trevathan (elbow). Aaron Jones is fresh off a monster breakout, and Green Bay’s run game humming in general, ranked No. 4 in rushing DVOA. Rodgers is a fringe QB1 in this suboptimal draw. … Perhaps Jamaal Williams’ late-week knee ailment played a part, but Aaron Jones reemerged as Green Bay’s clear lead back in Week 14’s win over the Skins with 192 yards and a touchdown on 22 touches and a 58% playing-time clip compared to Williams’ innocuous seven touches on 42% of the snaps. Jones’ primary 2019 calling card has been touchdown scoring – he’s hit pay dirt 15 times in 13 games – while Chicago has surrendered 11 rushing TDs over the last nine weeks and the NFL’s 12th-most running back catches (72) over the course of the year. A good bet for 15-plus touches on a Packers team favored by four points at home, Jones is an RB2 play with obvious RB1 upside versus Chicago. Williams is a high-risk flex with shaky health and an uncertain role.
Rodgers’ Weeks 10-14 target distribution: Davante Adams 38; Jones and Williams 14; Allen Lazard 13; Geronimo Allison and Jimmy Graham 11; Marquez Valdes-Scantling 6; Jake Kumerow 2. … The Bears’ overrated cornerbacks got eaten up by WRs Kenny Golladay (4/158/1), Michael Gallup (6/109/0), Amari Cooper (6/83/1), and Marvin Jones (3/40/1) in their last two games, positioning Adams for a bounce-back affair after his talents simply weren’t needed in last week’s Jones-dominated win. Adams is an elite WR1 play whose DFS ownership may not reflect it. … The rest of Green Bay’s pass-catching corps offers minimal fantasy appeal with wide-ranging rotations at receiver and tight end. The Packers are splitting snaps between four tight ends – Graham, Marcedes Lewis, Robert Tonyan, and Jace Sternberger – while five wideouts are sharing playing time, and neither Lazard nor Allison has stepped forward as a bankable No. 2 behind Adams. Lazard has finished below 50 yards in six of Green Bay’s last seven games.
Score Prediction: Packers 21, Bears 20