Last updated: October 23rd at 7:09pm ET.
Team Totals: Bills 22.5, Eagles 20.5
Carson Wentz’s string of brutal pass-defense opponents continues at Buffalo, which finally sprung leaks in last Sunday’s ten-point win over Miami wherein Ryan Fitzpatrick rallied the Dolphins to a temporary second-half lead and Week 7’s QB7 result with a rushing and passing score and 8.1 yards per attempt. Fitzpatrick became the first quarterback to log a fantasy outcome above QB17 against the Bills this year. Even while Wentz has banked top-12 finishes in 5-of-7 starts, his ceiling and floor are suspect based on Sunday’s unideal matchup and Philly’s low-score projection at Buffalo. Once again, I would be open to streaming waiver pickups over Wentz in season-long leagues. Sean McDermott’s Bills are on pace to allow a bottom-four passer rating for the second straight year. … Jordan Howard has handled exactly 13 touches in three straight games, besting Miles Sanders as the Eagles’ main runner but hardly making Sanders go away. Week 7’s box score doesn’t reveal it, but Sanders logged season highs in playing time (53%) and routes run (21) against the Cowboys, while Howard has gained six combined receiving yards over the Eagles’ last three games. This backfield has become a fantasy situation to avoid, especially in games where Philly is unlikely to score many points. Howard and Sanders are TD-or-bust flex options.
Wentz’s Weeks 2-7 target distribution: Zach Ertz 52; Nelson Agholor 38; Alshon Jeffery 34; Mack Hollins 21; Sanders and Dallas Goedert 19; Howard 8; J.J. Arcega-Whiteside 7; Darren Sproles 5. … Buffalo has allowed the NFL’s second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends, while Goedert’s spiked usage in Philly’s 12-personnel sets throw wrenches into Ertz’s Week 8 outlook. Ertz’s 57.7 yards-per-game average would be his lowest since 2015. … Agholor has topped 50 yards in 1-of-7 games. … Jeffery has reached 80 yards twice in his last 15 games and remains a touchdown-or-bust WR3. Buffalo has permitted the NFL’s third-fewest completions of 20-plus yards (14) and second-fewest touchdown catches (2) to wideouts this year. … Running wind sprints in place of DeSean Jackson (abdomen), Hollins hasn’t caught a pass since Week 4. … Goedert paid Week 7 dividends at Dallas but remains a touchdown-or-bust TE1 streamer with four targets or fewer in 6-of-7 games. No tight end to face Buffalo has cleared 50 yards this season.
Josh Allen is again positioned for an eruption game at home versus the Eagles, who’ve allowed top-eight fantasy finishes to 5-of-7 quarterbacks faced and the NFL’s sixth-most touchdown passes (14) as one of the league’s most run-funnel defenses under DC Jim Schwartz. Over his last 11 full games, Allen has registered eight top-12 fantasy results and seven top-eight finishes. He’s among Week 8’s highest-floor and ceiling plays at the quarterback position and once again an encouraged DFS-tournament pairing with John Brown. … Frank Gore kept Week 7 lead-back duties in Devin Singletary’s (hamstring) return, out-touching Buffalo’s rookie 12 to 7 and out-snapping Singletary 55% to 38% in a game where the Bills ran a season-low 51 offensive plays, damaging every Buffalo skill-position player’s box-score results beyond Allen and John Brown. Week 7 served as an important reminder of OC Brian Daboll’s unrelenting trust in Gore and Singletary’s 1B role in the Bills’ backfield in spite of Singletary’s superior big-play potential. In Week 8, Gore shapes up as a touchdown-reliant flex option against an Eagles defense that has held enemy backs to 145/482/4 (3.32 YPC) rushing. Singletary is a boom-bust flex play.
Allen’s 2019 target distribution: Cole Beasley 41; John Brown 40; Dawson Knox 21; T.J. Yeldon 9; Gore, Isaiah McKenzie, and Tommy Sweeney 8; Singletary 6; Duke Williams 5; Robert Foster 3. … Beasley has locked himself in as one of Allen’s top-two pass options, earning WR3/flex treatment in plus draws with 40-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 5-of-6 games. Beasley’s ceiling always feels limited – he has two 100-plus-yard games in his 109-game career – but his passing-game role has never been this bankable, and Beasley should serve as a Week 8 extension of Buffalo’s running game on short passes that move the chains. … The Eagles don’t have a single defensive back capable of containing Brown, who’s shown a high floor with 50-plus yards in 6-of-6 games and offers an immense Week 8 ceiling against a Philly secondary that’s already allowed seven different wideouts to clear 100 yards. No. 14 in the NFL in Air Yards market share (35%), Brown is a Week 8 common-sense play based on opportunity and matchup. … Tyler Koft’s (foot) Week 7 return morphed Buffalo’s tight end situation into a fantasy-unfriendly timeshare; Knox led the unit in playing time (53%) but drew only two targets, while Kroft was in on 44% of the Bills’ offensive snaps and blocker Lee Smith’s playing-time clip was 42%. The Bills’ heavy usage of multiple tight end sets also renders Williams, McKenzie, and Robert Foster uninspiring fantasy punts.
Score Prediction: Bills 24, Eagles 23