Dynasty Outlook
April 5
Metchie is a second-round target for rookie drafts, coming in as our WR9 for this class. He is WR53 in our overall dynasty ranks. Metchie should earn slot duties for whatever team ends up drafting him, and we have seen those kinds of roles produce high PPR upside in the past. He comps favorably to some other prospects who have commanded a high volume of short-area targets despite constantly having first-round competition while at Alabama. We like the value proposition that Metchie presents after an ACL tear in the conference championship game. He is going much later in rookie drafts than the typical Alabama WR, making the variance-adding unknowns to his profile desirable at ADP.
Profile Summary
John Metchie is the last of what has been an insane run of Alabama WRs the last few years. Though he is not quite the same caliber of prospect as the top-15 picks out of the school, he does comp closely to other players expected to be drafted in the back-half of Round 1. An ACL tear in the conference championship game likely pushes him to the middle of Round 2, with an absolute floor in Round 3. The scouts believe that Metchie can be an immediate contributor in the slot at the NFL level. His ability to soak up volume was well-documented his last two seasons at Alabama.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/21) — 21.5
Experience — 3 years
Height — 71.25 inches
Weight — 187 pounds
Hand Size — 9.25 inches
Arm Length — 30.625 inches
Wingspan — 73.375
By the Numbers
Metchie’s career did not get off to a quick start, as he had to share a depth chart with an absurd four first-round NFL picks. As a true sophomore, he managed to make a real impact while playing next to Heisman winner Devonta Smith and sixth overall pick Jaylen Waddle. Waddle missed much of the season due to injury, but we can see that Metchie was still a key cog in the offense for the four full games Waddle participated in pre-injury.
Waddle — 557 yards (35%), 4 TDs
Smith — 483 yards (31%), 4 TDs
Metchie — 348 yards (22%), 3 TDs
After Waddle and Smith left, Alabama brought in Jameson Williams as a transfer — yet another (expected) first-round pick. Again, Metchie held his own, though Williams was clearly the more explosive player. Here’s how they fared in 13 games played together prior to Metchie tearing his ACL.
Williams — 1,445 yards (34%), 15 TDs, 21.3 YPR
Metchie — 1,142 yards (25%), 8 TDs, 11.9 YPR
By the numbers, it would appear that Metchie functioned as a low-aDOT slot option underneath the deeper Williams routes. Though Metchie never achieved a statistical breakout, the context of his career tells us he probably would have at another school. He also still left after three seasons.
What the Scouts are Saying
Daniel Jeremiah had the following commentary in his yearly conference call with NFL media:
But Metchie is going to be a great value pick in this draft. He is a ready-made slot. He is really, really a crisp route runner. He’s tough. He’s strong. The ACL injury is just a matter of where you take him, but I don’t think his game was really ever built on speed, so — and I think — I wrote down in my comparison he reminded me of an Amari Rodgers-type player who went to the Packers because he can do a lot of different things. In terms of those whip routes they ask him to run, he’s outstanding at it. I would guess with the injury and a pretty deep receiver corps, he might — third, fourth round. Maybe he gets in the fourth round. It would be a heck of a pick for somebody.
Dane Brugler has some similar notes to Jeremiah:
Metchie, who lived on three different continents before his seventh birthday, adopted a fierce work ethic and devotion to his craft, which is evident on film. He has only average size and speed but is an instinctive route runner who understands how to manipulate coverage and be a quarterback’s best friend. As long as he makes a full recovery from his ACL tear, he should be a quality No. 2 receiver in the NFL.
Lance Zierlein agrees with the rest of the scouts that Metchie is an NFL-ready slot:
NFL slot projection with good polish but a lack of noteworthy elements in his game. Metchie has decent size but average play speed. He’s proficient in more sophisticated routes but lacks explosiveness to separate and will have to prove he can become a more physical wideout to win contested catches at the pro level. He can play multiple receiver spots and has the ability to take what the scheme provides him. As long as his recovery from an ACL tear goes smoothly, Metchie has a chance to become a starting slot receiver with a relatively modest ceiling.
Draft Projection
Metchie currently has an expected draft position of 86.7 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Metchie 49th overall. He goes 54th in Brugler’s latest mock draft, and 49th in Todd McShay’s latest. Metchie appears to be in line to crack the top 50.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate WR prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable WRs in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
It is important to note that similar to other players studied so far this spring, Metchie’s comps are likely not painting the full picture of his NFL potential due to the competition he faced in college. Even with that obstruction, we see attractive ceiling comps of Diontae Johnson and Mike Walker. Sterling Shepard and Ted Ginn had decent careers as well. It is also worth noting that Metchie draws comparisons to three first-round selections and two other top-40 picks.
Building off of that, Metchie draws in comps from his own draft class. Jahan Dotson, Williams, and Chris Olave are all in Metchie’s top 12 overall comps. Without his ACL tear, there is a decent chance he would have found himself in the first round. Metchie appears to be a rare opportunity to obtain an Alabama WR as a value.
