Large-Field GPP Breakdown: Genesis Scottish Open

I had a really promising start at the John Deere last week, but it did not end positively in classic. However, it did end positively for Discord legend and bad joke enthusiast LSahr, who notched a second-place finish in the Sand Trap after winning it all a month or so ago. While there were other screenshots in Discord as well, grabbing two top finishes in the Sand Trap in such a short time is something only some can achieve. Shout-out to all the winners last week, and I am glad that we continue to see success in this still relatively niche DFS sport. 

John Deere Classic – Recap

The John Deere will always be a tournament that almost feels misplaced in the middle of the year, as TPC Deere Run is an extremely easy course that often does not attract the best in the game because of its proximity to the quick Europe run that takes place directly after. Birdie fests are not always my favorite type of tournaments, but there is money to be made. Looking at the tournament, I was done in last week by not having the right combinations, specifically because two of my highest-owned players, Andrew Novak and Daniel Berger, both missed the cut. Despite great projections, this was another week when the lower-priced chalk failed for the most part. Let’s take a look at the winning lineup in the lotto:

• It went with an interesting 10/8/7/7/7/6 build that left $2K on the table. If I were LSahr, I’d honestly be a little bit pissed off that this lineup ran into a Zach Johnson T10 combined with T12 or better finishes from all these $8K and under players to beat him. This lineup was not a good lineup, and sometimes the fish gotta eat.
• The lineup somehow still came in with 76% cumulative ownership, within the 60-80% range we normally target, but obviously with the caveat that this lineup left $2K on the table. Just an absolutely weird way to play a lineup in your MME set (this player had at least 40 lineups). Leaving $2K on the table essentially means this guy was betting on Zach Johnson to outscore players in the high $8K range. Yuck.

In terms of my takeaways from the John Deere, I have to continue to remind myself that projections are quite fragile, especially in the $7K range. When you have a tournament like the John Deere that leans into variability, I really shouldn’t be playing 30+% of Novak and Berger in my MME sets. This is where I maybe should have expanded my player pool a bit more in the $7K range, relied on my roster construction differences up top, and just mixed and matched down low, hoping to hit the right combination. Hindsight is 20/20, but the defining moment of my week was hammering the 8.0 value in Novak.

Scottish Open – Preview

We head over to Scotland for a VERY different style of golf and environment for a battle at the Scottish Open. This tournament will be the first time we see PGA and LIV players together outside of a major, as this is the only PGA/DPWT co-sanctioned event of the PGA regular season. Because of the uncertainty around LIV, we now get to see 5-6 legit players play this DPWT event without any consequences from the PGA. What an interesting week that will create. This also just bolsters the field, creating one of the better ones we’ve seen outside of Signature Events and majors this year.

In terms of the course, The Renaissance Club has hosted this event since 2019. Despite some annoyance by die-hard golf fans that Renaissance is not a real “links style” event, this will still represent a very different style of play for the players who play on the PGA Tour for the majority of the year. Here are the past five winners:

• 2025: Chris Gotterup (-15) def. Rory McIlroy and Marco Penge by two strokes

• 2024: Robert Macintyre (-18) def. Adam Scott by one stroke

• 2023: Rory McIlroy (-15) def. Robert MacIntyre by one stroke

• 2022: Xander Schauffele (-7) def. Kurt Kitayama by one stroke

• 2021: Min Woo Lee (-18) def. Thomas Detry and Matt Fitzpatrick in a playoff

The narratives have been quite interesting about The Renaissance Club over the years. Last year, there was a clear bomber narrative with Gotterup beating Rory and Penge by two strokes to win it. The top 10 was littered with players known for their driving distance. However, it’s important to remember that the past couple of years have had a bunch of rain leading up to the event. McKinley has often said that softer courses tend to favor bombers who don’t need the benefit of firm bounces on the fairways to drive the ball far. From what I understand, there hasn’t been much rain so far leading up to the event. Instead, there is a clear potential wind narrative that Sam mentioned in Discord, and we will have to monitor wind impact on projections leading into tonight’s lock. And YES, lock is tonight, folks. Don’t forget.

When thinking about cumulative ownership, I’ll be targeting that normal 60-80% range as I typically do for full-field events with a cut. There are definitely going to be places where ownership condenses amongst the field, so it could get very easy to reach these ownership numbers this week versus weeks where the field ownership is quite spread out. I love these kinds of weeks because even basic rules should help give me leverage on the field.

Figuring out what the build will be this week will be interesting, and I do think there will be some type of weather impact on the field’s preferences. As of today, it looks like the field does not want to have anything to do with the high-priced players in Scottie Scheffler/Rory McIlroy/Jon Rahm, instead choosing to go with builds centered around two $9K players. 9/9/8/8/7/7 could be the most common build this week, or at least 9/9/8/7/7/7. It seems as if the field will try and do everything they can to avoid the $6K players, who are honestly quite weak, and I can’t say I blame them. There are ways we can get different here, but it will be extremely important to manage our starts appropriately.

Expected Chalk, How to Play It