Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beaten at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
IMPORTANT: The lines for the bets you see below will almost certainly be gone. In order to get the lines as we release them, you must be subscribed to our Props Package and be connected to our subscriber-only Telegram channel.
Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 216-118: +$8,572
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 751-495, +$20,348
2022 NFL In-Season Record: 280-207, +$4,803 (through Week 17)
2022 NBA In-Season Record: 345-217, +$10,223 (through January 4)
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
1. Travis Etienne rushing yards
Line: 62.5 yards
Mean Projection: 81.1 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: January 5, 1:58pm ET
Notes: Tennessee has an elite run defense, but we account for that in our projections and still have ETN well over this number in a game where he should see 15-20 carries.
2. Darren Waller receiving yards
Line: 40.5 yards
Mean Projection: 37.8 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: January 6, 8:30am ET
Notes: Waller has been running hot on yards per target, and there is some potential for veteran rest with the Raiders playing for nothing.
3. Mac Jones passing yards
Line: 214.5 yards
Mean Projection: 236.4 yards yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: January 6, 5:27pm ET
Notes: This is a must-win game for New England as they take on the Bills — who also need to win. Buffalo’s offense should pressure the Patriots to score, which would lead to decent passing numbers from Jones.
4. Tyler Boyd receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.2 receptions
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+134)
Date: January 7, 11:04am ET
Notes: Boyd is 10-5 to the over on this line and we’re getting it at +134.
5. Deshaun Watson pass attempts
Line: 30.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 29.5 attempts
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: January 7, 11:59am ET
Notes: The Browns have leaned on the rushing attack when possible and this game could be a slog.
6. Joe Flacco passing yards
Line: 198.5 yards
Mean Projection: 236.3 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-113)
Date: January 7, 2:18pm ET
Notes: Jets QBs not named Zach Wilson have breezed by this number this year.
7. Mack Hollins receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.4 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+125)
Date: January 7, 3:24pm ET
Notes: Hollins has struggled to earn targets when all Raiders weapons are healthy.
8. Gus Edwards rushing yards
Line: 36.5 yards
Mean Projection: 42.2 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-120)
Date: January 7, 7:34pm ET
Notes: It makes sense for the Ravens to get Gus Edwards more involved here and ease off J.K. Dobbins slightly.
9. Latavius Murray rushing yards
Line: 49.5 yards
Mean Projection: 65.3 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: January 8, 8:45am ET
Notes: Latavius should handle the majority of carries for the Broncos in a game they are favored in against a soft LAC run D.
10. Aaron Jones carries
Line: 12.5 carries
Mean Projection: 13.9 carries
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-108)
Date: January 8, 10:15am ET
Notes: The Packers have to win this game, and Jones appears to be back to full (enough) health to take the lead.
11. DeVonta Smith receiving yards
Line: 52.5 yards
Mean Projection: 71.6 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: January 8, 10:29am ET
Notes: Even with some potential rest coming for Philly, the market has Smith 15 yards apart from A.J. Brown despite our projected gap of 3 — and we show a big over.
12. Drake London receiving yards
Line: 42.5 yards
Mean Projection: 55.8 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: January 8, 12:07pm ET
Notes: London has a 32% target share since Desmond Ridder took over, and he has hit this number in all three Ridder starts.
13. Jonathan Williams rushing yards
Line: 57.5 yards
Mean Projection: 54.4 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: January 8, 1:48pm ET
Notes: Williams is the presumed RB1 for Washington with Brian Robinson out, but they could mix in other backs and Williams is merely a career journeyman.
