Each week in this space, we’ll look at how fantasy football ADP has changed across real money drafts over the past week. The goal is to learn how drafters playing for cash prizes are reacting to news, injuries, and more to build their teams. Finally, at the bottom of the article, we will pull out the takeaways we think are important to understand from these moves.
To listen to a breakdown of this info in a short audio format, check out the Establish The Run Podcast (Episode released Monday afternoon).
We cover ADPs for Underdog Fantasy, FFPC, and NFFC. In the future, we will add “home league” ADP to this report.
- Michael Thomas has seen his ADP rise almost a full round on Underdog, which is a pretty huge movement. The news around his health has been good, but we believe the market is ignoring other risk factors — most notably an aging WR who has missed more than a full season coming back to a serious QB downgrade and increased WR competition. The target hog upside is appealing, so we don’t have WR34 as a big overpay, but we prefer Thomas a few WR spots later.
- With the signing of Julio Jones and positive news around the health of Chris Godwin, there’s been a massive shift in ADP for the Tampa Bay pass catchers. Jones has seen his ADP increase by more than four rounds on both Underdog and FFPC. His current Underdog ADP of WR64 is right where we have him ranked, but we suspect it continues to increase to a point where he’s an overpay. Meanwhile, Russell Gage is seeing his ADP plummet. It hasn’t fallen enough yet in our eyes, but if/when Jones’ ADP leapfrogs Gage’s, Gage may actually turn into a buy-low guy. We still prefer him over Jones straight up given our expectations for regular-season usage. Godwin remains one of our favorite fifth-/sixth-round targets.
- The hype out of Buffalo Bills camp is that Isaiah McKenzie is a serious challenger for the starting slot role, leading to a massive ADP rise for him and subsequent ADP fall for Jamison Crowder. We’ve shifted our expectations for the Buffalo offense and are worried the duo might cannibalize each other all season. Despite both playing slot WR, their usage is likely to be different and that likely means some split time, regardless of who is the starter. Throw in some potential new personnel groupings for Buffalo with the additions of O.J. Howard and James Cook as pass catchers, and we’re cooling on the McKenzie/Crowder upside for the time being.
- A trio of rookies with a lot of camp hype are seeing their ADP rise everywhere — Wan’Dale Robinson, George Pickens, and Romeo Doubs. Even with the increasing ADP, we’re generally ahead of the market on these three WRs. It’s tough to find big wins at WR late in the draft, but that outcome is most plausible with talented rookies who are stepping into opportunity.
