I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games. I make one cash lineup for DraftKings and one for FanDuel.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineups in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
This was a very similar slate to what we’ve had lately on DraftKings. The best plays were the most expensive plays, and there were barely any cheap RB/WR to feel good about. So a lot of our optimals included tight end in flex. I significantly reduced my action for this slate, I don’t think it’s the best setup for the way I like to play.
Note: Unless stated otherwise, the discussion below is about DraftKings.
MY MUST PLAYS
* This was not a good quarterback slate at all. And given how strong the high-priced studs were, paying down at QB was an absolutely must. The fact that Jacoby Brissett was just $5300 in a home game against the Falcons made it easy. The Cardinals have relentlessly dropped back Brissett at a league-high rate ever since he took over, and 40+ dropbacks in this matchup at this price was a lock. On Fanduel, Bo Nix was only $100 more than Brissett.
* As we saw in Week 15, Jahmyr Gibbs can fail. But I want to keep betting on one of the NFL’s most explosive players, who is seeing an expanded role since Dan Campbell took over playcalling. And is seeing an expanded target share ever since Sam LaPorta went down. And is part of the team with easily the highest team total on the slate.
* Bijan Robinson is a standout play weekly thanks to his unique pass-catching role and explosive running ability. But once we add in a matchup against the Cardinals, the 4th-best matchup for RBs in our DvP data, Bijan became a must. He was our second-best salary-adjusted value on the entire slate, behind only Gibbs.
* Yes, the Bills have the best tight end defense in the league. But I’m always going to massively overweight raw volume vs. matchup, and Harold Fannin is a perfect example. With David Njoku out and Shadeur Sanders at QB, a 30%+ target share for Fannin as a 10.5-point dog was very much in play. At $4500, that’s a must.
* In a vacuum, DK Metcalf was not a must. No Arthur Smith player ever is, and Metcalf has shown his non-existent floor plenty this season. But this was the ideal setup for Metcalf. The Steelers projected to be trailing, and needing to throw a lot to keep up with the Lions. This was also a defense without two of their top defenders, Brian Branch and Terrion Arnold. More importantly, the saving Metcalf provided at $5400 was necessary.
MY WANT PLAYS
* I preferred the Bengals (against Quinn Ewers) or Giants (against JJ McCarthy) as a punt. But as always at D/ST, I’m ideally paying as little as possible. That left the Jets D/ST at just $2100 against Tyler Shough.
* I desperately needed to save money at WR. With Rashee Rice out, I thought there was a decent chance Xavier Worthy would fill those screens and drag routes that Rice eats on underneath. That’s what happened down the stretch last year, when Worthy became a very valuable fantasy player into the playoffs. Of course Gardner Minshew was a massive downgrade from Patrick Mahomes, but at just $4400 I was willing to risk it on Worthy. Especially against the pass-funneling Titans defense.
* The last 2v2 I looked at was Courtland Sutton and Michael Carter vs. Jameson Williams and Travis Kelce. We had it projected around dead even. I went back-and-forth for a while and really couldn’t find a lean. In the end, I decided simply having more Lions in my lineup is better.
Week 16 Results
I actually think the team I played on DraftKings was roughly right. But I got the last 2v2 wrong for the third straight week. In hindsight when it’s close between RB and TE, I have almost always gone RB for my entire DFS career. So it’s a bit frustrating to not land there this time, as the Michael Carter/Courtland Sutton side won by 13.5 points.
YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS
Week 1 DraftKings: 111.32 points, won 37.0% of head-to-heads
Week 2 DraftKings: 145.40 points, won 76.5% of head-to-heads
Week 3 DraftKings: 168.68 points, won 70.6% of head-to-heads
Week 4 DraftKings: Did not play
Week 5 Draftkings: 192.22 points, won 87.5% of head-to-heads
Week 6 DraftKings: 153.92 points, won 56.8% of head-to-heads
Week 7 DraftKings: 186.04 points, won 94.9% of head-to-heads
Week 8 DraftKings: 95.48 points, won 11.4% of head-to-heads
Week 9 DraftKings: 179.04 points, won 86.8% of head-to-heads
Week 10 DraftKings: 189.72 points, won 86.4% of head-to-heads
Week 11 DraftKings: 154.88 points, won 75.7% of head-to-heads
Week 12 DraftKings: 200.28 points, won 77.0% of head-to-heads
Week 13 DraftKings: 82.44 points, won 2.9% of head-to-heads
Week 14 DraftKings: 123.12 points, won 28.0% of head-to-heads
Week 15 DraftKings: 132.8 points, won 47.4% of head-to-heads
Week 16 DraftKings: 115.62 points, won 33.3% of head-to-heads
Week 1 FanDuel: 114.22 points, won 92.3% of head-to-heads
Week 2 FanDuel: 119.00 points, won 95.2% of head-to-heads
Week 3 FanDuel: 149.42 points, won 82.6% of head-to-heads
Week 4 FanDuel: Did not play
Week 5 FanDuel: 177.7 points, won 89.4% of head-to-heads
Week 6 FanDuel: 149.62 points, won 90.1% of head-to-heads
Week 7 FanDuel: 160.44 points, won 66.7% of head-to-heads
Week 8 FanDuel: 158.18 points, won 100% of head-to-heads
Week 9 FanDuel: 120.2 points, won 42.9% of head-to-heads
Week 10 FanDuel: 137.32 points, won 58.8% of head-to-heads
Week 11 FanDuel: 94.9 points, won 46.7% of head-to-heads
Week 12 FanDuel: 158.56 points, won 52.2% of head-to-heads
Week 13 FanDuel: 122.84 points, won 100% of head-to-heads
Week 14 FanDuel: 153.84 points, won 60.0% of head-to-heads
Week 15 FanDuel: 121.6 points, won 27.0% of head-to-heads
Week 16 FanDuel: 122.88 points, won 45.3% of head-to-heads
