Last updated: November 7th at 6:15pm ET
Team Totals: Giants 23.5, Jets 20.5
The Jets’ D/ST is among Week 10’s top streamers against the direly shorthanded Giants, who play on a short week following Monday night’s loss to Dallas without Evan Engram (foot) and Sterling Shepard (concussion), who’ve collectively accounted for nearly a third of Daniel Jones’ 2019 completions. Jones’ ball-security woes have persisted with a Jameis Winstonian 15 turnovers in seven starts, and he’s been sacked 16 times over New York’s last three games. Jones himself is just a two-QB-league play due to his weapons deficit and the Jets’ middling allowance of the NFL’s 15th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. … Even as Gang Green has played lights out run defense to date – DC Gregg Williams’ unit has held enemy backs to 3.21 yards per carry – injuries to NT Steve McLendon (neck), ILBs C.J. Mosley (groin), and Blake Cashman (shoulder), and Week 9’s trade of DT Leonard Williams are likely to expose their up-front talent shortages sooner rather than later. Yielding the NFL’s fifth-most receiving yards per game to enemy backs (52.1), the Jets give Saquon Barkley a shot to bust his slump with just one game of 100-plus total yards since Week 2. Christian McCaffrey (@ GB) is Week 10’s only superior fantasy running back play to Barkley, whom I’d take straight up over Dalvin Cook (@ DAL) and Alvin Kamara (vs. ATL).
Jones’ Weeks 7-9 target distribution: Golden Tate 27; Barkley 23; Engram 20; Bennie Fowler 13; Cody Latimer and Darius Slayton 11; Rhett Ellison 9. … This sets up as an extreme-volume spot for Tate, who has six-plus catches in four straight games and dropped 6/102/1 on the typically impenetrable Patriots secondary when Engram and Shepard missed Week 6. The Jets have yielded completions on 28-of-36 (78%) slot targets in the last month; Tate runs 85% of his routes inside. Price permitting, Tate offers real DFS appeal. … Slayton is a sleeper for a spiked Week 10 after drawing a season-high eight targets in the aforementioned New England game and equaling his season high in routes run (49) last Monday night. Slayton is the Giants’ top perimeter threat; the Jets’ biggest pass-defense vulnerability remains outside, where CB Trumaine Johnson (ankle) is on I.R. and fellow starting CB Darryl Roberts injured his calf after lashing out at fans on social media. … Fowler has clearly passed Latimer as the next man up at third receiver but hasn’t scored a touchdown or exceeded 51 yards all season. … Ellison played 100% of the Giants’ sans-Engram Week 6 snaps, drawing six targets against the Patriots. Ellison has hands of stone but offers desperation streamer appeal in PPR leagues. TEs Mike Gesicki (6/95/0), Zach Ertz (5/57/1), and Jason Witten (5/57/0) all tagged the Jets for useful production within New York’s last five games.
Even amid disastrous coaching and even-worse offensive line play, Week 10 provides Sam Darnold with a perfect on-paper opportunity to bust his three-game funk against a Giants defense that has yielded top-ten QB1 results in 7-of-9 weeks. The G-Men rank in the bottom half of the league in both sacks (22) and quarterback hits (48) and have coughed up an NFL-high 8.9 yards per pass attempt. Darnold’s recent performance is an increasing concern and obviously heightens his risk, but you couldn’t draw up a better slump-busting spot. Darnold is a boom-bust QB1 option. … Le’Veon Bell appears poised to gut out his early-week knee scare against a Giants defense that’s been gashed for 229/1,029/7 (4.49 YPC) rushing by enemy backs. Following a three-week stint of 16 touches or fewer, Le’Veon resumed high-volume bellcow usage in last Sunday’s loss to Miami with 121 yards on 25 touches, including nine targets and eight catches, season highs for Bell since Week 2. While Bell’s health status should be monitored closely into Sunday, he’ll be a matchup- and volume-driven RB1 play should he get the green light as expected.
Darnold’s 2019 target distribution: Jamison Crowder 45; Robby Anderson 33; Le’Veon 28; Demaryius Thomas and Ryan Griffin 21; Ty Montgomery 4. … Crowder comes off one of his best games of the year (8/83/1) for a pristine Week 10 draw; the Giants have been flamed for 572 yards on 61 slot targets (9.4 YPA). Albeit most valued in PPR-specific formats, Crowder is an underrated WR3 play with usage and matchup on his side. … Per Sports Info Solutions, Darnold’s percentage of deep-ball attempts leaps from 5% to 13% in clean pockets this season, while the pass rush-deficient Giants have surrendered the NFL’s second-most deep-ball completions (20) and deep-ball touchdowns (7). Darnold has targeted Anderson on 8-of-16 deep balls this year. Anderson is always a boom-bust play in the Jets’ dysfunctional passing game, but Sunday’s matchup ups his likelihood of booming. … Dealing with a hamstring injury, Thomas is a touchdown-or-bust WR4/flex option against the G-Men without a 65-yard game or a pay-dirt trip on the year. … Chris Herndon’s (hamstring) availability remains up in the air coming off a limited practice week. Griffin will offer streamer appeal if Herndon can’t go after piling up 116 yards and two TDs on 12 targets over his last two games. The Giants gave up nine catches to Cowboys tight ends last week.
Score Prediction: Jets 24, Giants 23