The Rundown: Week 6

 

Welcome to The Rundown: Week 6. Each week, we will be compiling some of our favorite and most actionable takes from the ETR team and organizing them on this page game by game. We’ll also provide some additional stats and notes to help make those crucial decisions when building and setting your lineups on Sunday mornings. Please note that all betting information is sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook. If you’re betting sides and totals, always be sure to line shop first and utilize ETR’s various sportsbook bonus offers.

 

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Commanders @ Falcons, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)

 

• Snaps and Pace: Pat Thorman noted that if we’re looking for a matchup that could have some sneaky pace, the Commanders-Falcons game fits the bill. Entering Week 4, Commanders contests averaged the fourth-fewest combined snaps (122.3). Since then, they’ve averaged 135.5, which would rank second on the season. Washington’s games also produce the seventh-most total points. The Falcons at least average a middling 9.7 play-clock seconds (21st) and just had the ninth most of Week 5 (10.6). They operate at the 16th-fastest pace, and their games average the 21st-most combined plays. It’s not an ideal environment, but it’s possible they’re pushed into a fantasy-friendly affair.
• OL vs DL: Brandon Thorn listed the Commanders’ DL (8th) > the Falcons’ OL (19th) as the week’s fourth-biggest mismatch. The Commanders’ DL ranks 26th in pass-rush win rate, eighth in pressure percentage, and sixth in sacks per pass attempt. The Falcons’ OL ranks 26th in pass-block win rate, 21st in pressure percentage given up, and 26th in sacks per pass attempt given up. Washington’s front is uniquely equipped to give this Atlanta line problems in the passing game. The key will be if their shaky run defense can play at an even mediocre level against a slightly below-average run game to help open up those opportunities.
• Cheap WRs: Gary Hartman listed Jahan Dotson ($4,700 DK, $5,700 FD) as a great play on both sites. Dotson leads all Commanders skill-position players in snap share (83%) and projects for 6.0 targets this week. Gary also listed Drake London ($4,800 DK) as a strong DraftKings-only play. London gets a fantastic spot this week against a Commanders team that has been gashed by opposing WR1s this season. London leads the Falcons in target share at 21% and projects for 5.8 targets this week.
• Buy Leone: Jahan Dotson ($4,700 DK, 1.6 PPG underperformance), Drake London ($4,800 DK, 0.8 PPG underperformance), and Brian Robinson ($5,700 DK, 2.3 PPG underperformance — third highest among all RBs) all appear in this week’s model.
• DFS Top Plays: The ETR team listed Kyle Pitts ($3,500 DK) as the third-best TE play on DraftKings this week. The hotly debated tight end put up his most productive game of the season last week with a 7/87/0 line on a respectable 10 targets (27% share). He gets a strong matchup this week with a Commanders team that has been gashed through the air this season.

 

Silva’s Matchups Takes:

• “The Commanders present an ongoing attack target for enemy D/STs…I’m also willing to stream Sam Howell as a bye-week fill-in QB1.”
• “Brian Robinson has earned RB2/flex treatment. Antonio Gibson is not a viable play.”
• “Terry McLaurin’s target share (17%) has largely underwhelmed, and he is the Commanders’ likeliest candidate for Falcons top CB A.J. Terrell’s shadow coverage.”
• “The Falcons have held opposing wideouts to the NFL’s fourth-fewest yards (605). Jahan Dotson profiles as a low-floor, low-ceiling WR4 option…I prefer Curtis Samuel’s floor to Dotson’s at this point.”
• “Logan Thomas is a locked-in TE1 at the weakest position in fantasy football. The Falcons have permitted the NFL’s second-most catches (35) and fifth-most yards (313) to tight ends.”
• “Fifth in the NFL in sacks (16), Washington’s D/ST is playable here.”
• “Behind Atlanta’s lane-paving offensive line, Bijan Robinson remains an elite RB1 play. Tyler Allgeier is a justifiable bye-week flex.”
• “I’d rather try selling Kyle Pitts than riding him; he was still out-snapped by Jonnu Smith.”
• “Drake London’s matchup is pristine; his usage is never reliable.”

 

 

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Vikings @ Bears, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)

 

• OL vs DL: The Vikings’ OL ranks 10th in Brandon Thorn’s Week 6 rankings, while the Bears (OL 30th; DL 32nd) are weak on both sides of the ball.
• Cheap WRs: Gary Hartman listed K.J. Osborn ($4,400 DK) as a strong DraftKings-only play. Osborn is likely to be very chalky in the Vikings’ first game without Justin Jefferson, but he’s simply too cheap and projects for 6.5 targets.
• Buy Leone: K.J. Osborn ($4,400 DK, 2.1 PPG underperformance — fifth highest among all WRs), T.J. Hockenson ($6,600 DK, 2.0 PPG underperformance — third highest among all TEs), and Jordan Addison ($5,700 DK, 1.0 PPG underperformance) all appear in this week’s model. Adam pointed out in his context write-up that, of course, the model doesn’t even know that Justin Jefferson (hamstring) is out, and yet it’s littered with Vikings pass catchers this week.

 

Silva’s Matchups Takes:

• “Sunday’s matchup is too favorable to throw Alexander Mattison away, but his usage is (deservedly) in decline. He’s an RB2/flex option. Cam Akers remains a stash.”
• “Including playoffs, T.J. Hockenson’s average receiving line is 6.7/63.8/0.3 on 8.3 targets over his last six games as a Viking. The Bears have surrendered the NFL’s fourth-most catches (34) and 10th-most yards to tight ends (282).”
• “Jordan Addison is a rest-of-year eruption candidate…Justin Jefferson’s absence renders Addison a WR2 with sneaky WR1 upside.”
• “K.J. Osborn warrants WR3/flex valuation. Osborn is a plus athlete who will rarely exit the field, technically stepping into Jefferson’s X role.”
• “Justin Fields has been fantasy’s QB2 over the past two weeks…Despite his slow start, he’s a top-five QB1 starter each week.”
• “Through his first five games as a Bear, D.J. Moore has topped 100 yards three times while hitting paydirt on five occasions and parlaying 78% of his catches into first downs. No NFL defense has yielded more yards to wide receivers than Minnesota (1,048).”
• “Cole Kmet has 10 TDs over his last 15 games, yet he’s averaging 41.8 yards during that span. He’s a touchdown-or-bust TE1.”

 

 

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Seahawks @ Bengals, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)