Last updated: December 3rd at 8:48pm ET.
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Team Totals: Cowboys 23, Bears 20
In a meeting of teams that each played on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys visit Soldier Field as short road favorites facing a leaky Bears defensive front that will be without DT Akiem Hicks (elbow, I.R.) and ILB Danny Trevathan (elbow) for at least one more week and has coughed up 100-plus rushing yards in 6-of-8 games plus nine rushing TDs since Hicks went down. On the year, Chicago has yielded the NFL’s fifth-most running back catches (74). Especially since Dallas’ passing offense has sputtered on the road, this best sets up as a ride-Ezekiel Elliott game based on matchup. Zeke is an elite RB1 play with 18-plus touches in seven straight games. … Whereas Dak Prescott has tallied top-eight QB1 weeks in 6-of-6 home games, he’s logged too-12 outcomes in just 3-of-6 road starts with yards per attempt that fall from 9.2 to 7.8 at JerryWorld versus away. Just 1-of-12 quarterbacks to face Chicago has tallied top-12 fantasy results, while DC Chuck Pagano’s defense has surrendered the NFL’s eighth-fewest QB rushing yards per game (10.8). In what sets up as a low-scoring Thursday night affair in suboptimal weather, Prescott is a lowered-expectations fringe QB1 and not quite the every-week starter he’s been all year.
Dak’s post-bye target distribution: Amari Cooper 42; Michael Gallup 41; Randall Cobb and Jason Witten 33; Zeke 20; Blake Jarwin 14; Tony Pollard 12. … Cooper looks fully past his midseason leg issues after logging Weeks 12-13 snap rates of 81% and 83% and running a season-high 51 routes on Thanksgiving. Amari’s road-game ups and downs correlate with Dak’s – Cooper is averaging 126.3 yards at JerryWorld versus 35.5 away – yet a near-full-strength-Amari is unfailingly a locked-in WR1. Overrated Bears outside CBs Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara have combined to allow completions on 89-of-133 targets (67%) for 1,181 yards (8.9 YPA) and six touchdowns, and Amukamara (hamstring) is in danger of sitting out on Thursday night. Kenny Golladay (4/158/1) and Marvin Jones (3/40/1) both gave Chicago fits in David Blough’s first NFL start. It can’t hurt that Cooper popped as Week 14’s No. 6 buy-low player in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Model. … Gallup’s last five stat lines in games where Cooper played at least 60% of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps are 3/63/0 > 4/55/0 > 4/76/1 > 2/33/0 > 3/34/0, placing Gallup in fringe WR3 territory in a game where we may not experience peak Prescott. … Cobb’s stats in those same games are 3/53/0 > 4/86/0 > 6/106/1 > 6/35/0 > 2/29/0. This is a rare week where I’d side with Cobb over Gallup on one-game DFS slates. … Witten is never sexy, but he’s logged 70% or more of Dallas’ snaps in nine straight games, and Chicago has yielded the NFL’s third-most catches (70) and seventh-most yards to tight ends (679). He’s a touchdown-or-bust streamer worthy of strong single-game DFS consideration.
Despite his continued refusal to run, Mitchell Trubisky has earned confident two-quarterback-league starter treatment with top-ten QB1 scores in three of his last four starts facing a Cowboys defense that allowed top-12 weeks to five of its last eight opposing signal callers and 26-plus real-life points in three of its last four. Trubisky’s Thursday night floor remains low; his recent success has come against Detroit (twice) and the Giants’ lifeless pass rush, while Dallas ranks a livelier No. 14 in sack rate (7.3%) and No. 8 in QB Hit Rate (17.5%). Trubisky’s passer rating dives from 93.3 in clean pockets to 60.1 under duress. An ugly Trubisky performance should surprise no one here. … David Montgomery enters Week 14 with 15-plus touches in six straight games and enticing touchdown equity with the NFL’s second-most carries inside the five-yard line (13). Montgomery’s NCAA-best tackle-breaking metrics have yet to translate to the pros – he’s 52nd among 59 qualified backs in yards after contact per rush (2.2) – but Montgomery’s secure usage keeps him in touchdown-reliant RB2/flex play versus Dallas. … Tarik Cohen has played over 50% of Chicago’s offensive snaps in four straight games, while the Cowboys’ zone defense has yielded the league’s sixth-most catches (72) and eighth-most receiving yards (579) to running backs. Cohen is a low-floor, PPR-specific flex option with much lower touchdown probability than Montgomery.
Trubisky’s 2019 target distribution: Allen Robinson 92; Cohen 62; Anthony Miller 52; Taylor Gabriel 47; Montgomery 26; Javon Wims 14; Ben Braunecker, Adam Shaheen, and Cordarrelle Patterson 11; Jesper Horsted 2. … Robinson has 60-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 9-of-12 games and has secured 35 of his 71 catches in the slot, where Robinson can avoid top corners. He’s No. 9 among 48 qualified receivers in yards per slot route run. As usual, Robinson is an easy WR2 play at home against Dallas. … Cowboys opponents have been led in receiving by slot men in three straight games (Julian Edelman, 8/93/0; Danny Amendola, 4/47/0; Cole Beasley, 6/110/1), while Bears slot man Miller is on fire with 33 targets over his last three games. Still a positive-TD-regression candidate without a single end-zone trip all year, Miller is an upside WR3 with matchup and usage working in his favor. … Gabriel (concussion) appears likely to miss another game, giving Wims his third start of the season. Wims’ snap rates in such opportunities are 94% > 93% > 91% with box-score results of 4/56/0 > 0/0 > 5/56/0. He’s best treated as a one-game DFS option versus Dallas and a WR4/flex in deeper season-long leagues. Just five individual wide receivers have cleared 75 yards against Dallas’ stingy zone this year. Wims is the Bears’ No. 4 pass option at best behind Robinson, Cohen, and Miller. … Horsted beautifully fingertipped an 18-yard TD on Thanksgiving, but it was his lone target of the game, and Horsted played only six snaps against the Lions. Full-time blockers J.P. Holtz and converted tackle Bradley Sowell are the Bears’ other healthy tight ends.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 21, Bears 20