We’re back with the second set of Game 1 action, and the slate kicks off with the biggest spread of the first round. The Bucks offense is so good that they’ll still likely be able to get theirs even if they are up 15-plus coming into the third, and we know that Giannis Antetokounmpo can still smash in just 30 minutes anyway. The later games also project to be much tighter, and hitting overtime in the Nuggets-Jazz game put a lot of people over the top.
Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks (-12), 1:30 pm ET
Team totals: Magic 106.5, Bucks 118.5
Season series: 4-0 Bucks
Pace Ranks: Magic 26th, Bucks 1st
Defensive Ranks: Magic 11th, Bucks 1st
Injury News: Mo Bamba is out for season, Magic officials expect Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross to play and had a full practice on Saturday, Aaron Gordon (hamstring) said “I’ll be ready” on playing in Game 1 and was limited, Michael Carter-Williams was in a walking boot on Saturday.
Magic Expected Starters: Markelle Fultz, Evan Fournier, James Ennis, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic
Bucks Expected Starters: Eric Bledsoe, Wesley Matthews, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez
Magic Rotation Notes: James Ennis and coach Steve Clifford said they want the Magic to shoot 3s vs. the Bucks, Magic expect Bucks to sag off Markelle Fultz and Clifford said Fultz’s shooting confidence is back, Clifford said he wants the team to rebound, get to the line, Clifford talked up how Gordon defends Giannis, Clifford said Khem Birch will guard Giannis at times.
Bucks Rotation Notes: Giannis got a 1.5 minutes boost in the playoffs last year (30.4 minutes this year, 34.3 last playoffs, 32.8 last regular season), Middleton got a 2.2 increase, those increases are a tad low because of all the blowouts in the first two rounds (Giannis was up to 38.5 against the Raptors, Middleton to 36.8), Bud went nine deep in the playoffs.
*No player has guarded Giannis more than Aaron Gordon this year. Gordon has actually been great on GA, keeping him down on both usage and efficiency on the partial possessions compared to the other top 50 players who have guarded Giannis. Still, Giannis was extremely productive in 69 minutes with Gordon on the floor against him, putting up a per-36 line of 28.9 points, 18.4 boards, 7.9 dimes and 1.6 blocks. Giannis also leads the bubble in usage rate by a mile at 37.4, and he led in rebounding rate at 21.3% (min. 24 minutes per game, 124 qualifiers).
*Vooch has actually fared very well against Brook Lopez in the last two seasons, putting up a per-36 line of 32/14/3 in 58 minutes against him in 2018-19 and a 21/10/6 line in 73 minutes this year. The Bucks on paper look like a nightmare matchup for Vooch, but maybe he can put up a big line with so many Magic players missing time last week. Of course the Magic will have to keep it close for him to truly smash.
*On top of the Fultz notes in the rotation section above, coach Steve Clifford compared Fultz to Tony Parker for how he can get by players. The Bucks do allow a lot of drives to the basket, but of course they shut it down on most players. Fultz was also really busy in his last four games with a 28.2 usage rate. Although, Fultz has lost his touch on his jumper lately, making just 7-of-29 of his shots outside of the paint in those four.
Matchup Helps: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez, Markelle Fultz
Matchup Hurts: Aaron Gordon
Miami Heat (-4) vs. Indiana Pacers, 4:00 pm ET
Team totals: Heat 110.5, Pacers 106.5
Season series: 3-1 Heat (one MIA loss was when everyone rested)
Pace Ranks: Heat 27th, Pacers 22nd
Defensive Ranks: Heat 12th, Pacers 6th
Injury News: Jae Crowder (knee) practiced Saturday and should be good to go, T.J. Warren (foot) is questionable with plantar fasciitis and is fully expected to play.
Heat Expected Starters: Goran Dragic, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Bam Adebayo
Pacers Expected Starters: Malcolm Brogdon, Aaron Holiday, Victor Oladipo, T.J. Warren, Myles Turner
Heat Rotation Notes: Bam said he wants to cover guards in the playoffs, Kendrick Nunn confirmed he is coming off the bench, second unit likely to be Nunn, Andre Iguodala and Kelly Olynyk with a mix on the ninth man (even if they go that deep).
Pacers Rotation Notes: Aaron Holiday coming off the bench in the last game is interesting considering how much McMillan preaches continuity.
*Jimmy Butler narratives are the best narratives after calling T.J. Warren soft and not on his level. Jimmy has some pretty good numbers in 80 minutes with Warren on the floor, putting up a per-36 line of 21/10/6 with 3.2 steals (big volume at foul line). Meanwhile, Warren has really struggled in those 80 at a 14/5/1 line with only 0.5 steals. Jimmy was consistently playing 16-17 minutes in the first halves of scrimmages even when he was limited with a foot injury, so he should be set for his normal huge volume. He was playing around 20 minutes in the first half of the playoffs last year with the 76ers, and Spo should be good with him getting up there in playing time again. Butler has also been a more aggressive scorer when he’s next to Dragic, putting up a 26.0 usage rate with him compared to 23.5 without him.
*Bam’s numbers weren’t all that eye-popping against the Pacers, averaging just 15.3 points, 11.0 boards, 4.7 dimes and 1.3 blocks over 29.0 minutes per game. Bam was a little limited in the scrimmages but he was still able to get up to 16 minutes in the first half of his last game, so he should be good for minutes in the upper 30s if it’s close. He did have a decent sample of Myles guarding him and he fared well on volume and just OK efficiency. Bam is significantly more efficient as a scorer with Dragic at a 63.9 TS% with him and a 57.3 TS% without him (1.2 usage rate dip).
*The Pacers are missing their top two scorers per game against the Heat with Domantas Sabonis and Jeremy Lamb both sidelined. Turner is going to have to deal with Bam a whole bunch in this series, so he’ll really have to hit his 3-pointers to scorer in the 15-20 range most games. The Heat defense with their starting lineup is excellent with a 92.5 defensive rating over 51 minutes
Matchup Helps: Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic
Matchup Hurts: T.J. Warren, Myles Turner
Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (-1) , 6:30 pm ET
Team totals: Rockets 113, Thunder 114
Season series: 2-1 Thunder
Pace Ranks: Thunder 21st, Rockets 2nd
Defensive Ranks: Thunder 7th, Rockets 15th
Injury News: Russell Westbrook expected to miss multiple games in this series, Luguentz Dort (knee) will not play.
Thunder Expected Starters: Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Dennis Schroder, Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams
Rockets Expected Starters: James Harden, Eric Gordon, Danuel House, Robert Covington, P.J. Tucker
Thunder Rotation Notes: Schroder may have to guard Harden in crunch time if Dort can’t play.
Rockets Rotation Notes: The Rockets had Clint Capela out there in all three games against the Thunder, Westbrook also played in all three.
*James Harden went 2-of-13 from the field against Luguentz Dort defense (1-of-11 from three, three free throws) and 1-of-7 vs. either Schroder or SGA. Not having Dort out there for Harden is huge, and Schroder will likely have to guard him. In 160 minutes without Russ and no traditional center, Harden has a per-36 line of 43.1 points, 8.3 boards and 6.5 dimes. James Harden used with a Jeff Green PNR combo has a 1.46 points per possession, and coach D’Antoni seemed to be sold on that chemistry.
*Danilo Gallinari was very productive in three games against the Rockets, averaging a team-high 21.7 points with 10.0 boards, 2.3 dimes and 3.0 treys. Gallo also saw a 3.3 minutes increase in the playoffs last year, and his minutes should be back up after being held in check for most of this season.
*Coach Mike D’Antoni has previously said that Gordon is “one of the better defenders in the league, without a doubt” and is expected to guard Chris Paul. Gordon has not really guarded CP3 much in his career obviously because they were teammates for a while, and Gordon has been injured a lot. CP3 has hit the 35-minute mark 12 times this season, including a season-high 39 minutes in an OT loss to the Nuggets on Aug. 3. CP3 has also really seen his ball-handling chances rise in the bubble, sitting at 23.3% of touch time per minute from 19.2% of touch time per minute before the shutdown. He gets a revenge game and should carve up Gordon with surgical precision all game.
*Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was finally coming out of his slump that started the bubble. He is still extremely aggressive with his 17.0 drives per game in the bubble, putting him at No. 6 in drives per minute (among top-50 drivers). The Rockets were also below average on points allowed per drive on the season, and he’s likely going to have a favorable matchup.
Matchup Helps: Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Steven Adams, James Harden (no Dort)
Matchup Hurts: Dennis Schroder (foul risk on Harden)
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-5), 9:00 pm ET
Team totals: Blazers 111.5, Lakers 116.5
Season series: 2-1 Lakers
Pace Ranks: Blazers 13th, Lakers 11th
Defensive Ranks: Blazers 27th, Lakers 3rd
Injury News: Zach Collins (ankle) will not play, Rajon Rondo (thumb) is doubtful, and the Lakers listed LeBron James (groin) and Anthony Davis (knee) as probable per usual.
Blazers Expected Starters: Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Carmelo Anthony, Wenyen Gabriel, Jusuf Nurkic
Lakers Expected Starters: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, JaVale McGee
Blazers Rotation Notes: Dame said Gabriel is expected to start and Gabriel has started at PF in previous matchups against the Lakers (Jan. 31, 12.7 minutes, Melo was out).
Lakers Rotation Notes: The Lakers aren’t concerned with their poor offense after their starters had the worst O rating in the seeding games (74.4 over 41 minutes, min. 20 minutes), Lakers hoping their D will make up for it.
*Dame has torched the Lakers in three games, averaging 36.0 points, 6.0 boards, 9.0 dimes, 1.0 steals, 2.7 turnovers and 4.3 treys in 40.1 minutes per game. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope said he has been scouting Dame, and the Lakers could also use Danny Green on him at times. Dame’s lowest-scoring game of the three was when Avery Bradley was out, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was guarding him. The Lakers’ pick-and-roll defense is one of the best in the league, and Dame had one of the best PNR ball-handler scoring seasons ever. The Lakers have been vulnerable at times with guards getting big lines, with PG/SGs putting up seven of the top 10 FD points per game against them this year (Giannis, Whiteside, Cody Zeller (?) the exceptions). We know Dame is going to play a ton after 45 minutes in the play-in game and 44 against the Nets, so even all the trapping in the world may not limit him.
*The Lakers lit up the Blazers all season with 127.7 points per game against them, so their struggling offense in the bubble catches a great matchup. Both AD and LeBron put up huge lines over three games each with LeBron posting a 25/7/11 line and AD at 32/11/4. The Blazers’ old starting group had a horrible 127.7 defensive rating. After LeBron said he was still adjusting to playing in an empty arena, both he and AD could have a get-right game on the offensive side. Melo having to guard LeBron sounds like a nightmare for the Blazers. Davis also dropped 37, 16 boards, six dimes and five blocks in the last game against Gabriel as the starter, so it could be a huge game for him, too.
*The Blazers used some Nurk with Hassan Whiteside in the middle of the first and third quarters against the Grizzlies after only using it for three total minutes in the eight seeding game. After Dame said he thought it would be Wenyen, he said “it will be by committee” at PF, so there’s likely going to be some Melo at the four with plenty of Gary Trent Jr. C.J. McCollum did struggle against the Lakers this year and the same for Melo, so Dame could be extra busy with McCollum playing through a back injury.
Matchup Helps: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kyle Kuzma
Matchup Hurts: Jusuf Nurkic
