Welcome to the first edition of Quotes and Notes! In the NBA, there are plenty of instances when a head coach will reveal some actionable information from their press conferences, so the primary goal for this column will be to analyze why a specific piece of news is noteworthy and what we can do with this information. Plus, several reputable beat writers will shed some light on potentially murky rotation spots, so we’ll be mixing in plenty of those to get a clearer look on what the rotation and/or usage distribution will look like.
Editor’s Note: The NBA restart is just two weeks away and the action will be massive. Our package includes Tiered DFS Top Plays, Live Shows, continuously updating Depth Charts and more. Click here for more info.
The style for the column will have the quote or note to start, the second paragraph will be the why, and the third will be what it could mean. Here we go!
1. Brett Brown set an “ambitious” goal to play Joel Embiid 38 minutes per game in the playoffs.
The Process sits at 1.52 FD points per minute on the season to put him fourth in the NBA (Giannis, Luka, Harden), and he was sitting at just 30.2 minutes per game on the season, so that means he’d be sitting at 57.8 FD points per game if he keeps up his efficiency on the stat sheet. Based on what we’ve seen, that shouldn’t be a problem. He had only reached the 38-minute mark just twice this season, averaging 35.0 points, 14.0 boards and 2.0 dimes. Last year over six games with 36-plus minutes, he averaged 36.5 points, 13.7 boards, 3.0 dimes and 1.2 blocks for 60.9 FD points over 37.2 minutes per game (1.64 FD points per minute).
We’ll get to matchups when we get there, but Embiid getting this kind of volume gives him slate-breaking potential any postseason game he suits up. Brown did add that he expects to be “frugal” with minutes during scrimmages and should play his main guys normal minutes in the seeding games. Embiid’s minutes will likely trend up over the eight games. Meanwhile, this is bad news for Al Horford’s potential on a given night.
The 76ers have never used a lineup with Shake Milton, Josh Richardson, Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, so this would be a major rotation change for Brown. Ben and Shake have only played together for 223 minutes this season (-4.4 net rating) while Shake has a +6.1 net rating without Ben out there (Ben +3.1 in 1,707 minutes). Ben sliding over to the four also means Al Horford’s minutes will decrease even more.
In the seven games Shake was handed the keys to the offense while Ben was out, he put up a 19/2/4 line for 32.6 FD points over his 31.6 minutes per game. Milton had the ball in his hands for 6.1 minutes per game (would tie Chris Paul for 18th over the course of a season), and Ben Simmons had sat at a seventh-ranked 7.2 minutes per game over the season. There was a seven-game sample when Shake and Ben were starting together from Jan. 28 to Feb. 9, but that didn’t affect Simmons’ touch time at 7.5 minutes per game (Ben at 43.1 FD points per game, Shake at 19.6 in this span). That may change given how Ben may not set up the initial action when bringing the ball up after a made basket. Although, it’s not a huge deal if Ben doesn’t bring the ball up because he should still get his touches to create offense on grab-and-go moves with halfcourt touches. Over the last three years, Simmons has a 0.23 positive correlation of his touches per minute to his FD points per minute, which is below the average of 0.34 (H/T to Mike Leone for a new stat!). He’ll be used all over the court like when the 76ers started putting him in the dunker’s spot in halfcourt sets with more J-Rich ball-handling responsibility.
Besides LeVert, the Nets don’t have a single player available who has a usage rate higher than 18.7 with them this season (Dzanan Musa). Without Spencer Dinwiddie and Kyrie Irving on the floor over a 327-minute sample, LeVert put up a per-36 stat line of 31.5 points, 5.6 boards, 5.6 dimes, 1.4 steals and 3.9 treys (37.1 usage rate, 52.9 TS%, 104.3 pace, +0.6 net rating). LeVert has been used as a backup point guard at times since he returned from injury earlier this year, so he’s ticketed for a high-volume role as a ball-dominant guard going forward.
LeVert may have the best opportunity in the entire league right now, especially if the Nets choose to play faster under Vaughn with their lack of halfcourt scoring talent. Jamal Crawford is a fellow Wolverine and has also helped mentor Devin Booker, so LeVert is going to be in play every night regardless of matchup.
Nobody in the NBA has scored more points per game in 2020 than Bradley Beal’s 33.6 (Russell Westbrook second at 31.7), and he led the NBA in usage rate over that span at 36.7 over those 27 games. Shabazz Napier and Troy Brown Jr. have shown significant output efficiency when Beal is off the floor, and Brooks had used a Napier-Ish Smith combo for 20 minutes over eight games even when Beal was healthy. Jerome Robinson was getting key fourth quarter minutes just before his injury, including his eye-catching 36-minute breakout game when he suffered the injury (14/6/5 with three steals). Based off the team account’s pictures, the Wizards looked to be running a unit of Napier, Jerome Robinson, Troy Brown, Rui Hachimura and Moe Wagner while Ish Smith, Jerian Grant, Isaac Bonga, Johnathan Williams and Anzejs Pasecniks were in the second unit (Thomas Bryant didn’t practice at the time of this video). The Wizards are fifth in pace, and they’re the only team in the NBA with a time per possession on offense and defense in the top six four (four O, six D).
The Wizards are going to give up a ton of points, and project to be one of the fastest teams. That means identifying who has value will be essential. At the early stages right now, Napier, Smith, Brown and Robinson appear to be the most intriguing options to help fill out perimeter minutes (more on Bertans in future editions; Admiral Schofield is on #MuscleWatch).
Prior to the shutdown, the Blazers lineup of Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Trevor Ariza, Carmelo Anthony and Hassan Whiteside was the most-used lineup per game after the All-Star Game (min. of three games). With Ariza now out and the Blazers getting Nurkic and Zach Collins back, they’ll be skewing their rotations in a big way. Melo has rarely guarded point-of-attack players and will now have to do so with Collins, Nurk and Whiteside set to soak up many of the PF/C minutes. Stotts had mentioned that Gary Trent Jr. “picked up where he left off” and “defensively is where he made the biggest jump.” That means there should still be some Melo at the four to get Trent some time, and he may start in certain matchups to bump Collins to the bench. Last season, Damian Lillard did see a 5.6 usage rate decrease in his minutes with Nurk compared to without him, but he was more efficient with him, too (4.9 TS% with higher assists).
The Melo at SF creates potential smash spots for perimeter players going against the Blazers. Jayson Tatum gets a matchup against the Blazers on Aug. 2, and it’ll be interesting to see if Stotts will still use Melo in that matchup or swap in Trent for Collins (seems like an easy call to me). Teams will also be targeting Melo to switch on-ball more often, which may help ball-dominant scorers. Whiteside’s minutes will undoubtedly be dropping even with some spot minutes in two-center lineups. Collins’ output at center is much better than as a four, so it’s hard to get excited about him with such little opportunity as a five.
6. Coach Monty Williams hints Cam Johnson and Mikal Bridges could be in a “not as familiar” situation, and could use Devin Booker as a three, Bridges as a four and Johnson as a five, per Duane Rankin of AZ Central. Johnson also said he has put up “10ish-12ish pounds of muscle.”
If you’ve missed it, Kelly Oubre’s “health status is up to the staff” after a report he wasn’t going to play in Orlando. Williams added he wanted to win basketball games, but his quotes sure do suggest they’re going to try to expand the offensive games of some of his younger guys. In Mikal’s games with 20-plus minutes this season, he’s maxed out at just a 20.3 usage rate with a single-digit usage rate in 19 of his 65 games. Among players with 27 minutes per game, he also only touches the ball for 1.0 minute per game with only three qualifiers lower than him (Danuel House, P.J. Tucker, Duncan Robinson). Cam Johnson also had a breakout game on Mar. 3 with 21 points in 33 minutes, but mono kept him off the floor since. He also hit double-digit fourth-quarter minutes in three of his last seven. Ricky Rubio’s minutes will likely be managed to possibly get Ty Jerome and/or Jevon Carter some minutes at PG while Booker is expected to see time at the one to open up more wing minutes, but there was some talk of his minutes being managed, as well. <redacted note about Cameron Payne out of respect to Dink>
Rubio was one of the more ball-dominant players before the hiatus with a sixth-ranked 7.5 minutes of touch time over his last nine with his 10.6 dimes per game leading the league in that span, too. The Suns also lead the NBA in assist percentage at 66.6 this year, so more shots for Mikal and Cam could lead to a significant boost to 3-pointers from them, and Monty did say back in March he wanted Cam to keep shooting treys.
There are a lot of quotes these days, so we’ll have Quotes and Notes out every Monday, Wednesday and Friday going forward until the games are back (including tomorrow July 17).
