We’re back with the third edition! I had some feedback that some people want me to be a little clearer on who is affected more by the matchup, so I added a “Matchup Helps” and “Matchup Hurts” section to each game. NBA is a little more on the fly and you don’t have as much time to digest the info, so I hope this helps everyone in their process. Keep in mind, this has nothing to do with his price on the sites; it’s strictly based on how this matchup affects players compared to facing other teams in general. It also doesn’t have to do with the who’s in, who’s out factors to a degree.
Miami Heat (104.5) vs. Denver Nuggets (106)
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Heat 23rd, Nuggets 27th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Heat 25th, Nuggets 22nd
Orlando scrimmages overall pace (of 22): Heat 13th, Nuggets 17th
Heat expected starters: Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Meyers Leonard
Nuggets expected starters: Jamal Murray (Q), Torrey Craig, Michael Porter Jr., Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic (Note: very possible Jerami Grant starts over MPJ)
Injury news: Gary Harris (hip) is out, Will Barton (knee) is out, Jamal Murray (hamstring tightness) is questionable, and no injuries on the Heat report.
Heat rotation notes: Bam said he might need one more game to get back to 100% after his 25 minutes in the third scrimmage, Spo has hinted that he might play the matchups with his starting five (Leonard and Derrick Jones Jr. next to Bam up front, would think it’s Meyers today), Kelly Olynyk was not in the mix early in scrimmage with Bam, Dragic was first sub in both games with Nunn available.
Nuggets rotation notes: Basically a shrug emoji here, Malone said he is not concerned with seed, said he will formulate a rotation on Friday, first scrimmage he famously started Nikola Jokic, Jerami Grant, Paul Millsap, Bol Bol and Mason Plumlee, maybe he starts Jokic again at PG without Jamal, Monte Morris did not scrimmage after COVID-19 (no symptoms), P.J. Dozier had a late arrival to the bubble and gained 15 pounds.
The Nuggets are almost certainly going to have to start their best perimeter defender, Torrey Craig, and Malone is likely going to keep him on Butler for as long as he can. That could potentially be a tough matchup for Jimmy, but potentially a very unfamiliar lineup could create some really horrible defensive possessions. The Nuggets have typically been a good spot for bigs, but we really won’t have any data on whatever wild lineup Malone is going to throw out there. Still, Bam is so skilled in so many areas, he can overcome a bigger lineup that can’t keep up with his quickness at his size anyway.
Bad matchup and dumb comments aside, you pretty much have to play Michael Porter Jr. today. No team allowed fewer drives per game than the Heat, so their perimeter scoring is likely going to be absent even if Murray goes. It’s going to be all Jokic, all the time, so there should be a big opportunity to produce stats in a high-volume, potentially lower-efficient fashion.
Matchup Helps: Duncan Robinson, Bam Adebayo, Kelly Olynyk, Torrey Craig (minutes play)
Matchup Hurts: Denver guards, Tyler Herro and/or Kendrick Nunn, Derrick Jones Jr.
Utah Jazz (105) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (106.5)
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Jazz 24th, Thunder 16th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Jazz 1tth, Thunder 29th
Orlando scrimmages overall pace (of 22): Jazz 20th, Thunder 12th
Jazz expected starters: Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, Royce O’Neale, Rudy Gobert
Thunder expected starters: Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams
Injury news: No injuries reported
Jazz rotation notes: Air-tight rotation in the scrimmages and again in the first game, Mudiay was horrendous on Thursday, no Gobert-Bradley overlap on Thursday after some in scrimmages, all five starters and Clarkson should see 30-plus minutes again.
Thunder rotation notes: Schroder will be first sub unless foul trouble, Schroder with the starters (for Dort) is the best lineup in the NBA (min. 100 minutes), Noel was banged up in the scrimmages.
The Jazz offense looked great for the most part on Thursday and it had a lot to do with the matchup, but overall their guards really did heavy lifting on getting the offense going. They had three guards with 15-plus drives (Conley, Donny, Clarkson; only 13 players averaged 15 drives per game), and things will be much tougher for them in this one. Still, the big takeaway on Conley driving 19 times is that he was at his best when he was a drive machine when he was with the Grizzlies. He certainly looked like the Conley of old, but keep in mind he did hang a 1-of-16 against OKC back in October (only matchup). The Jazz were trying to set up Gobert a bit more with Gobert having five shots off Mitchell passes on Thursday (1.4 average on year). Gobert has actually fared pretty well against Adams recently (especially last year’s 21-14 per-36 line over 127 minutes), and the Jazz may have to get him to roll more to help open things up for their shooters. Joe Ingles is really going to have to produce on 3-pointers because he’s not really going to be able to move Dort around at all. Clarkson really looked the part on Thursday and you basically have to play him with some potentially weaker second-unit defenders on him for most of his minutes. He’s too cheap.
OKC perimeter guys could get off to a really strong start here after some of the Utah guards weren’t really the best at defending in the opener. SGA is crafty enough to score around Gobert and a potential matchup against Mitchell could really get in him a big spot. Gallo is likely going to see a decent amount on Royce O’Neale, who matches up with him pretty well as someone who can recover on Gallo’s one-dribble drives.
Matchup Helps: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chris Paul, Dennis Schroder, Jordan Clarkson
Matchup Hurts: Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley, Steven Adams
New Orleans Pelicans (110.3) vs. LA Clippers (115.3)
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Pelicans 3rd, Clippers 5th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Pelicans 12th, Clippers 19th
Orlando scrimmages overall pace (of 22): Pelicans 13th, Clippers 21st
Pelicans expected starters: Lonzo Ball, Jrue Holiday, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, Derrick Favors
Clippers expected starters: Patrick Beverley, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris, Ivica Zubac
Injury news: Montrezl Harrell (personal) is out, Lou Williams (chicken wings) is out, Amir Coffey (hip) is questionable and Zion Williamson will have a minutes limit on him.
Pelicans rotation notes: Zion will have limits in this one and one more, Nicolo Melli played all PF, Gentry really mixed it up on Thursday (no lineup more than seven minutes), Redick more of a backup to Lonzo than the other perimeter guys, Favors hit the 28-minute mark for the second time since Jan. 27, Jrue played the full 12 in the fourth (Lonzo and Ingram 8.7).
Clippers rotation notes: Zubac foul trouble in two minutes on Thursday (said he’s not in shape yet), nine of Noah’s 10 minutes came in the first (after Zu foul trouble), JaMychal Green played 21 minutes at center (Pat Patterson with him for 14), foul trouble derailed Marcus Morris on Thursday, Shamet’s 22 minutes were a surprise after Rivers was concerned with conditioning, Rivers was upset with turnovers after the game (Jackson had four, PG five).
Patrick Beverley didn’t quite look right and wasn’t nearly as aggressive on the defensive side, so this may not be a tougher matchup for Lonzo. After Ingram torched the Jazz for the fourth time, he gets a matchup against Kawhi. Pass on that one. The Clippers have been good on interior defense overall, but they just were overmatched and out of position down low. Derrick Favors getting up to the 28-minute mark could happen again with Zion limited, and he could really feast against Zu and an undersized J-Myke. Jrue should see a decent amount of PG on him, which also doesn’t bode well.
As alluded to in the Jazz section, the Pelicans are horrible at defending drivers, and Kawhi is expected to be ultra-aggressive in this one. He had 20 drives against a great Lakers defense and struggled big time on those (28.6 FG%), so stylistically he could really crush. PG-13 has been outstanding when he’s not next to Lou, and that showed again on Thursday. He’s clearly over his shoulder injury, and these two teams like to play fast on offense. The Clippers can certainly get away with going with J-Myke at the five, and his minutes may be up a tad more as the Pelicans really try to limit the Clippers from getting their defense set to put PG and Kawhi on their scoring options.
Matchup Helps: Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Derrick Favors, Marcus Morris, Lonzo Ball
Matchup Hurts: Jrue Holiday, Brandon Ingram
Philadelphia 76ers (109) vs. Indiana Pacers (104)
Offensive pace on season (of 30): 76ers 26th, Pacers 20th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): 76ers 9th, Pacers 26th
Orlando scrimmages overall pace (of 22): 76ers 9th, Pacers 6th
76ers expected starters: Shake Milton, Josh Richardson, Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid
Pacers expected starters: Malcolm Brogdon (Q), Victor Oladipo (Q), Aaron Holiday, T.J. Warren, Myles Turner
Injury news: Malcolm Brogdon (neck) is questionable, Goga Bitadze (knee) is questionable, Victor Oladipo (rehab) could choose to not play, Raul Neto (back) is probable and Glenn Robinson III (hip) is doubtful.
76ers rotation notes: Shake will bring the ball up after makes, Ben will bring it up a bunch after misses and will still facilitate the offense, Shake and Embiid likely to sub out near each other, Furkan Korkmaz was bad in the scrimmages, Brown said he wants to play, Kork, Matisse Thybulle, Tobias and Al Horford together,
Pacers rotation notes: Brogdon being questionable would likely put T.J. McConnell and Aaron Holiday as main ball-handlers, McMillan had suggested he didn’t want his guys to play more than 7-8 minute stints (more below), JaKarr Sampson has been the backup five, McMillan has mentioned he wanted to use Turner more as a PF in halfcourt sets (even before the Domantas Sabonis news).
It’s important to note here that this game does have some tanking potential for the 76ers. Going to the sixth seed would likely set them up with the Celtics (maybe Miami), but they would avoid the Bucks in the second round. Ben at the PF looks like a smashing success early, and he wasn’t even making shots in the scrimmages, especially without Shake. In 30 minutes with Shake in the scrimmages, Ben put up a 22/12/8 line on 44.4 FG% and without Shake he was at 8/15/12 on brutal 27.3 FG%. With a possibly limited Embiid and the Pacers having nobody capable of guarding him, it could be a monster Ben evening. Embiid is a little tricky with some minutes limits possibly on him, but he has smashed on Turner (40/15/4 per 36 in 20 minutes this season, 29/16/6 in 71 2018-19). Maybe you can fire him up in a GPP because you’ll probably never get ownership this low. Korkmaz being terrible doesn’t really mean much fantasy wise because it’s tough to lean on Thybulle or Burks, but potentially it could increase the minutes for Tobias, J-Rich and maybe even Shake.
Not really much to Indy here because you’re pretty much playing the Pacers with hopes of volume. As mentioned in the rotation notes, McMillan mentioned that he thought his guys might top out at eight minutes. However, in the second scrimmage during the third quarter, Brogdon, Dipo, Aaron Holiday, Warren and Turner all played the full 12 (+9! Woo; Turner’s first scrimmage, too). The minutes should still be there for Holiday, Warren and Turner in a tough matchup. Generally, these new Philly lineups looked really tough to find space, so it could get really ugly for the Pacers O. Turner was shut out in 20 minutes against Embiid this season, and he didn’t fare well against him last year in 71 minutes (11/7/1, 3.6 blocks though). The upside is there and he does look great, but he’s a high-risk, high-reward play with some big minutes. T.J. McConnell revenge game all day, and he did drop a double-double on them on Dec. 31.
Matchup Helps: Ben Simmons, Shake Milton, Josh Richardson
Matchup Hurts: Myles Turner, T.J. Warren
Los Angeles Lakers (109.3) vs. Toronto Raptors (105.8)
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Lakers 10th, Raptors 9th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Lakers 20th, Raptors 27th
Orlando scrimmages overall pace (of 22): Lakers 19th, Raptors 11th
Lakers expected starters: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, LeBron James, JaVale McGee
Raptors expected starters: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Serge Ibaka
Injury news: LeBron James (groin) is probable, Anthony Davis (eye) is probable, Kyle Kuzma (ankle) is probable, Norman Powell (knee) is doubtful, Oshae Brissett (knee) is doubtful.
Lakers rotation notes: AD saw a very nice 69% of his minutes at center on Thursday (39% on the season), Kuzma played with AD and LeBron for just six minutes (5.4 per game when used on year).
Raptors rotation notes: The Raptors used a lot of big lineups in the scrimmages and it may be tough to draw conclusions from that because it was experimental Nick Nurse again.
It was the AD show against the Clippers and it wasn’t just in the box score. AD had 13 post ups and 52 frontcourt touches (9 and 42 season average), and the move to more center minutes is huge for him. In his 749 minutes without Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee, AD puts up a per-36 line of 31/11/3 with 1.6 steals, 1.4 treys and 3.5 blocks (over 60 FD points). Still, the Raptors are an outstanding interior defense, and they’ll be focusing on AD after all eyeballs were on him demolishing the Clippers frontcourt on Thursday. The Raptors have also held Bron in check in the Nurse era with only an 18/2/6 line and a 29/6/8 line in two losses. Dion Waiters looked great on Thursday, but coach Frank Vogel didn’t really say much to make it seem like he was safe. Even against a bigger Toronto lineup, it’s really tough to look at the centers. Kuzma getting to 32 minutes with only six minutes next to AD and Bron is a really good sign because he’s been horrible per minute when next to both of them, so Vogel finding a way to get him up could be big. Still, this isn’t exactly the best matchup for him.
Back before the scrimmages, there was some buzz of the Raptors looking to try out a lineup with Pascal Siakam and Norman Powell in the backcourt, and that really set the tone for Nurse Nurse going galaxy brain with scrimmage lineups. Still, he openly admitted he tries to keep himself in check, so we may not see much on that front. One thing we do know is that the Raptors are going to run a ridiculously tight rotation, and they may up OG’s minutes to put him on LeBron as much as possible. There was a big OG hype piece on his offense expanding, so some added volume in playing time could give him a chance. The Lakers first-unit defense can be tough for many teams, but there could be an opportunity for Norm Powell in the second unit. Norm loves to run as one of the best scorers in transition, and he was the best guard qualifier in 2P% so far this season. Siakam going up against AD is dangerous business, especially after the way AD was drawing whistles on Thursday.
Matchup Helps: OG Anunoby (note: non-matchup point of more AD at C helps)
Matchup Hurts: Pascal Siakam
