UFL GPP Breakdown: Week 5

Welcome back, spring football diehards, to the fifth edition of the UFL GPP Breakdown. Each week, we’ll examine the slate through a GPP lens, discussing both macro- and micro-level angles I’m exploring in tournaments on DraftKings. I’ll share my thoughts on roster construction, ownership, and slate-specific nuances that are ever evolving in the wild, wild west of UFL DFS. We’ve already covered some of the basics to being successful in UFL GPPs like late swap and rules to consider in optimizers. Last week, we took a closer look at some of the slate’s bigger decision points on a micro level and tried to identify where our opponents may be overconfident in a player’s ability to hit winning lineups or are unwilling to take on the risk necessary to climb GPP leaderboards. That exercise helped me work through some of my highest leveraged positions on last week’s slate — and hopefully provided some useful insight for you too — so we’re going to bring it back for Week 5.

If you missed this graphic last week, we affectionately refer to it as our Coffin & 3.9 List in the golf streets, where we compare how often a player is finding their way into our top 1,000 optimal lineups — with variance applied — to how often we expect them to be rostered in order to quickly identify which players might be undervalued or overvalued in tournaments. Keep in mind, just because a player is projected to be owned more often than they’re appearing in our optimal lineups does not indicate that they’re a bad GPP play in a vacuum.