Last updated: December 3rd at 8:30am ET
Team Totals: Ravens 24.5, Bills 18.5
As an unstoppable force meets an immovable object, Lamar Jackson visits Buffalo with top-12 fantasy outcomes in 11-of-12 starts to face a Bills defense that has held 10-of-12 quarterbacks faced to scores of QB13 or worse. Jackson is a bet-on-talent play in a wholly unappealing draw; Sean McDermott’s zone defense with highly athletic linebackers will keep constant eyes on Jackson as a runner and has given up the NFL’s third-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.2). The Ravens are a better team than the Bills, but very few clubs are better equipped to give Baltimore trouble than Buffalo is based on venue and style of play. … It’s no secret by now that McDermott is willing to concede rushing production in exchange for limiting big plays; Buffalo permits the NFL’s tenth-most yards per carry (4.5) but has given up the third-fewest completions of 20-plus yards (25) and the league’s third-fewest points per game (15.7). In other words, we should expect a near-full game from Mark Ingram in a favorable draw at near-neutral script rather than another blowout victory where Ingram takes a late seat in favor of Gus Edwards and Justice Hill.
Jackson’s post-bye target distribution: Mark Andrews 24; Marquise Brown 21; Nick Boyle 15; Willie Snead 13; Ingram and Hayden Hurst 10; Seth Roberts and Patrick Ricard 6; Miles Boykin 2. … No team has yielded fewer fantasy points to tight ends than Buffalo, although Jason Witten’s Thanksgiving eatery (6/42/1) against the Bills should instill some confidence in far-more-athletic Andrews against this same defense. A solid-floor, high-ceiling TE1 all year, Andrews has 45-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 9-of-12 games. … Brown is less trustworthy based on Buffalo’s schemed big-play disallowance, Tre’Davious White’s probable shadow coverage, and Brown’s low floor. Brown has cleared 50 yards once over his last eight games and concerningly ran just 16 routes in last week’s close bout with San Francisco. … Andrews and Brown continue to be the Ravens’ only pass catchers worth weekly fantasy discussion.
Finally gaining national respect they’ve gotten since preseason here at Establish The Run, the Bills catch their stiffest test against the Ravens following Buffalo’s post-Thanksgiving mini-bye. Few quarterbacks have offered floor-ceiling combos like Josh Allen, who enters Week 14 with four consecutive top-ten QB1 results. Yet Baltimore’s elite pass defense has yielded top-12 fantasy scores to just 1-of-12 signal callers faced, including shutdowns of Russell Wilson (QB18), Tom Brady (QB21), Jared Goff (QB26), Deshaun Watson (QB28), and Jimmy Garoppolo (QB31) since acquiring CB Marcus Peters. In what I expect to be a defensive slugfest, I’m shying away from Allen as a surefire season-long start. … Averaging 17.8 touches over Buffalo’s last five games, Devin Singletary remains a confident RB2 play versus an overrated Baltimore run defense enemy backs blowtorched for 185/908/9 (4.91 YPC) rushing over its last ten games, highlighted by Raheem Mostert’s Week 13 breakout (19/146/1). Continuing to establish himself as Buffalo’s bellcow back, Singletary played a season-high 78% of the Bills’ offensive snaps on Thanksgiving, out-touched Frank Gore 17 to 10, and ran 30-plus pass routes for the third time this year.
Allen’s 2019 target distribution: John Brown 88; Cole Beasley 76; Dawson Knox 39; Singletary 28; Isaiah McKenzie 27; Gore 12; Robert Foster 9; Duke Williams and Tyler Kroft 7. … Since the Ravens’ trade for Peters, outside CBs Peters and Jimmy Smith have yielded 37 completions on 65 targets (57%) for 398 yards (6.1 YPA), two touchdowns, and four picks. Based on matchup, I’m downgrading Brown from an every-week WR2 to high-risk WR2/3 territory. … Slot-type WRs Julian Edelman (10/89/0), Mohamed Sanu (10/81/1), Tyler Boyd (6/62/0), Tyler Lockett (5/61/1), and Kendrick Bourne (3/42/0) have logged at- or above-expectation PPR results against the Ravens over their last five games. Beasley has earned every-week WR3 treatment with 70-plus yards and/or a touchdown in six of his last seven outings. … Albeit impressive for a rookie tight end, Knox has settled in as a touchdown-or-bust play without a game above six targets all season. … McKenzie and Foster shared third-receiver duties against Dallas on Thanksgiving, but Buffalo’s passing offense can’t support more than one or two producers each week.
Score Prediction: Bills 20, Ravens 17