Adonai Mitchell was once talked about as a first-round prospect, but he fall all the way to the middle of Round 2 before the Colts scooped him up. Mitchell will join Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce in the Colts’ receiving corps, as Indianapolis continues to add weapons for franchise QB Anthony Richardson. Let’s dive into the fantasy outlook for these Indy wideouts.
ADONAI MITCHELL
Projection: 35.3 catches on 60.8 targets for 455.1 yards and 2.7 TDs
- Mitchell spent his first two seasons at Georgia and failed to eclipse a 13% Dominator Rating, although he dealt with a stacked depth chart as a freshman and a nagging high-ankle sprain in Year 2. He then transferred to Texas and immediately posted a 32% mark. He’s also a bigger WR (6-foot-2 and 205 pounds) and ran a 4.34 40-yard dash. That puts him in pretty rare company, as not many wideouts his size can move that fast. Most scouts noted Mitchell is still developing his WR skills, so this is far from a finished product, but the traits are there for him to be a great NFL receiver, and he had strong production in his final collegiate season. Reports indicate Mitchell didn’t interview well and his visits may not have gone well, causing him to fall to the middle of the second round.
- Mitchell should push and likely beats out Pierce for the WR3 role right away, as Pittman and Downs remain entrenched as the top-two WRs. Pittman is a lock for a mid-20s target share if he stays healthy, while Downs flashed strong target-earning ability as a rookie. Pierce has generally been a low-volume deep threat in his two years with the Colts – that will be the role Mitchell attempts to fill. With Richardson turning so many pass attempts into run plays and two good WRs ahead of him, Mitchell has a tenuous path to production in Year 1, especially now that he’s officially a mid-second-rounder instead of a first-round guy.
OTHER COLTS RECEIVERS
- This probably pushes Pierce to WR4 with Mitchell slotting in as the WR3. If Mitchell is way better than we realize, he could push Downs for WR2 targets-wise, but the expectation should be that he slots in behind Pittman and Downs with his talent depicting how much volume he’ll earn. This offense funnels targets to WRs since they don’t have much TE production, but so many of those targets go to Pittman (and Downs), and Jonathan Taylor should be healthy to flirt with a double-digit target share too. With Adonai’s meager production profile, we are projecting him for a slightly bigger role than Pierce had last year with Pittman and Downs only mildly affected and Pierce soaking up the rest of the WR targets.
