Last updated: November 21st at 10:45pm ET
Team Totals: Ravens 25, Rams 21.5
Lamar Jackson visits L.A. in another opportunity to demonstrate his matchup-proof scoring ability. The Rams have held 8-of-10 quarterbacks faced to fantasy results of QB15 or worse while allowing the NFL’s fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.7) and a league-low 45 QB rushing yards. Rams opponents have scored 17 points or fewer in four straight games, while Jackson managed uneven outcomes of QB17 (Steelers) and QB3 (Patriots) against the best two defenses he’s faced so far this year. Even as Jackson’s floor may be a bit lower than usual on the road against crafty Rams DC Wade Phillips, Jackson always maintains slate-breaking overall QB1 upside. Incredibly, he’s posted top-three scores in 7-of-10 starts. … The matchup for Baltimore’s Week 12 backfield is just as tough on paper; Phillips’ defense has stymied enemy backs for 3.53 yards per carry and just 37.8 receiving yards per game. Mark Ingram’s touchdown equity remains as high as any back’s in football as lead runner in one of the NFL’s best-ever rushing offenses with the league’s third-most carries inside the five-yard line (11) and ten all-purpose TDs on the year. Ingram has been an every-week RB2 with touchdown-reliant RB1 upside all season, and that doesn’t change this week. … Gus Edwards’ season-best rushing line (8/112/1) in last week’s 41-7 trouncing of Houston was due largely to the massively lopsided score; Edwards’ 63-yard touchdown sprint occurred with Baltimore up 34-7 and four minutes left. Edwards is playable on one-game DFS slates but still lacks season-long flex appeal averaging under seven touches over his last eight games.
Jackson’s post-bye target distribution: Mark Andrews 15; Nick Boyle and Marquise Brown 12; Willie Snead 8; Ingram 7; Hayden Hurst 6; Patrick Ricard 4; Miles Boykin and Seth Roberts 1. … This is a plus draw for Andrews against the Rams, who gave up top-12 fantasy scores to George Kittle (8/103/0), Will Dissly (4/81/0), Tyler Eifert (6/74/0), Austin Hooper (4/46/1), and Cameron Brate (3/36/1) over their last seven games. … Possession/blocking TE Boyle is worth consideration on one-game DFS slates with an over-75% playing-time role on offense. … On paper, Brown’s Week 12 draw is arguably worst in the Ravens’ pass-catcher corps. The Rams have permitted the NFL’s second-fewest completions of 20-plus yards (21), while Brown is a virtual lock to draw Jalen Ramsey’s shadow coverage throughout Monday night’s game. Brown maintains major one-game DFS appeal based on his slate-altering big-play potential, but he is a low-floor WR3 bet in season-long leagues. … For one-game DFSers searching for sleepers, here is how Week 11 pass routes were distributed in Baltimore’s passing game: Roberts 21; Brown 20; Boyle and Snead 17; Andrews 15; Ingram 13; Hurst 11; Boykin 9; Edwards and Ricard 8.
The Ravens’ secondary dominance with Marcus Peters bookending a healthy Jimmy Smith and Marlon Humphrey transitioning inside has allowed pass-rusher-deficient Baltimore to climb to No. 4 in QB Hit Rate (18.7%), concerning for pressure-sensitive Jared Goff. Just 1-of-10 passers to face the Ravens has logged top-12 fantasy results, including shutdowns of Deshaun Watson (QB28), Tom Brady (QB21), Russell Wilson (QB18), and Kyler Murray (QB18). Goff doesn’t warrant season-long QB1 consideration but does offer contrarian one-game DFS-tournament appeal in a matchup where Lamar Jackson will command over twice as much ownership. … Todd Gurley draws Los Angeles’ top Week 12 skill-player matchup against the Ravens, who’ve yielded 154/734/8 (4.77 YPC) rushing to enemy backs over their last eight games but the NFL’s sixth-fewest receiving yards per game to Gurley’s position (34.5). Held under 100 total yards in 8-of-10 games, Gurley remains a low-floor, touchdown-reliant RB2 who got vultured at the goal line by Malcolm Brown last week and has four catches over his last four games.
Goff’s 2019 target distribution: Cooper Kupp 94; Robert Woods 71; Gerald Everett 57; Brandin Cooks 45; Gurley 31; Josh Reynolds 29; Tyler Higbee 27; Darrell Henderson 6. … Held to 53 yards or fewer in four of his last five games, it’s fair to wonder if Kupp is hitting a wall after his hot start coming off last year’s ACL tear. The good news is fellow slot-type WRs Julian Edelman (10/89/0), Mohamed Sanu (10/81/1), Tyler Boyd (6/62/0), and Tyler Lockett (5/61/1) have produced useful fantasy results against Baltimore within the Ravens’ last four games. Perhaps Kupp isn’t the elite WR1 he looked to be early in the season, but at worst he’s a strong, volume-based WR2. … The Rams expect to have both Woods (personal) and Cooks (concussions) back after the former missed Week 11, and the latter has been out since Week 8. Unfortunately, they will encounter stingy perimeter coverage from Ravens RCB Jimmy Smith and LCB Marcus Peters, who since Peters was acquired in Week 7 have combined to allow just 23 completions on 43 targets (53%) for 205 yards (4.8 YPA) and one touchdown. Woods is a good enough route runner to stay fringe WR3/flex worthy. Cooks’ outlook likely hinges on a big play, which were elusive for Cooks in his first eight appearances, where his 16-game pace was 54/804/2. … Perhaps due to a wrist injury, Everett logged Week 11 season lows in snaps (26%) and routes run (8), playing behind Higbee and “Johnny Mundt.” Neither Higbee nor Mundt drew a single target against the Bears. Not on this week’s injury report, Everett should resume his boom-bust role versus Baltimore. Everett has 21 yards or fewer in 6-of-10 games. … Reynolds figures to resume No. 4 wideout duties in Cooks’ return.
Score Prediction: Ravens 23, Rams 17