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This week is going to be very wacky, so always remember that big minutes in a bad matchup will be much more attractive than iffy minutes in a great matchup. In today’s slate, it’s really just Phoenix as a team with a lot to play for, so getting guaranteed minutes is the most valuable aspect of the slate. The Jazz could try to get a win today with hopes of moving up to the No. 5 seed, and the Thunder also could use a win either to move up to No. 4 or hold their position at five. The Pacers and Heat are also battling for positioning in the 4-6 range. The Lakers, Mavs, Raptors and Bucks basically have nothing to play for, so their situations could be dicey. With that, this edition of NBA Matchups is going to be a little more internal for each team to get a better idea of how the minutes could look, because we really aren’t too sure on who players will be matched up against.

 

UPDATE: OKC announced Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams and Nerlens Noel are out for this early game.


Oklahoma City Thunder (B2B) vs. Phoenix Suns (-5, B2B), 2:30 pm ET
Team Totals: Thunder 109.5, Suns 114.5
Pace rank: Thunder 21st, Suns 9th
Thunder expected starters: Chris Paul, Hamidou Diallo, Luguentz Dort, Darius Bazley, Mike Muscala (note: Diallo might come off the bench here, but he’s still a strong play)
Suns expected starters: Ricky Rubio, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Deandre Ayton

Injury news: Kelly Oubre (knee) is doubtful, Elie Okobo (ankle) is out, Aron Baynes is out, and the Thunder haven’t submitted their injury report yet (Adams and Noel missed Sunday).

Thunder rotation notes: OKC starters played deep into garbage time on Sunday with SGA getting pulled first, Adams and Noel were late scratches on Sunday (Muscala started).

Suns rotation notes: Jevon Carter and Mikal Bridges played the full fourth on Saturday (Carter basically took Cam Johnson’s minutes), Heat looked to have game-planned to limit Ayton, Suns only had a “very, very light” practice to get ready for the back-to-back set.

*Devin Booker has a 33.5 usage rate in Disney and he’s the leader in that department among players with 30-plus minutes per game. Booker’s minutes per game are a tick below his season average because of some foul trouble, so he could spike today. His 6.4 assists per game in the bubble are no fluke at 13.4 potential assists per game (slightly up per minute compared to before shutdown). He is very likely going to get low-key bubble stud Luguentz Dort, but the volume should be there and Booker isn’t as much of a downhill guy like some of the others Dort has held in check. If you’re sold on playing Book because he’s the safest stud, you might want to root for some Dort rest.

*If Lu Dort does shut down Book, it’s a wide-open situation. The storyline of an offensive Mikal Bridges couldn’t have been a bigger flop with his 12.1 usage rate in the bubble after his 21.1 in the scrimmages. He’s coming off 39 minutes as easily Phoenix’s best perimeter defender, so he’s a really solid option on just volume. Ricky Rubio could also have a favorable matchup if CP3 sits.

*Darius Bazley had six minutes next to Muscala on Sunday and 26 total minutes for his career-high 23 points. Even with his increased playing time, Bazley has hit a 21.5 usage rate in each of his last two games, and those two are the first two games he’s cleared 20.0 USG% of his 18 games with 20-plus minutes.

 

Dallas Mavericks (B2B) vs. Utah Jazz (-7.5), 3:00 pm ET
Team Totals: Mavericks 109.3, Jazz 116.8
Pace rank: Mavericks 18th, Jazz 22nd
Mavericks expected starters: Trey Burke, Seth Curry, Tim Hardaway Jr., Justin Jackson, Boban Marjanovic (note: Carlisle has been wild, I don’t feel confident in his one, Maxi Kleber should still see big minutes)
Jazz expected starters: Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, Royce O’Neale, Rudy Gobert

Injury news: Luka Doncic (rest) is out, Kristaps Porzingis (rest) won’t play, Dorian Finney-Smith (hip) will not play, Seth Curry (leg) is probable, Donovan Mitchell (leg) is questionable, Juwan Morgan (knee) is probable, and Nigel Williams-Goss (ankle) is out.

Mavericks rotation notes: The Mavs will have a new rotation without their three best players.

Jazz rotation notes: Snyder said the last game against the Nuggets was played at a high level, Snyder has talked about wanting his guys to be fresh for the playoffs.

*The Mavs offense basically becomes a gun-to-horse emoji combo without Luka and KP. Luka’s bubble-leading 11.4 minutes of touch time will be missed, and the next closest Mav for this game is Trey Burke’s 2.1 minutes (J.J. Barea 2.0, Delon Wright 1.8).

*Tim Hardaway Jr. has 320 minutes on the court without Luka and KP, putting up a per-36 line of 23.0 points, 3.7 boards, 3.2 dimes and 3.6 treys on a 26.4 usage rate (16.9 with them). The guard next to THJ in this time has been Delon Wright for 218 minutes, putting up a 12/6/7 line (obviously Burke wasn’t part of it with his recent signing). 

*Seth Curry was also fairly productive in the seven-game stretch without Luka, putting up 18.4 points, 4.0 boards, 2.8 dimes and 3.8 treys in 27.3 minutes. That was also with KP out there for five of those seven games, too.

 

Toronto Raptors (B2B) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (-6, B2B), 6:30 pm ET
Team Totals: Raptors 110.3, Bucks 116.3
Pace rank: Raptors 14th, Bucks 1st
Raptors expected starters: Terence Davis II, Matt Thomas, Malcolm Miller, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Chris Boucher (Note: Banking on heavy rest here with no previous rest and this being a back-to-back set) 
Bucks expected starters:  Eric Bledsoe, Wes Matthews, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez

Injury news: The Raptors have not submitted their injury report and have a very good chance to sit guys, Giannis Antetokounmpo (tooth) is probable.

Raptors rotation notes: The Raptors look to have their rotation figured out with it being an eight-man unit for the playoffs (starters, Norman Powell , Terence Davis III, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson).

Bucks rotation notes: Budenholzer talked about lack of execution in loss to Mavs, Brook Lopez said he and the team learned a lot from being in a close game with the Mavs.

*Nick Nurse said yesterday that his “gut feeling” is “you’ll see a little bit of everything” over the last three games. That means there will be some rest, more guys playing, and limited minutes. He didn’t reveal the exact plan, but it’s likely a mix of rest and rhythm, per Raptors beat Blake Murphy. There’s a very good chance they sit guys today. Definitely check out Top Plays throughout the day as we get news, but you’d think Terence Davis II and Chris Boucher would be the most attractive if there is mass rest.

*Coach Mike Budenholzer isn’t quite as up front. Most DFS players know about how he didn’t play his guys in the second half against the Nets and pulled Brook Lopez at the last minute. In a back-to-back set against a team that looks like the Bucks’ biggest competition, there’s likely some funny business here.

*Adding to the Brook note in the rotation section, he had an interesting quote on how the Bucks are playing. “I think we feel like we’re ready for the playoffs,” Lopez said. “It’s not really in our DNA as a team to go out there and just walk through these next three games.

 

Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat (-2.5), 8:00 pm ET
Team Totals: Pacers 108.8, Heat 111.3
Pace rank: Pacers 23rd, Heat 27th
Pacers expected starters: Malcolm Brogdon, Aaron Holiday, Victor Oladipo, T.J. Warren, Myles Turner
Heat expected starters: Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Kelly Olynyk, Bam Adebayo

Injury news: Kendrick Nunn (personal) remains out, Goran Dragic (ankle) and Jimmy Butler (foot) are expected to play after going through practice, KZ Okpala (personal) is out.

Pacers rotation notes: McMillan has been the hardest coach to read in the bubble, Oladipo called Aaron Holidaythe unsung hero” of the team, starters have played some pretty heavy minutes.

Heat rotation notes: Heat adding “built-in action” for Duncan Robinson and Bam said the Heat “can’t have our best shooter on the team only getting four shots” after a win over Boston, Jimmy and Goran Dragic coming back take ball-handling chances away from Bam, Herro, Iguodala and Gabe Vincent.

The best narrative of the bubble should happen today. Jimmy Butler called T.J. Warren “trash,” “soft,” and said he’s not even on his level and nowhere near him. He even posted on IG when the Pacers were on the schedule again (it was Mar. 20 before shutdown).

*On the flip side of it, there’s the bubble’s top scorer in Warren with his 34.8 points per game. Warren has smashed in all but one of his five games when Mikal Bridges held him in check, putting up 32-plus points in the other four. He was listed on the injury report with a foot issue on Saturday, but he played a whopping 37 minutes even after coach Nate McMillan said with a laugh that things could change on his players’ statuses.

*Bam Adebayo said earlier this month that he wasn’t bouncing back from COVID-19 like he had hoped, and it’s showing in his minutes with only a max of 32 and hitting just 30 against the Suns in the last one. He was also upset about the loss to the Suns. “We’ve got to get over this hump,” Bam said Saturday. “We’re in this cloud, this gray cloud we can’t get out of and it’s my job as a leader and as a quote, unquote, vet to really hone in and lead this team to a victory even though we got two major guys out.” Based on that, you’d think the Heat come out swinging today against a team they’re very likely to face in the first round.

 

Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-5), 9:00 pm ET
Team Totals: Nuggets 108, Lakers 113
Pace rank: Nuggets 29th, Lakers 11th
Nuggets expected starters: Jamal Murray, Torrey Craig, Michael Porter Jr., Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic
Lakers expected starters: Alex Caruso, Danny Green, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, JaVale McGee (note: Good chance Kyle Kuzma starts over McGee)

Injury news: Gary Harris (hip) is out, Will Barton (knee) is out, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will not play, and the Lakers have a ton of probable players in LeBron James (groin), Anthony Davis (ankle), Markieff Morris (hip), Dwight Howard (knee), Danny Green (hip) and Alex Caruso (neck).

Nuggets rotation notes: Jamal Murray said he had a 22-minutes limit on Saturday and went to 39 minutes in the 2OT game.

Lakers rotation notes: Vogel revealed that he will not simulate a playoff rotation for this game (more below), Lakers offense ranks last in the bubble, Vogel said KCP is “fine”.

*Jamal Murray getting 39 minutes after a hammy issue is really playing with fire for Mike Malone. “I totally blew threw that,” Malone said. Murray also talked about not being in shape yet. Murray looked to be grabbing at his hammy throughout the second half, which made playing him big minutes even more strange. Murray was extremely ball-dominant with 8.7 minutes of touch time and he was way more aggressive in getting to the basket with nine attempts off drives. Still, you’d think Malone had a chat with medical and likely will limit him.  

*LeBron James said it’s important for him to get more comfortable playing in an empty gym. LeBron’s playing time has been consistently right near 35 minutes in every game except for when he lost about five minutes to garbage time in a blowout loss to the Thunder. 

*Coach Frank Vogel said the starting lineup “has struggled” but he doesn’t feel like JaVale has been off his game. With Vogel admitting that this game will not mimic a playoff rotation, really all bets are off on what he could do. Vogel has also talked about how teams can manage their players however they like, and it looked like he himself wasn’t going to use the Clippers plan to sit guys out at the end of games. Vogel has said he won’t play his key guys too many minutes in games, too. He has also alluded to wanting to figure out how to get Kyle Kuzma in there more often for his rotation. Meanwhile, coach Mike Malone has not been consistent. He’s pulled his guys down the stretch of tight games to get guys like Keita Bates-Diop minutes over Nikola Jokic, and then there’s the Jamal stuff noted above. It’s risky business trusting a wild card of a coach in these restart games.