Strength in Numbers: Actionable Week 16 Stats

We’re going to get a lot of stuff wrong, but sifting through usage metrics can help us work through what matters and what doesn’t. That’s the goal of this article: to break down the most actionable takeaways from each week in a concise, numbers-filled format and work through what’s important. Let’s get right to it:

1. Marquise Brown made his season debut and ran 15 routes on 46 dropbacks, but he earned targets at an incredibly high rate with eight targets (which he turned into five catches for 45 yards). Kansas City looks pretty committed to a WR rotation — DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t had higher than a 67% route rate yet with K.C. — and adding Brown to the equation muddies the whole situation even more. Brown is likely the second-best WR on the Chiefs’ roster right now but will likely be eased in, and it’s anyone’s guess as to whether they condense WR snaps more in the playoffs or continue a heavy rotation. It’s worth noting that Xavier Worthy has distanced himself routes-wise, as he ran a route on at least 79% of dropbacks for the third straight game.

2. Kareem Hunt out-carried Isiah Pacheco 11-9 on Sunday, meaning Pacheco has a 36-29 carries lead over the last three games. Like the WR rotation, K.C. seemingly has no intention of overloading Pacheco’s workload in the regular season. Perhaps he gets more on Christmas with the short rest and a lighter Week 16 workload.

3. John Metchie was out. Jared Wayne was a practice-squad call-up, and Tank Dell went down. That left Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson as every-down players near the end of the game with the Texans playing a lot of 3-WR sets in negative game script. Woods has generally been ahead of Hutchinson this year except for when Nico Collins was hurt (Hutchinson was the direct Nico backup), but it’s unclear how they will deploy their WRs on Wednesday. Woods out-routed Hutchinson 27-25 overall; if Metchie is out, both will play in 3-WR sets with Woods likely having a slight edge in 2-WR sets. If Metchie is in, he could regain his slot role and leave Woods/Hutchinson competing for one outside spot.

4. Justice Hill got concussed early last week. Derrick Henry ran 13 routes on 25 dropbacks, and Rasheen Ali played sparingly on early downs. Assuming Hill misses on the short week, the Ravens could either use Henry as an every-down back again (a scary thought during fantasy championship week) or use Keaton Mitchell (who has been a healthy inactive) in that role.

5. With Nelson Agholor out, WR3 Tylan Wallace ran six routes, while Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely ran 17 and 16 routes, respectively. Game script was ideal for 2-TE sets, but it’s still encouraging to see their usage uptick sans Agholor.