Before this summer, nobody was more associated with a 3-1 lead than LeBron James and the Warriors. Of course, you probably saw a million bad jokes on Twitter about how Denver is in a good spot, but this is a LeBron-led team here and the Lakers pulling out a big adjustment really gives them the upper hand. Plus, this is the 19th game for the Nuggets compared to 15 for the Lakers.
Los Angeles Lakers (-6) vs. Denver Nuggets, 9:00 pm ET
Team Totals: Lakers 110.3, Nuggets 104.3
Injury News: Anthony Davis (ankle) is questionable (more below), Danny Green (finger) is probable, LeBron James (groin) is probable, Dion Waiters (groin) is questionable, and Will Barton and Vlatko Cancar remain out.
AD Injury Note: Coach Frank Vogel said AD is experiencing soreness on Friday, but he is “good to go” for this one. LeBron is also dealing with soreness from a knee to his thigh, but he’s also good to go.
Lakers Expected Starters: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Dwight Howard
Nuggets Expected Starters: Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Jerami Grant, Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic (note: Malone is stubborn on lineup changes, but there’s a good chance he starts Michael Porter Jr. over Harris.)
Lakers Rotation Notes: JaVale McGee still got a six-minute stint in the second quarter, Dwight saw some time in the second quarter (starting center usually doesn’t), KCP and Rajon Rondo picked up most of the closing minutes with Alex Caruso and Markieff Morris splitting the remaining ones (AD and LeBron out there, obviously), Danny Green subbed in a little later than usual in 2Q for the Dwight minutes.
Nuggets Rotation Notes: Gary Harris’ minutes were cut and he didn’t play in the fourth, Monte Morris played most of the final 16 minutes, Jamal Murray played the final 30, Grant had a 21-minute stint (including halftime), Millsap and Michael Porter Jr. had some overlap in the fourth (not in first three Q), four minutes of Mason Plumlee with Nikola Jokic in G4.
Vogel Quotes: He said that LeBron asked to guard Murray, and added “obviously I granted it.” Vogel said LeBron “did a great job down the stretch” on guarding Murray after “nothing was really working to slow him down.” He said the Lakers paid more attention on the glass, and they were more committed to crashing the boards while also driving hard to the paint on the offensive end. Vogel said AD’s start was “off the charts,” and he showed toughness to play through the ankle injury. Vogel said Dwight “obviously” helped with his energy, and he added the “team commitment” was much better throughout the game. He said the lineup change was “something that we could always go to” as they feel out a series. He said the Lakers wound up AD to crash more on the offensive glass.
Malone Quotes: He said the second-chance points factor was the main reason why his team lost. Malone said the Lakers were more physical and aggressive on the glass, and he mentioned that his team didn’t finish some defensive possessions. He said there were too many defensive breakdowns, and he said “if you can’t help us on the defensive end, then maybe you shouldn’t be on the floor.” He said Dwight Howard had a “tremendous impact on the game.” When asked about Jamal Murray, Malone said he’s “running the poor kid into the ground.” Malone added Murray needs to pass because he’s been such a focus for defenses, but he mentioned he knows he can do that. Malone said fatigue is not a concern for his guys, and that Murray is “one of the best-conditioned athletes I’ve ever been around.” Malone added Murray’s efficiency is a concern, but “he’s a tough kid and we’re going to continue to ride him.
Nuggets Notes
Malone also mentioned that he should go through the proper channels to get more free throws like the Lakers did (ICYMI, the Lakers did that after Game 3). Also, on the bold part above, he described a few plays where guys made mistakes. One play was for sure about Michael Porter Jr. not covering the weak side, another one was about Torrey Craig, and it sounded like he was talking about Craig and/or Harris for another one.
*LeBron guarding Murray worked great for the Lakers, keeping Murray to just 1-of-6 from the field for two points over a small sample of 16.2 partial possessions in this series. For Game 4, it accounted for a little more than half of that matchup time, keeping Murray to just 1-of-4 with two assists. It might be too much to ask for LeBron to lock down Murray, but as mentioned in the last matchups, Murray is just dumb hot in the fourth. I’m almost positive LeBron knew that because he’s a basketball genius, so expect a similar plan. Additionally, Murray was extra aggressive with 18 points on 22 drives in Game 4. That doubles the 11.0 drives per game he had in the first three (10.3 points).
*Besides that, there’s not much to say about Murray’s complete arsenal on O with this being the 19th time I’ve previewed his playoff game and mentioned how great he is. The Blue Arrow is already at 710 minutes in the postseason. Regardless of the results of this game and assuming he’s healthy, the 2019 playoffs had just six players top what Murray has done to this point, only four in 2018, and nobody in 2017. As mentioned, Malone doesn’t care. He’s looking at around 44 minutes. Maybe more.
*Big props to Dwight Howard, who has easily been the best big man guarding Jokic. He said he likes the Batman nickname because he’s against the Joker (miss you, Danny Granger). The stats really back that up, too. Check out Jokic’s per-36 stats when some opposing centers are on the floor with him:
Rudy Gobert: 26/8/5 (256 minutes)
Ivica Zubac: 21/12/6 (169)
Montrezl Harrell: 29/14/7 (72)
JaVale McGee: 24/10/8 (29)
Dwight Howard: 17/5/5 (60)
The Nuggets are also -26.4 in net rating when Joker and Batman are on the floor. It’s Jokic and we know he’s smashed in “bad” matchups before, but he’s going to need his A game.
*Going back to before the series started, Drew Dinkmeyer, Andrew Wiggins and I were all wondering how Gary Harris was going to fit in this series. I thought he was a bit of an odd fit with only really one ball-dominant perimeter player out there and we knew Jerami Grant was going to be on LeBron. He had to either become a better ball-handler, or stay hot as a shooter. Well, he’s at 28.6% on his wide-open treys in this series, he’s scored a grand total of four points off the dribble in this series, he has a 34.8 eFG% overall and he has just 2.3 potential assists per game. Meanwhile, Monte Morris is producing 4.5 potential assists per game in this series, he has an 85.7 eFG% on his wide-open shots, he has 18 points scored off the dribble and overall he has a 68.8 eFG%. Malone probably can’t start Morris against the big lineup, but he makes sense to see his minutes matched more with Rondo and/or Caruso. Also, Nikola Jokic talked about Monte consistently playing mistake-free basketball.
*Besides Monte coming for Harris’ minutes, he might also have to fend off MPJ. Yeah, yeah, there was one play Malone essentially called out MPJ for bad defense, but how many times has he done that? He’s called him out by name, and Malone has frequently talked about how MPJ’s defense has been improving through the bubble. Yes, we know LeBron will be licking his chops when MPJ is switched to him, but that’s basically true for anyone besides Grant. The Nuggets starters were actually playing well in the first three games of the series, putting up a +7.1 net rating over 50 minutes. However, Dwight Howard getting out there wrecked them in 10 minutes with a -37.6 net rating, and just a 29.4 rebounding percentage.
*We know Malone will always try to find minutes for Mason Plumlee, and now he has them with the Nuggets getting killed on the glass. It’s a bit of a galaxy-brain move to start him, and frankly Plumlee has just looked awful with countless mistakes. If he’s not starting to match minutes with Dwight, there’s really no reason to play him.
Lakers Notes
We knew all series the Nuggets wouldn’t have an answer for AD. They still don’t and that won’t change in this game. As mentioned above, Vogel mentioned he wanted him crashing the boards on offense, so it was really just bad luck on the D side. He only had 13 rebounding chances in 41 minutes — Dwight had 17 in just 23. AD’s rebounding has been down as a five in this series, but the offense is just too good. Fire him up again.
*LeBron didn’t really get aggressive in Game 4 as far as his shots from the field go, and he really struggled on the uncontested shots at 2-of-11 (5-of-7 contested). He went 5-of-7 at the rim, but he went 2-of-11 on the rest of his shots, and Vogel had mentioned he wants his players to be more aggressive — didn’t say LeBron by name, but can assume that. He only had eight drives for eight points after averaging 12.3 per game in the first three of this series. However, free-throw shooting saved the day. While he wasn’t “driving” on most of them, he was either trying to get down hill or was in/near the paint to draw all of his shooting fouls. They looked pretty legit for the most part with a couple tough calls on blocking fouls against Nuggets defenders. LeBron isn’t quite as unstoppable as AD, but of course he can dominate to close this out.
*As mentioned in the Jokic section above, Dwight has proved his value against Jokic. Vogel didn’t commit to start him, but he has to. We can pencil him in for 20ish minutes again, assuming no foul trouble.
*As mentioned in the last Matchups, KCP has earned more closing responsibilities, and that came to fruition with his series-high 34 minutes (shoutout to me?). He’s played great defense, and he’s even scored double-digit points for six straight. He continues to be a star in his role with a 70.3 eFG% on his 64 jumpers in the playoffs, including a 71.1 eFG% in this series.
Matchup Helps: Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Nikola Jokic, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Monte Morris
Matchup Hurts: JaVale McGee, Gary Harris, Torrey Craig, Mason Plumlee (assuming he’s not starting)
