SHOWDOWN STRATEGY & TRENDS
Already six weeks into the 2020 season, it’s a perfect time to review contests through the first few weeks and identify where we have an edge and how we can improve our overall process. It’s important to keep in mind we’re still working with an extremely small sample. We recommend reviewing this article before building lineups. You’ll find our thoughts on proper captain selection, optimal roster construction and some ideas on how to ensure your lineups are unique. Like most DFS lineups, the best showdown lineups are created where uniqueness + optimal correlation + max projected points meet. Below you can review winning lineups to better familiarize yourself with optimal construction.
DST & Kickers
After being a major talking point in 2019, we’ve seen DSTs and kickers have mostly gone overlooked through Week 4. The average ownership for DSTs in 2019 was 20.69% at an average salary of $4100. A quarter of the way through the 2020 season and DST ownership has dropped to just 11.38% at an average salary of $3900. We know from the work Levitan did in the offseason, projecting DST fantasy scoring is not an easy task. If the field continues to underown defenses, there’s an edge in taking an overweight stance in large-field tournaments.
DraftKings finally priced up kickers following a full 2019 season where they consistently projected as the top PT/$ options on any given slate. Now averaging $4100 compared to $3700 in 2019, they no longer project as positive value plays on every slate and thus have carried lower ownership; 22.32% last season compared to just 15.72% through four weeks in 2020.
49.87% of the field used less than or equal to $49,500 when building lineups. The average number of duplicates per lineup for all lineups at or under $49,500 was 5.51 compared to 25.57 average duplicates for lineups that used greater than $49,500. In a format that rewards uniqueness, it’s important to consider the context of the slate and the size of the contest we’re playing if setting caps on total salary used. In some cases it’s acceptable to play lineups well below $49,500 in an attempt to be different.
Stars and Scrubs
A lot of showdown decision making revolves around whether we should be considering ‘punt’ plays paired with higher-priced players or a more balanced approach. Defined as all players priced $2000 and below, the field has been correct in their usage of ‘scrubs’ through three weeks as 40.96% of top 1% lineups used at least (1) such player compared to 38.3% of the total field. The stars and scrub approach is generally thought to bring with it a reduced amount of duplicates but that has not been the case this season. Top 1% lineups that rostered at least one sub-$2000 player were duplicated on average 26.01 times compared to 24.19 times for top 1% lineups that utilized a more balanced approach.
Historical Winning Lineups