Welcome to The Rundown: Week 3. Each week, we will be compiling some of our favorite and most actionable takes from the ETR team and organizing them on this page game by game. We’ll also provide some additional stats and notes to help make those crucial decisions when building and setting your lineups on Sunday mornings. Please note that all betting information is sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook. If you’re betting sides and totals, always be sure to line shop first and utilize ETR’s various sportsbook bonus offers.
|Kickoff||O/U||Game||Forecast||GPP (DK)||GPP (FD)|
|Thu @ 8:15 PM||PIT||30.5||NE (+6) @ PIT||39 °F, Partly Cloudy|
|Sun @ 1:00 PM||ATL||39.5||TB (+2.5) @ ATL||INDOORS||0.8||-0.5|
|Sun @ 1:00 PM||CHI||43.5||DET (-3.5) @ CHI||40 °F, Chance Rain||-2.2||-2.0|
|Sun @ 1:00 PM||CIN||43.5||IND (-1) @ CIN||47 °F, Likely Rain Showers||1.8||0.3|
|Sun @ 1:00 PM||CLE||30.5||JAX (+3) @ CLE||50 °F, Likely Rain||0.0||-0.7|
|Sun @ 1:00 PM||NO||37.5||CAR (+5) @ NO||INDOORS||-2.9||-1.9|
|Sun @ 1:00 PM||NYJ||32.5||HOU (-4.5) @ NYJ||56 °F, Chance Rain||-1.6||-2.7|
|Sun @ 1:00 PM||BAL||40.5||LAR (+7) @ BAL||60 °F, Definite Rain Showers||-0.9||-1.1|
|Sun @ 4:05 PM||LV||40.5||MIN (-3) @ LV||INDOORS||2.0||2.0|
|Sun @ 4:05 PM||SF||46.5||SEA (+10.5) @ SF||60 °F, Patchy Fog||3.9||3.3|
|Sun @ 4:25 PM||KC||48.5||BUF (+1.5) @ KC||39 °F, Partly Cloudy||-0.7||1.0|
|Sun @ 4:25 PM||LAC||43.5||DEN (+3) @ LAC||INDOORS||-0.1||2.3|
|Sun @ 8:20 PM||DAL||51.5||PHI (+3.5) @ DAL||INDOORS|
|Mon @ 8:15 PM||MIA||46.5||TEN (+13) @ MIA||71 °F, Slight Chance Rain Showers|
|Mon @ 8:15 PM||NYG||36.5||GB (-6.5) @ NYG|
Titans at Browns, 1 p.m. EST
- Snaps and Pace: Pat Thorman called this game a slow-paced slog. The only thing the Titans do to speed up a game is entice opponents to throw as a path of least resistance. Titans contests already produce the third-fewest combined plays per game (120.5) and a meager 40.5 average total points. No matter the Browns’ offensive approach, their defense should continue to thrive. Ranked second in EPA allowed and grading third best by PFF, it’s allowed the fifth-fewest points and second-fewest yards on a per-snap basis. Cleveland’s contests average the fourth-fewest total points (37.5) — and that includes a pair of defensive touchdowns.
- OL vs. DL: Brandon Thorn listed the Browns’ DL (8th) > the Titans’ OL (32nd) as the week’s third-biggest mismatch. Both Andre Dillard and right tackle Chris Hubbard will require help on basically every true drop-back rep against Myles Garrett, which still may not be enough to totally shut Garrett down, freeing up plenty of opportunities for Za’Darius Smith, Shelby Harris, and defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz’s aggressive scheme to capitalize on personnel advantages across the line of scrimmage.
- Buy Leone: Amari Cooper ($5,700 DK, 1.2 PPG underperformance) appears in this week’s model.
- Cheap WRs: Gary Hartman listed Elijah Moore ($4,700 DK) as a strong DraftKings-only play. Moore has a great matchup, a 22% target share on the season, and projects for 6.2 targets.
Silva’s Matchups Takes:
- “Cleveland has knocked down the opposing QB on 23% of dropbacks, by far the best mark in the NFL…I’m fading Ryan Tannehill and dialing up the Browns’ D/ST.”
- “Derrick Henry’s workload projection is massive so long as this game stays close…even in a rough offensive environment, Henry is a locked-in RB1 starter.”
- “DeAndre Hopkins (ankle) figures to be closer to 100% at Cleveland. The Browns have played tight coverage to date…I’m approaching Hopkins as a fringe WR2/3 here.”
- “Treylon Burks’ target counts remain underwhelming enough that he profiles as a boom-bust WR3.”
- “I’m valuing Chig Okonkwo as an upside TE2 moving forward. He’s playing a robust 76% of Tennessee’s offensive snaps.”
- “Deshaun Watson gets a right-the-ship opportunity at home versus Tennessee’s pass-funnel defense…HC Kevin Stefanski may also force more onto Watson’s plate following Nick Chubb’s (knee) year-ending loss.”
- “Box-score expectations need to be checked against Tennessee’s suffocating front, but Jerome Ford offers league-winning potential.”
- “Amari Cooper was Watson’s go-to guy late last year and has remained so in 2023. In addition to targets, Amari leads Cleveland in Air Yards share (34%).”
- “Through two games with Cleveland, gadget type Elijah Moore has 103 scoreless yards on nine touches. He’s a Curtis Samuel-level player.”
Falcons at Lions, 1 p.m. EST
- Snaps and Pace: Pat Thorman called this game a slow-paced slog. Through two weeks, Falcons games average the fifth-fewest combined plays (122.5). They produced 122.2 last year (26th). The Lions were eighth in pace last year and are 17th so far in 2023. They’ll have to ignite the tempo if this matchup is to offer the requisite volume for the multitude of fantasy weapons that will be in lineups.
- OL vs. DL: Brandon Thorn didn’t see a notable mismatch in this game. The Falcons’ DL (13th) will face off against the Lions’ OL (second) in a matchup of strength vs. strength.
- Buy Leone: Kye Pitts ($3,900 DK, 2.2 PPG underperformance), Drake London ($5,000 DK, 1.0 PPG underperformance), and Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,600 DK, 1.2 PPG underperformance) all appear in this week’s model.
- Levitan’s Context: Adam wrote that while $3,900 is a bit too rich for Pitts, we at least know he gets 1-2 chances per game to make a big play. He added that while Gibbs certainly gets a boost with David Montgomery (quad) out, Craig Reynolds is still likely to get plenty of base work.
- Cheap WRs: Gary Hartman listed Josh Reynolds ($4,200 DK) as a strong DraftKings-only play. DK did not price Detroit’s WR2 up enough, so it’s possible Reynolds is super chalky on DraftKings, but he’s in play regardless and projects for 5.5 targets.
Silva’s Matchups Takes:
- “Desmond Ridder is a poor fantasy bet even in two-QB leagues with Taylor Heinicke soon breathing down his neck.”
- “Tyler Allgeier is fully flex playable after banking touch counts of 18 and 16 in Atlanta’s initial two games.”
- “I’m becoming convinced that HC Arthur Smith simply doesn’t believe in Kyle Pitts.”
- “In such a run-dominant offense, Drake London is just a WR3/flex.”
- “Craig Reynolds is worth adding in deeper season-long leagues, but Jahmyr Gibbs now offers eruption potential on expanded usage.”
- “Jared Goff is averaging 2.2 touchdown passes per game at Ford Field versus 0.9 touchdowns in away games since joining the Lions. Goff is comfortably at home in this one.”
- “Josh Reynolds leads Detroit in Air Yards share (32%), has history with Goff from their time with the Rams, and has earned serious WR3 consideration in potentially high-scoring environments like this.”
- “With five receptions in each of his first two NFL games, Sam LaPorta is already a borderline TE1/2.”
Saints at Packers, 1 p.m. EST
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