Last updated: November 14th at 5:45pm ET
Team Totals: N/A
The Cowboys visit Detroit coming off a nail-biting 28-24 Sunday night loss to Minnesota caused largely by Dallas’ play-calling stubbornness. Facing a Mike Zimmer defense that sold out to erase Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas averaged a pathetic 2.4 yards per carry on 16 first-down runs compared to 8.3 YPA on 14 first-down passes. Clearly usurping Zeke as the strength of OC Kellen Moore’s offense, Dak Prescott’s hot streak should nevertheless continue inside Ford Field’s dome. The Lions have served up top-12 fantasy scores to 8-of-9 quarterbacks faced, while Dak has finished QB13 or better in 8-of-9 starts with seven top-eight results. Prescott is a locked-in season-long starter with ample DFS appeal in Amari Cooper stacks. Per Sports Info Solutions, Cooper has scored five of his seven touchdowns against man coverage this season, while his share of Dallas’ passing-game targets spikes from 20% versus zone to 31% versus man. The Lions play man coverage at the NFL’s second-highest rate. … Week 10’s run struggles won’t turn Dallas away from Zeke, who faces a Lions defense enemy backs have gutted for 220/977/9 (4.44 YPC) rushing, the NFL’s third-most receiving yards (535), and 14 TDs in nine games. While it’s likely true that Elliott lacks his yesteryear burst and acceleration following 2019’s holdout, it’s also true that opportunity matters more at running back than talent in fantasy, and Elliott won’t stop getting fed.
Dak’s post-bye target distribution: Amari Cooper 21; Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb 16; Jason Witten 14; Blake Jarwin 5; Elliott and Tony Pollard 3. … Cooper is a shoo-in WR1 against a Detroit secondary surrendering the NFL’s tenth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Obviously playing hurt, Lions top CB Darius Slay has been burned for 249 yards on 28 targets (8.9 YPA) this season and isn’t a cornerback to fear. Cooper is a top-three WR1 across formats. … Stefon Diggs (7/142/0), Larry Fitzgerald (8/113/1), Keenan Allen (8/98/0), Allen Robinson (6/86/0), Golden Tate (8/85/0), Mike Williams (3/83/0), Allen Lazard (4/65/1), Mack Hollins (4/62/0), Hunter Renfrow (6/54/1), Nelson Agholor (8/50/2), Darius Slayton (2/50/2), Bisi Johnson (4/40/1), and Taylor Gabriel (4/39/1) have exposed the weaknesses in Detroit’s secondary, many as non-No. 1 receivers much like Gallup. Averaging eight targets per game with end-zone trips in consecutive weeks, Gallup has earned WR2/3 treatment in plus draws such as this. … Cobb cleared 70 yards for the first time in 16 games during last week’s loss to Minnesota, looking as healthy as ever en route to a 6/106/1 receiving line on multiple highlight-reel catches. That game earned Cobb fringe WR3/flex discussion against the Lions, who have conceded 71 completions on 107 slot targets (66.4%) for 823 yards (7.7 YPA) and ten touchdowns. … Witten and Jarwin’s tendency to cancel each other out puts Witten on the streaming backburner regardless of Dallas’ opponents. Witten is scoreless since Week 2, while the Lions rank 18th in receptions allowed to tight ends (39).
The Lions appear likely to start Jeff Driskel again with Matthew Stafford (back) still on the mend after Driskel acquitted himself reasonably well in last week’s 20-13 loss at Soldier Field. Driskel used his 4.56 speed for 37 yards on five scrambles, hit Kenny Golladay deep down the sideline for a 47-yard score, and earned a Week 11 two-quarterback-league start after finishing as Week 10’s fantasy QB11. Three of the last four signal callers to face Dallas logged top-12 results. … Assuming Ty Johnson (concussion) can’t get cleared by Sunday, the Lions’ backfield would be reduced to J.D. McKissic and Paul Perkins after McKissic handled season highs in snaps (70%), touches (16), and targets (7) following Johnson’s Week 10 early exit. A longtime favorite of OC Darrell Bevell after the two spent time together in Seattle, McKissic is a spitting image of ex-Lions RB Theo Riddick as an inefficient between-the-tackles runner who shines in the passing game and – also like Riddick – has experience at wide receiver. The Cowboys happen to have allowed the NFL’s fourth-most catches to running backs, positioning McKissic to be an underrated RB2 if Johnson can’t make it back with PPR-specific flex viability regardless of his teammate’s status.
Driskel’s Week 10 target distribution: Golladay 9; Danny Amendola 8; McKissic 7; Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson 6; Logan Thomas 2; Johnson, Perkins, and Jesse James 1. … Golladay enters Week 11 with 100-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 7-of-10 games to face a Cowboys secondary with plus-sized corners in Byron Jones and Chidobe Awuzie well equipped to deal with Golladay’s physical strengths. Only the Patriots have allowed fewer fantasy points to wide receivers than Dallas, which took care of fellow top perimeter WRs Stefon Diggs (3/49/0), Alshon Jeffery (2/38/0), and Darius Slayton (1/6/0) over its last three games. With Driskel quarterbacking, Golladay is a fade-matchup WR2 gamble whose floor is lower than usual this week. … Scoreless since Week 1, Amendola has finished below 40 yards in 5-of-8 appearances. He is especially affected by Driskel’s accuracy downgrade from Stafford. … Jones’ Week 10 box-score result (5/77/0) was refreshingly useful against an overrated Bears secondary. Like Golladay, Jones’ Week 11 floor is lower in a tougher draw versus Dallas. He’s a fringe WR3/flex option. Just three individual receivers have cleared 75 yards against the Cowboys’ zone defense this season. … Hockenson’s fantasy trust factor is low with Driskel at quarterback and little production since Week 1, but he’s drawn 13 targets over the last two weeks and has the best Week 11 on-paper matchup in Detroit’s pass-catcher corps. When targeting tight ends, Cowboys opponents are 54-of-73 passing (74%) for 531 yards (7.3 YPA) and five touchdowns. Hockenson is an unsafe, matchup-based TE1 streamer.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 30, Lions 20