You don’t have to play cash games to understand why it’s important to grasp them. Players we consider for cash are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo and feature a relatively tight range of outcomes. In other words, these are the best plays on the board once price, slate context and positional depth is accounted for. Those sound like pretty good options for GPPs as well.
The optimal GPP lineup will mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership or game stacks or correlation. In large-field tournaments, our ACO (average cumulative ownership) should stay reasonably low.
With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: Median projection, matchup, upside and value. Ownership is not considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations.” They are listed in price descending order (NOT ranked by “best play”). At the bottom, you’ll find suggested rankings by site once salary is accounted for.
Injuries:
*Aron Baynes (knee) — Out
*Elie Okobo (ankle) — Out
*Kelly Oubre (knee) — Doubtful
*Seth Curry (leg) — Probable
*Luka Doncic (ankle) — Out
*Kristaps Porzingis (knee) — Out
*Dorian Finney-Smith (hip) — Out
*Donovan Mitchell (leg) — Questionable
*Juwan Morgan (knee) — Probable
*Nigel Williams-Goss (ankle) — Out
*Giannis Antetokounmpo (tooth) — Probable
*T.J. Warren (foot) — Questionable
*Jimmy Butler (foot) — Questionable, expected to play
*Goran Dragic (ankle) — Questionable, expected to play
*Kendrick Nunn (personal) — Out
*KZ Okpala (personal) — Out
*Will Barton (knee) — Out
*Gary Harris (hip) — Out
*Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (foot) — Out
*Anthony Davis (ankle) — Probable
*LeBron James (groin) — Probable
*Alex Caruso (neck) — Probable
*Markieff Morris (hip) — Probable
*Dwight Howard (knee) — Probable
*Danny Green (hip) — Probable
Incentives/Back-to-Backs
Playoff Hunting: Phoenix Suns
Seeding motivation: Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat
No Motivation: Dallas Mavericks, Utah Jazz, Oklahoma City Thunder, Toronto Raptors, Milwaukee Bucks, Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Lakers
Front End: Phoenix Suns, Dallas Mavericks,
Back End: Oklahoma City Thunder, Toronto Raptors
Point Guard
Malcolm Brogdon ($6,900 DK/$6,700 FD) – The Miami/Indiana game is the one game on the slate where we can see clear motivation for both teams. The 4/5 seeds in the Eastern Conference are trying to hold onto those spots and avoid playing the Boston Celtics in round one. They’re each currently a game up on the 76ers and the two teams play each other in two of their last three games. Despite some quotes around fatigue, Brogdon played 39 minutes last time out against the Lakers and has now cleared 33 or more minutes in every game in the bubble. The matchup is slightly below average according to our DVP baselines but the price tag remains compelling given Brogdon’s heavy workload.
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