2025 Pace Preview: Las Vegas Raiders

A fresh cast of characters takes the stage in Las Vegas this fall, and springtime fantasy drafters have yet to grasp its potential impact. Not only will the new Raiders crew raise the offense’s ceiling, but last year’s cratered-out floor gets lifted by the departure of Vegas’ coach and quarterbacking clownshow.

Perhaps drafters have been slow to react due to foggy memories of key tone setters moving to the desert, who appear poised to speed things up on offense.

Pete Carroll is often associated with a boomer-level affinity for teams anchored upon defense and handoffs — despite multiple up-tempo, no-huddle-heavy, throw-happy seasons to cap his coaching run in Seattle.

Geno Smith, whose reputation as a mostly statuesque pocket passer belies a quarterback who thrived with elevated pace during a career resurgence, blossomed under Carroll’s watch with a pair of Pro Bowl campaigns.

Most importantly, new Raiders OC and play-caller Chip Kelly will assume a vital supporting role. While many remember Kelly’s offense moving faster than a cheetah with an eight ball, it has more in common with the chameleon.

College football fans will recall Kelly’s national-champion Buckeyes moved glacially last season, ranking just 98th in plays per minute (2.2). It was a far cry from his 2023 UCLA offense, which finished 16th in the nation (2.5) — and significantly slower than Kelly’s past stops in Philadelphia, San Francisco, and at Oregon.

Before this slowdown is assumed to be Kelly’s new normal, it deserves some context.

Working under Ohio State HC Ryan Day, Kelly said they “knew it was going to be a long season and we were conscious of the amount of snaps you have”. With a dominant run-based team that led the country in per-game scoring margin (+22.8) and lost two contests by a combined four points, the plan as heavy favorites was to focus on the long haul. That lent itself to a subdued pace.

“You want to keep your guys fresh,” according to Kelly. “We talked about this maybe being a game of attrition.” Now, no one can argue with the results.

As odds-on last-place finishers in their division, the Raiders’ current situation is nothing like the Buckeyes’ preseason outlook a year ago. They are going to need to throw, they are going to need to play with pace, and they almost certainly are going to foster a more fantasy-friendly environment than in their recent past.

When Kelly was in Philadelphia, Eagles games ranked first, first, and fourth in combined offensive snaps due to a breakneck offensive pace. Their three-year no-huddle rate was 66.7% — which, for reference, is markedly higher than the Commanders’ league-lapping 62.5% clip from a season ago.

The Raiders don’t need to match that ludicrous level of speed to produce attractive fantasy targets relative to their current draft cost. Simply heading in a somewhat faster direction will yield more play volume. Over the last three years, Las Vegas ranked 27th in pace and 22nd in no-huddle rate during neutral situations, while producing the 26th-most offensive plays. It’s nearly impossible to find fantasy footing in that muck.

The general expectation is Las Vegas will deploy a run-based offense, as many of Kelly’s teams have skewed that direction. While this seems a safe bet, we should not ignore that Carroll’s Seahawks ranked fifth in situation-neutral pass rate when Smith was his quarterback from 2022 through 2023 — or that Kelly’s Eagles leapt from 27th in neutral pass rate when they had Michael Vick to 13th and 15th with Nick Foles and Sam Bradford. It plunged to 32nd the following year in San Francisco behind Colin Kaepernick. Kelly’s offenses have continually proven to be adaptable.