For better or worse, HC Curtis Johnson and OC Eric Price return for their third season at the controls for the Houston Roughnecks, a perennial bottom feeder with a 6-14 record since 2023 and a -88 point differential. Despite some of their shortcomings, there are a few offensive bright spots worth highlighting as we turn the chapter to a new season.
As OC, Price has attempted to orchestrate a run-first offense, which he was able to do in 2023, posting a 53.9% situation-neutral pass rate and 50.9% True Pass Rate, well below the USFL league average (58.8%) that season. However, with a 1-9 record in 2024, that routinely resulted in negative game script early and often, Price was forced to abandon his run-heavy ways, posting the league’s second-highest overall pass rate (59.7%) last year. Based on their offseason personnel decisions, I suspect Price and Co. would like to get back to their run-heavy ways. But, save for an unexpected third-year leap for the Roughnecks, we’re once again looking at an offense that is going to be forced into more dropbacks as they struggle to keep pace with the rest of the teams in this league. While that may not translate to on-field success in the traditional sense, it does create fantasy opportunities that we can take advantage of.
Despite reports from camp that suggested QB Nolan Henderson was in the drivers seat for the team’s QB1 honors, HC Curtis Johnson announced Wednesday that QB Anthony Brown would get the nod in Week 1. Brown was signed by the Baltimore Ravens as a 2022 UDFA, where he saw plenty of NFL preseason reps, completing 67.3 of his passes for 8.0 YPA and a 5:3 TD:INT ratio, adding 25/141/1 on the ground. Johnson did also mention that the team has a package of plays in place for Henderson, who started two games for the Roughnecks in 2024 and flashed some rushing upside with a 23/143/1 line. We’re expecting to see plenty of both Brown and Henderson this season, but if either can separate and assert themselves as the team’s QB1, their rushing upside will keep them in play for DFS
An All-USFL selection in 2023, Justin Hall had an even more productive season in 2024 as one of the lone stars on an otherwise dismal Roughnecks offense. He racked up a 56/604/3 receiving line. Hall is an ultra-safe bet for fantasy production and still has access to a slate-winning ceiling on a weekly basis, running a route on 87.1% of dropbacks, 84.6% of which came out of the slot in 2024, where he led the team in target share (26.2%) on a PPR-friendly 5.7-yard aDOT. Joint practice reports also suggest Keke Chism will return to his rightful spot as one of the team’s top perimeter wide receivers after he ran a route on 78.7% of dropbacks last season, drawing a 17.7% target share and team-high 25.0% Air Yards share as Houston’s premier downfield threat. There is a far wider range of outcomes in Chism’s fantasy-point distribution, but when the price and ownership are right, he makes for an intriguing DFS option. Lawrence Keys III was listed as a starter on the team’s first official depth chart and will round out 3-WR sets. At 5’11”, 170-lbs, Keys profiles as a slot receiver, but we’re expecting him to run a majority of his routes from the perimeter, where he racked up a 63/895/9 receiving line in his final two collegiate season at Tulane. He’ll be on our fantasy radar as a tournament dart throw, assuming price and ownership are low.
Including Hall and Chism, RB/WR hybrid Kirk Merritt might be the player I’m most excited to see — and roster — from this Houston offense in 2025. Merritt’s 2024 campaign was cut short due to a dislocated wrist, but prior to that, the former New Orleans Saint looked like one of the league’s most explosive playmakers. As a rusher, he handled a meager 20.9% rush share, resulting in just three attempts per game, but he added an 18.8% target share, good for 5.3 targets per contest, running a route on 55.7% of dropbacks. If properly utilized as an offensive weapon, it’s reasonable to expect Merritt to earn 3-5 carries per game along with his 4-5 targets, making him a valuable commodity on a PPR-friendly site like DraftKings. Newcomer RB Lorenzo Lingard will likely get a bulk of the true “running back” work, handling a majority of the early-down and short-down-and-distance opportunities. Lindgard is a 6’0″, 205-lb back who profiles to fill the void left behind by T.J. Pleder and Mark Thompson‘s departures. He also went 37/356/2 as a receiver in his final 12 collegiate games at Akron and looks like an upgrade over both of Houston’s 2024 backs in that capacity.
