Some survivor pools, including the big one in Circa, have a holiday slate this week. Therefore, I’ve provided ownership projections for both the main slate and the Holiday Slate. Similar to two weeks ago when the Lions faced the Jaguars, the big decision here is do you take one of the most reliable teams in the league as massive chalk, or do you pivot? If you have a matchup question, I will check the survivor pool channel in the ETR Discord on Saturday and again on Sunday morning every week going forward.
Chiefs vs. Raiders (Black Friday)
Spread: Chiefs -12
Total: 42.5
Ownership: 48% (57% on holiday slates)
If you still have the Chiefs, chances are this is the spot you were saving them for, especially if your pool has a holiday slate. From a pure football standpoint, Kansas City is a beacon of reliability, where you could realistically call the Raiders the worst team in the league.
The downside is these are familiar division rivals and we saw the Raiders upset Kansas City on Christmas Day last year. Further, we just saw the Panthers give Kansas City a scare just last week. But, at the end of the day, if you still have Kansas City, you definitely need to use them, and if they lose in this spot, it is what it is. Leaning into game theory is really the only logical decision point if you’re going to continue to hold the Chiefs.
Looking forward, virtually every year there is at least one extreme wind game in Cleveland, so that’s a variable that makes that Week 15 matchup less attractive, to the point I have personally crossed it off. You could also use the Chiefs against the Steelers for the Christmas slate if your pool requires a pick on that slate, but this is clearly a better matchup than Pittsburgh for Kansas City.
Best Remaining Matchups: Week 15 at CLE
Lions vs. Bears (Thanksgiving)
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