Last updated: November 6th at 7:45am ET
Team Totals: Cowboys 25.5, Vikings 22.5
Still hot with a 13:1 TD-to-INT ratio over his last five starts, Kirk Cousins’ Week 10 draw sets up as a tough one at the Cowboys, who’ve yielded fantasy scores above QB15 to just 2-of-8 quarterbacks faced and flashed dominant pass-rush ability in last Monday night’s win over the Giants, sacking Daniel Jones five times with 12 QB hits paced by newly acquired Michael Bennett . Inside Dallas’ JerryWorld dome, this is a game where Minnesota’s pass-protection deficiencies could be badly exposed. Cousins has been pressured at the fourth-highest rate (41%) among 36 qualified passers. Dallas’ D/ST is quite playable, while Cousins seems likely to struggle, especially without Adam Thielen (hamstring). … Dalvin Cook has 18-plus touches in 9-of-9 games and 115-plus total yards in 7-of-9 to face a Cowboys defense that has yielded a modest 147/617/7 (4.20 YPC) rushing line and the NFL’s fifth-most catches (53) to enemy backs. Expect a renewed ground-game emphasis from Minnesota after coach Mike Zimmer attributed last week’s loss in Kansas City to not establishing the run enough. Despite his somewhat unideal road matchup against a talented Cowboys front seven, Cook remains a top-three fantasy running back play. With Thielen shelved for essentially the last two games, Cook led the Vikings in Weeks 8-9 targets.
Cousins’ Weeks 8-9 target distribution: Cook 13; Stefon Diggs 11; Irv Smith 9; Kyle Rudolph 8; Laquon Treadwell 6; Bisi Johnson and C.J. Ham 4; Alexander Mattison 3. … A massive Week 9 bust with just four yards on four targets against the Chiefs, Diggs’ bounce-back likelihood is strong as a probable target magnet at JerryWorld. The Cowboys have allowed the NFL’s fifth-fewest fantasy points to receivers, but Diggs is a bet-on-talent and bet-on-opportunity WR1 play with Thielen out for at least one more week. Diggs still has 100-plus yards in four of his last six games. … Smith ran a year-high 28 pass routes and equaled his season high in targets (6) after Thielen’s Week 9 early exit. A viable bye-week streamer and definite one-game DFS-slate option, Smith faces a Cowboys defense against which tight ends have caught 45-of-61 targets (74%) for 483 yards (7.92 YPA) and three touchdowns. … Rudolph ran 29 routes last week and has hit pay dirt in two of Minnesota’s last three games. His Week 10 outlook is similar to Smith’s with higher scoring probability. … Despite Treadwell’s slight target lead, Johnson is the preferred WR4 and one-game DFS-slate play with 62 routes run compared to Treadwell’s 15 in the last two games.
On a two-game win streak with fantasy scores of QB13 or better in 7-of-8 starts and six top-eight results, Dak Prescott encounters a Vikings defense that’s yielded just two top-12 QB1 outcomes in nine games. Mike Zimmer’s unit thrives on up-front pressure, however, which Dallas can counteract with a healthy offensive line that didn’t allow a single sack on 35 Prescott dropbacks against the Giants last Monday night. The Cowboys have enough Week 10 advantages in terms of homefield, wideout-cornerback matchups, and pass protection for Prescott to stay entrenched as a confident QB1, while the Vikings don’t have anyone in the secondary capable of consistently guarding Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper. Dak’s four fantasy results in home games this year are QB8 > QB5 > QB7 > QB2. … Facing a Vikings run defense that’s permitted a crisp 176/774/2 (4.40 YPC) rushing line to enemy backs, Ezekiel Elliott’s Week 10 matchup is less imposing than Prescott’s as a home-favorite bellcow with 20-plus touches in six of his last seven games. On the week, Zeke is a shoo-in top-four RB1 fantasy play versus Minnesota.
Dak’s post-bye target distribution: Jason Witten 9; Randall Cobb 8; Cooper 7; Gallup 6; Tony Pollard 3; Blake Jarwin 1. … The Vikings are the NFL’s only team yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end, notably limiting Travis Kelce (7/62/0), Zach Ertz (4/54/0), Dallas Goedert (5/48/0), and T.J. Hockenson (3/32/0) over the last four weeks. Witten hasn’t cleared 60 yards in an NFL game since October 8, 2017. … Cobb was a net negative in Week 9, committing two penalties and losing a killer second-quarter fumble. Cobb and Witten are one-game DFS-slate plays but lack season-long starter appeal. Cobb has gone 15 straight games without clearing 70 yards. … Beginning with most recent, Amari’s stat lines in home games since joining the Cowboys are 5/106/0 > 11/226/1 > 6/88/2 > 6/106/1 > 7/106/0 > 4/20/0 > 10/217/3 > 8/76/0 > 8/180/2 > 5/58/1. Even after last week’s knee scare, Cooper is a cinch WR1 start. … Both Dallas perimeter wideouts catch appealing Week 10 draws against Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes, who’ve collectively yielded completions on 80-of-105 targets (76.2%) for 834 yards (7.94 YPA) and seven touchdowns. All told, Minnesota’s secondary has coughed up a league-high 128 catches to enemy wideouts. Gallup is an underrated WR2/3 play in an overrated matchup on Sunday night.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 27, Vikings 20