Waiver Wire Analysis: Week 5

It’s Week 5. As fantasy analysts, it’s important to remember that as an industry we are ALWAYS 100% ACCURATE about how the season will play out. As was entirely obvious entering Week 1, the Cincinnati Bengals are the worst offense in the NFL, which is why their skill players weren’t taken until the final rounds of fantasy drafts. Ja’Marr Chase was drafted…(*checks notes*)…in the first round? Ahead of Christian McCaffrey? Okay…well, at least nobody was drafting Tee Higgins…who went at the 2-3 turn? Ok, well…at least nobody fell for the Joe Mixon trap again…right? What? He was going in the third round in most leagues? Oh god. What happened? Are we all idiots?

Obviously I’m kidding, but I understand why some fantasy managers want to panic, or embrace nihilism. I want to remind you that if you bought in on Bengals players, or any other offense that is performing far below expectation, you are NOT an idiot. Nobody saw the Bengals’ implosion coming (though in retrospect we should have paid more attention to Joe Burrow’s preseason calf injury), and plenty more unpredictable events will unfold from now until the end of the season. That is the nature of the NFL.

The best we can do as fantasy managers is accept the chaotic nature of the game we play, and make moves on the waiver wire to try to stay one step ahead of our opponents. That will be the focus of today’s article — how can we outmaneuver our league-mates on the waiver wire heading into Week 5?

As a reminder, here are explanations for each section of the article. Read the descriptions below to determine whether “Home-League Waiver Targets” or “Deeper-League Targets” is more relevant for your particular league:

• Home-League Waiver Targets: This section focuses on the typical “home league” with friends, family members, and co-workers. These leagues typically include starting lineups of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2-3 WRs, 1 TE, 1-2 FLEX, 1 K, 1 D/ST, and 5-7 BENCH spots. I will use ESPN & Yahoo rostership percentages to gauge which players are available in a typical league. To qualify as a waiver target, the player must be rostered in <40% of leagues on either Yahoo or ESPN.
• Deeper-League Targets: This section will be focused on deeper leagues, which typically have additional starting lineup slots and deeper benches compared to the typical home league. Drafters who play in tournament contests on FFPC, NFFC, or similar should find this section helpful. To qualify as a deeper-league target, the player must be rostered in <50% of FFPC Main Event leagues.

Additionally, recommended FAAB bid percentages are given. These should generally be interpreted as a % of your original FAAB budget, not your current FAAB budget, though obviously keep in mind team- and league-specific considerations when making your bids.

For each list, I will rank the players in order based on how I would prioritize adding them to your teams. I will also include a “Drop List” of commonly rostered players that I would be comfortable parting ways with in order to add these targets to your team.

Note: This version of the article was written prior to Monday Night Football (Seahawks vs. Giants). If anything waivers-worthy happens during the game, the article will be updated Tuesday morning.

Top 10 Home-League Waiver Targets

Before diving into individual players, I want to provide some macro-FAAB strategy tips for Week 5 (for readers who don’t use FAAB in their leagues, feel free to skip this section). This week on waivers, there is a relatively flat tier of promising but unlikely to be season-changing acquisitions. Since there is likely a high quantity of these players available on waivers, I would recommend relatively low FAAB bids, perhaps even lower than my thresholds suggest, on a bunch of these players and let my league dictate who falls to me.

In other words, although I have these players ranked in order, outside of Romeo Doubs, who I view as a tier above the rest of the players on my list, I have relatively weak conviction on who I prefer. I don’t think there is a massive difference between Rashee Rice (ranked as the third-best add of the week) and Tyler Boyd (ranked as the 10th-best add). Obviously, feel free to make your own judgments if you view things differently than me, but I think it is a good week to save FAAB with a bunch of 0-3% bids and hope one of these players falls through the cracks, landing on your roster at a bargain.

Romeo Doubs

Rostership: 54% Yahoo, 34% ESPN

FAAB Recommendation: 15-30%

I get it. In most competitive leagues, Romeo Doubs is already owned. I’ll keep this short and sweet. 12-target games don’t grow on trees. Neither do 13-target games. Doubs has amassed those target totals in back-to-back weeks, this time catching nine balls for 95 yards against Detroit on Thursday night. Additionally, Doubs’ routes were not impacted by Christian Watson’s return, notching his highest route rate of the season (88%). On tape, Doubs is quietly emerging as a force to be reckoned with in contested-catch situations, and Jordan Love is noticing, showering the second-year WR with targets. With his current role, Doubs is firmly in the WR2/3 mix in weekly rankings and should be rostered in far more leagues than ESPN (34%) and Yahoo (54%) rostership percentages currently reflect. If I’m desperate for a starter at WR on a struggling team, I’m comfortable blowing up to 30% of my original FAAB budget on Doubs.

C.J. Stroud

Rostership: 47% Yahoo, 31% ESPN

FAAB Recommendation: 5-15%

C.J. Stroud’s passing yardage totals in his first four NFL games: 242, 384, 280, and 306 yards. That puts the talented rookie second to only Cam Newton in terms of most passing yards through four games of an NFL career. This offseason, I wrote about how rookies have been our best chance to find fantasy stars at QB off the waiver wire over the past several years. Stroud may be that star — he is already elevating his pass catchers (Nico Collins and Tank Dell) to fantasy relevance in the early days of his NFL career. For teams with underperforming or injured QB1s (e.g., Deshaun Watson, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields), Stroud might be the savior your roster needs if he continues to string together these strong performances. I’m currently viewing him as a low-end QB1 with weekly top-five upside in the right matchup. If you’re desperate for QB upside and Stroud is still hanging on the wire, I’m confident bidding up to 15% of my original FAAB budget for Stroud.

Rashee Rice