Dynasty Outlook
March 22
Pickett is currently our QB2 for rookie drafts, and a low-end QB2 in our overall dynasty ranks. When looking at what makes a quality QB prospect for fantasy, Pickett checks all of the production boxes, and will likely have Day 1 draft capital. However, his status as an older player hurts his chances of success in terms of the base rate. Pickett also doesn’t offer upside-altering speed, though his rushing ability likely can provide a few points here and there. Considered pro-ready, Pickett should get to play right away, which offers some additional value in Superflex formats. His most comparable players paint a picture of someone who will likely be a long-term QB2 if he is able to stick in the league.
Profile Summary
Kenny Pickett is likely to be the first or second quarterback taken in this year’s NFL Draft. He has adequate size and speed, but is older than the other top prospects, and didn’t really break out until his final season. Scouts seem to like his accuracy and decision-making. Though he is a first-round prospect, Pickett comps favorable to more Day 2 players from the past. There is some rushing upside here past a more traditional pocket passer. His hand size is one of the more polarizing pieces of data, as there are currently no starting QBs in the NFL with hands under nine inches.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/21) — 23.6
Experience — 5 years
Height — 75.25 inches
Weight — 217 pounds
Hand Size — 8.5 inches
Arm Length — 30.875 inches
Wingspan — 73.75 inches
Forty — 4.73 seconds
Vertical — 33.5 inches
Broad — 121 inches
By the Numbers
Pickett is a five-year college player, and four-year starter. After his first four seasons, Pickett was likely to be a Day 2 pick at best. It was the fifth season that set him up to be a first-round selection this year, with an AYA close to 10, and adjusted QB yards per play of 4.8. This was an elite statistical season.
Pickett is not an immensely productive rusher, but found the end zone 13 times on the ground. His 4.73 time in the 40 at the NFL Combine indicates that he can be good enough in this area to make a few plays with his legs both extending plays and scrambling.
What the Scouts are Saying
Daniel Jeremiah had this to say about Pickett:
Pickett has ideal size, athleticism, and accuracy for the position. He has a lot of twitch in his lower half, which shows up in his ability to avoid defenders inside the pocket or escape to make plays. He has a quick release and incorporates a variety of arm angles. He doesn’t have elite velocity but makes up for it with outstanding anticipation. He has quick eyes to get to his third progression. His accuracy is excellent, but there have been a few occasions when his eyes are faster than his feet, which affects his ball placement. He is very poised and comfortable throwing on the move. He doesn’t panic and he delivers strikes. He has excellent speed and elusiveness as a runner. There will be talk about his hand size and throwing with a glove — neither topic concerns me. Overall, Pickett reminds me of a more athletic Matt Hasselbeck.
Dane Brugler has similar notes on Pickett regarding his accuracy and instincts:
Pickett shows outstanding instincts as a passer with his ability to throw receivers open, keep his eyes on schedule, and make quick-reaction decisions. Though his confidence is more of a strength than weakness, he will get greedy at times, forcing throws into tight coverage and writing checks his arm can’t cash. Overall, Pickett has some skittish tendencies, and the hand size (throws with a glove) will be a factor for some teams, but his football IQ, functional mobility, and accuracy from various platforms are a special package.
Lance Zierlein indicates that Pickett may be a little more boom/bust than most think:
Pickett has five years of game experience and four years of starting experience for Pitt. He’s a fairly toolsy pocket passer with good mobility. He operated in a passing scheme featuring vertical concepts that created big-play opportunities, but left food on the plate when he failed to play chess against the back-end of the coverage. Pickett works with average anticipation but drives the ball with good velocity, which should help him shine in pre-draft passing drills. Pickett’s touch and placement need work, but his accuracy stats were damaged by an inordinate amount of drops throughout his career. The top indicator for future success or failure will likely rest in a team’s ability to build Pickett’s trust, poise, and discipline from the pocket. He can make all the throws, but he’ll only be able to execute against disguised fronts and NFL pressure if he’s willing to hang in and win with his eyes first. He carries a boom/bust label, but the 2021 tape and productivity showed off his potential to become a good starter in time.
Draft Projection
Pickett currently has an expected draft position of 13.4 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. NFL Mock Draft Database, a similar service, has him 14th overall. He goes 11th in Brugler’s most recent mock, and 18th in Jeremiah’s. Pickett is likely to be selected in the middle of Round 1.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate QB prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable QBs in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
QB comps are noticeably difficult to come up with given the overall sample size of players we have to observe. We should be using the comps to see A) What is the likelihood this QB is a long-term starter and B) If he is, what is his upside?
Something that stands out when observing the comps lines up with what many of the scouts have said — Pickett looks a lot like a Day 2 QB who has been pushed up into Day 1 territory due to the weakness of the class. That isn’t to say he can’t still be successful. Jay Cutler and Derek Carr have had long careers as pocket passers, while Davis Mills showed enough flashes as a rookie to get another long look in 2022.
The ceiling on these comps are notably low. Carr and Cutler only have two QB1 finishes between them, and only one of those was higher than QB12 (Cutler finished QB3 in 2008). Mitch Trubisky has managed to be more successful in fantasy than reality with the scoring he has derived from rushing. Other passers on this list — Kevin Kolb, Colt McCoy, and Jimmy Clausen — had a limited amount of starting experience with little fantasy production.
