Thorn: Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches, Week 8

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 8. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

Week 8 Bye Week: Cardinals, Jaguars, Raiders, Lions, Rams, Seahawks

DL Rankings – Week 8

1. Texans
2. Broncos
3. Rams
4. Seahawks
5. Giants
6. Browns
7. Steelers
8. Lions
9. Packers – Lukas Van Ness missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a foot injury.
10. Vikings
11. Chiefs
12. Eagles – Edge rusher Nolan Smith was placed on short-term injured reserve, keeping him out until at least Week 8.
13. Colts
14. Jets
15. Jaguars
16. Bills
17. Patriots
18. Cardinals
19. 49ers
20. Falcons
21. Chargers
22. Dolphins
23. Saints
24. Cowboys
25. Bucs – DT Vita Vea missed practice on Thursday with a foot injury. Edge rusher Haason Reddick missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with ankle and knee injuries.
26. Bears
27. Titans – DT Jeffery Simmons missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a hamstring injury.
28. Bengals
29. Commanders
30. Raiders
31. Ravens
32. Panthers

OL Rankings – Week 8

1. Eagles – C Cam Jurgens missed practice Wednesday and Thursday with a knee injury.
2. Bills
3. Lions
4. Colts
5. Broncos – LG Ben Powers is on short-term injured reserve due to a biceps injury that is expected to keep him out until at least Week 10 or 11.
6. Commanders
7. Rams
8. Bears
9. Steelers
10. Falcons
11. Vikings – C Ryan Kelly (concussion) is on short-term injured reserve until at least Week 10.
12. Chiefs – LT Josh Simmons is absent from the team due to an undisclosed reason with an unknown return date. RG Trey Smith missed practice on Thursday due to back spasms.
13. Jets
14. Packers
15. Seahawks
16. Bucs – Luke Goedeke suffered a foot injury that landed him on short-term injured reserve until at least Week 7. RG Cody Mauch suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 2.
17. Patriots
18. Panthers – RG Robert Hunt went down in Week 2 with a season-ending torn biceps injury.
19. 49ers
20. Cowboys
21. Jaguars
22. Ravens
23. Cardinals
24. Saints – C Erik McCoy tore his bicep in Week 7 and is out for the season.
25. Chargers – RT Trey Pipkins missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday after sitting out Week 6.
26. Giants
27. Titans
28. Browns
29. Dolphins – RG James Daniels and RT Austin Jackson are eligible to return from short-term I.R. but are not expected to return this week.
30. Bengals
31. Raiders – LT Kolton Miller was placed on short-term injured reserve after Week 4 and won’t return until at least Week 9.
32. Texans

Biggest Week 8 DL > OL Mismatches

1. Broncos DL (2nd) > Cowboys OL (20th)
2. Jets DL (14th) > Bengals OL (30th)
3. Colts DL (13th) > Titans OL (27th)
4. Eagles DL (12th) > Giants OL (26th)
5. Browns DL (6th) > Patriots OL (17th)

Biggest Week 8 OL > DL Mismatches

1. Bills OL (2nd) > Panthers DL (32nd)

DL > OL

1. Broncos DL > Cowboys OL

Key matchups: Edge rushers Nik Bonitto and Jonathan Cooper vs. OTs Tyler Guyton and Terence Steele, DTs Zach Allen and John Franklin-Myers vs. C Cooper Beebe/Brock Hoffman and RG Tyler Booker

Notes: The Broncos’ DL ranks eighth in pass-rush win rate, second in pressure percentage, and first in sacks per pass attempt. The Cowboys’ OL ranks third in pass-block win rate, ninth in pressure percentage given up, and 30th in QB hurries given up. C Cooper Beebe was activated off injured reserve, practiced in a limited fashion, and could play this week.

Denver’s defensive line remains an elite unit with big-time one-on-one winners across the front and an aggressive, dynamic pressure package to accentuate the personnel. The Cowboys’ line has been relatively successful in pass protection this year partly due to elite LG Tyler Smith and standout rookie RG Tyler Booker leading the way but primarily due to outside factors, such as QB Dak Prescott operating at an elite level, extensive play-action, and a potent run game that have combined to help mitigate quick losses by the blockers. The Broncos have a good enough front to rack up clean wins and also a good enough back seven and coverage unit to make those matter more than they have so far for previous Cowboys opponents this season.