Last updated: November 29th at 8:15am ET
Team Totals: Chiefs 30.5, Raiders 20.5
Down to 6-5 on the season with a minus-56-point differential after last week’s blowout loss to the Jets, the Raiders stay on the road to face a Chiefs team rested off its bye. Oakland’s best shot at keeping this one competitive is likely to ride Josh Jacobs versus Kansas City’s soft defensive front, which enemy backs have tortured for 265/1,338/8 (5.05 YPC) rushing and got lit up by Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler for 222 total yards last time out. While Jacobs’ on-paper matchup is favorable, projected game script is not with Oakland installed as ten-point road underdogs. Jacobs was scripted out of these teams’ Week 2 meeting with just 12 touches on 48% of the snaps in a 28-10 Chiefs win. Jacobs is a high-variance, fringe RB1/2 at Arrowhead. … Negative script would give Jalen Richard long-shot PPR sleeper life with 40-plus receiving yards in three of his last four games. Kansas City has allowed a league-high 63.6 receiving yards per game to running backs. … Derek Carr visits K.C. with just three top-12 fantasy finishes in 11 starts, exhibiting a low floor and ceiling with a single top-ten outcome all year. Sunday’s draw is still favorable enough to elevate Carr into streamer discussion. Raiders-Chiefs offers shootout potential with Week 13’s highest total, and 7-of-11 quarterbacks to face Kansas City have delivered top-12 fantasy scores.
Typically a safe-floor play with 40-plus yards and/or a touchdown in six straight games, Darren Waller’s Week 13 matchup is especially ripe against the Chiefs, who’ve allowed a league-high 72 catches and the NFL’s fifth-most yards (666) to tight ends, including a crisp 7/77/0 stat line to Chargers tight ends in their last game. Waller also popped as this week’s No. 1 buy-low tight end in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Model. He’s shaping up as a Week 13 smash. … Hunter Renfrow only commanded a 5.4-target average over his last five games with minimal Air Yards, but his loss to a broken rib and punctured lung will still cause box-score fallouts. Gruden mentioned Hard Knocks star Keelan Doss as Oakland’s next man up at slot receiver with Tyrell Williams and Zay Jones starting outside. … Williams’ big-play potential keeps him in WR3 contention with WR2 upside, leading Oakland’s roster in Air Yards by a margin of 188. Williams logged 5/46/1 receiving on seven targets when these teams met in Week 2. … Inefficient as he was in Buffalo, No. 2 receiver Jones has 88 scoreless yards on 14 targets since joining the Raiders.
7-4 facing a competitive division rival with an outside chance at still capturing a first-round playoff bye, the Chiefs return from their open date for a Week 13 smash spot at home versus Oakland. Andy Reid’s post-bye regular season record is 17-3 as an NFL coach, while Reid’s team has dropped scores of 40, 35, and 28 on Jon Gruden’s Raiders in their three 2018-2019 meetings. Patrick Mahomes’ corresponding fantasy results are QB1, QB14, and QB1 in such affairs. This year, quarterbacks have a combined 26:8 TD-to-INT ratio against the Raiders while averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt, the NFL’s third-highest mark. Mahomes is Week 13’s No. 1 quarterback play stackable in DFS with Tyreek Hill and/or Travis Kelce. … With Damien Williams (ribs) unlikely to play, LeSean McCoy and Darrel Williams will share Kansas City’s backfield after the latter Williams out-touched (13 to 11) and out-snapped (29 to 26) McCoy in the Chiefs’ pre-bye win over the Chargers. Williams did benefit from McCoy missing much of the fourth quarter due to a concussion check from which he was cleared. The good news is Oakland’s run defense is slipping, yielding 87/392/2 (4.51 YPC) rushing to enemy backs over its last four games and the NFL’s fifth-most receiving yards to running backs (563) over the course of the year. The bad news is Williams and McCoy’s near-even usage projections lower their floors and ceilings as RB2/flex plays.
Mahomes’ Weeks 10-11 target distribution: Tyreek 21; Kelce 17; Sammy Watkins 3; McCoy, Damien, and Demarcus Robinson 6; Mecole Hardman 5; Darrel Williams 4; Deon Yelder 2; Byron Pringle and Darwin Thompson 1. … All systems go after his pre-bye hamstring scare, Hill enters eruption territory against a Raiders secondary that’s yielded league highs in 20-plus-yard downfield completions (28) and touchdowns (9) on such attempts (Sports Info Solutions). TyFreak leads all NFL receivers in 20-plus-yard downfield targets (58), 20-plus-yard downfield catches (25), and 20-plus-yard downfield touchdowns (9) since the beginning of 2018. … Oakland is allowing the NFL’s fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends, while Kelce has carved the Raiders for a combined 24/337/3 stat line in three meetings since Gruden became coach. … Watkins has been a mostly-frustrating fantasy WR3 this year, but he is checking a lot of positive-regression boxes popping in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Week 13 Buy Low Air Yards Model and having failed to reach pay dirt since Week 1. … Robinson teased with the biggest game of his career when these teams met in Week 2 (6/172/2). Otherwise, he’s failed to top 56 yards in every Chiefs game despite playing 75% of the team’s offensive snaps. Robinson is a boom-bust WR4 in Sunday’s rematch. … Hardman is always a threat to take one the distance but hasn’t topped four targets in a game since Week 6. Hardman’s snap rates were 15% > 19% > 22% in Weeks 8-10 before Tyreek went out early in Kansas City’s Week 11 pre-bye win over the Chargers. Hardman is a low-volume No. 4 wideout.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 35, Raiders 20