Last updated: November 26th at 8:30am ET
Team Totals: Cowboys 26, Bills 19
Especially as full-touchdown underdogs at JerryWorld, the 8-3 Bills should approach Thanksgiving with a chip on their shoulder and Josh Allen at the forefront with high-floor fantasy results of QB16 or better in 10-of-11 starts and top-ten finishes in each of his last three. Despite Buffalo’s low team total, Allen’s passing and rushing aggressiveness make him one of Turkey Day’s safest and highest-upside DFS quarterback options. … Devin Singletary maintained Buffalo’s No. 1 tailback job in last week’s win over Denver, parlaying 22 touches into 114 yards and out-snapping Frank Gore 70% to 30%. Singletary has run 71 routes to Gore’s 20 over the past three weeks, while Dallas has allowed the NFL’s fourth-most catches per game to running backs (6.2). Averaging 18 touches per game over the last month, Singletary is a rock-solid RB2 in season-long leagues and should soon experience positive-touchdown regression without an end-zone trip in three straight weeks. Singletary hit pay dirt three times in his four games previous to that. … Gore obviously lacks sexy factor but is playable on Thanksgiving-only slates based entirely on projected usage and touchdown chances. Gore has double-digit touches in three of Buffalo’s last four games and ten carries inside the five-yard line compared to Singletary’s two on the season.
Allen’s 2019 target distribution: John Brown 84; Cole Beasley 69; Dawson Knox 35; Singletary 25; Isaiah McKenzie 24; Gore 11; Duke Williams, Tyler Kroft, and Robert Foster 7; Andre Roberts 5. … Averaging 8.1 targets and ranked No. 3 in the NFL in Air Yards (1,266), Brown is a bet-on-talent and fade-matchup Thanksgiving play. Just four individual receivers have cleared 75 yards against Dallas’ stingy zone this year, yet Brown has the speed to outrun any NFL defensive back, evidenced on last week’s 34-yard touchdown against Denver’s Chris Harris. … This is a revenge spot for ex-Cowboy Beasley, who logged 70-plus yards and/or a touchdown in five of Buffalo’s last six games. Each of Dallas’ last two opponents were led in receiving by slot WRs (Julian Edelman, 8/93/0; Danny Amendola, 4/47/0). Beasley runs 74% of his routes inside. … Knox warrants serious Thanksgiving-only DFS-tournament discussion after playing a season-high 78% of last week’s offensive snaps and now facing a Dallas defense that’s surrendered the NFL’s ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Knox’s drawback is his spotty passing-game usage with target totals of 2 > 6 > 3 > 2 in the last month. … This is how Bills Week 12 routes run were distributed: Brown 29; Beasley 27; McKenzie 25; Singletary 20; Knox 18; Kroft 6; Foster 5; Gore 3; Roberts 2. … This week’s top Bills sleeper is gadget-guy McKenzie, who’s run 26 or more routes in three straight games and clearly established himself as Buffalo’s No. 3 wideout alongside Brown and Beasley. McKenzie remains a leap-of-faith play, of course, without a game over 31 yards from scrimmage since Week 5.
Dak Prescott follows up his abysmal Week 12 game at Foxboro with another tough draw versus a Bills defense that sells out to stop the pass by literally never stacking the box with eight defenders. 10-of-11 quarterbacks to face Buffalo have fantasy scores of QB13 or worse, while Sean McDermott’s defense can make Dak uncomfortable by dropping so many players into coverage while still ranking No. 7 in sack rate (8.1%) and No. 11 in QB Hit Rate (16.5%). The good news is Prescott has destroyed in home games with 2019 fantasy scores of QB8 > QB5 > QB7 > QB2 > QB5 at JerryWorld. The bad news is McDermott’s fundamentally-sound zone can put Dak in a bind, rendering him a boom-bust fringe QB1. Dallas’ team total is 26, yet Buffalo has permitted over 21 points just once all season. … Ezekiel Elliott hasn’t looked his usual short-area bursty self this season, but the Cowboys haven’t scaled back his usage. Zeke has 22-plus touches in five of his last six games with a low of 18, while Buffalo has generously coughed up 4.62 yards per carry and 130.5 total yards per game to enemy backs. As a home-favorite bellcow, Elliott should shred the Bills’ light fronts. He’s Thanksgiving’s No. 2 running back play behind Alvin Kamara. … Tony Pollard is a Thanksgiving-only DFS-tournament sleeper with 4.42 speed and 13 touches over Dallas’ last two games. Pollard has quietly out-targeted Zeke 8 to 7 during that admittedly small-sample span.
Dak’s post-bye target distribution: Michael Gallup 35; Amari Cooper 31; Randall Cobb 30; Jason Witten 25; Pollard and Blake Jarwin 11; Zeke 10. … With Tre’Davious White likely to chase Amari, Gallup should catch the top matchup in Dallas’ pass-catcher corps. Bills No. 2 CB Levi Wallace – he of 4.63 “speed” – has coughed up 47 catches on 68 targets (69%) for 495 yards, and four touchdowns. Gallup has 55-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 7-of-9 appearances this season. … The bad Week 12 news was Stephon Gilmore erased Cooper, who finished catch-less on two targets. The good news was Cooper’s health looked intact with an 81% snap rate and 35 routes run, Amari’s fourth most this year. Unfortunately, this is another brutal matchup for Cooper; White has yielded 445 yards on 65 targets (6.8 YPA) and hasn’t given up a touchdown since last Week 14. Cooper is once again best approached as a boom-bust WR2. … On fire with seven-plus targets in four straight games and 85-plus yards in three straight, a healthy Cobb has stood up as a difference maker in Dallas’ passing attack. Cobb should find soft spots in McDermott’s zone as an underrated WR3/flex option in PPR leagues. … Not a single tight end has cleared 50 yards against the Bills this year. Jarwin is Dallas’ most explosive tight end and quietly has 35 yards and/or a touchdown in four of the last five weeks but hasn’t run more than 15 routes in a game all season. Witten is a touchdown-or-bust option who hasn’t scored since Week 2 and hasn’t cleared 60 yards all year.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 24, Bills 23